WULF: Shorting the Rebound Into 9.0–9.2 Supply for a Drop to the 8.30 Fib Confluence

Comprehensive multi-technique analysis on TeraWulf Inc. (WULF) – horizon: next 24 hours

Context and what just happened

• Regime shift: WULF exploded from a multi-week 4.8–5.4 consolidation to a high of 10.71 on 8/18 after the 8/14 gap-and-run (volume 289M). That is a parabolic extension typical of beta-to-Bitcoin miners.
• The last two sessions show distribution: 8/18 printed a long upper-wick day (10.71 → 9.38 close) on heavy volume (162M), and 8/19 closed 8.78 with persistent intraday supply. This is classic post-climax digestion.
• Intraday (8/19): price repeatedly failed at 9.15–9.20 and stayed sub-VWAP most of the day. The day’s low 8.68 fills the 8/18 gap and sits right at a key retracement pivot.

Price structure, trends, and key levels

• Primary trend (daily): firmly up since early June; higher highs and higher lows. However, the last 2 days: momentum cooling and first signs of a corrective wave.
• Immediate structure (daily): 10.71 (swing high) → 8.68 (pullback low). Current price 8.78 is below prominent intraday supply at 9.10–9.20.
• Support: 8.68 (8/19 intraday floor), 8.50 (round/volume node), 8.26 (61.8% Fib from 6.74→10.71), 7.90–7.60 (78.6% Fib zone).
• Resistance: 8.95–9.20 (post-gap supply and 38.2%/intraday rejection band), 9.36, 9.50, 9.77 (23.6% Fib), then 10.00–10.10.

Gaps and candlesticks

• 8/14 gap-up (5.46 → open 7.20, low 6.74) left a large open gap below; often these serve as long-term magnets but not necessarily in the next 24h.
• 8/18 candle: long upper wick/shooting-star-like on heavy volume → exhaustion signal.
• 8/19: gap-fill of 8/18, lower highs intraday, closes under supply; suggests sellers still control the tape in the near term.

Moving average landscape (approximations)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 8.26, 10-day SMA ≈ 6.71, 20-day SMA ≈ ~5.1–5.4 (rising sharply). Price remains stretched above medium-term MAs, implying room for mean reversion; immediate mean (5SMA) sits right on 8.26 Fib confluence.
• EMA cluster: 8-EMA likely near 7.8–8.2 and 21-EMA near 6.0–6.5; price still above, but compression is underway after the blow-off.
• Read: Short-term pullback toward the rising 5–8 EMA/SMA cluster is statistically probable.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): likely cooling from overbought (mid/high-70s) to high-60s; still positive but rolling over—typical of a bull-flag or ABC correction forming.
• Hourly RSI: hovered ~40–45 intraday with weak bounces—shows bearish intraday momentum but not deeply oversold (leaves room for another leg down before a stronger bounce).
• Stochastics (H1/H4): crossed down and remain sub-midline; a bounce toward 9.0–9.2 would likely reset them into a better short entry zone.
• Read: Momentum inflecting down short-term despite an intact higher-timeframe uptrend.

MACD and histogram

• Daily MACD: positive, but histogram peaked on 8/18 and ticked lower on 8/19—early bearish momentum divergence after a vertical run.
• Hourly MACD: below signal for most of 8/19; attempted cross-ups failed at 9.15–9.20—bearish continuation bias.

Volatility frameworks

• ATR(14) daily has expanded markedly post-breakout (approx 1.1–1.5). A 24h swing of 5–12% is plausible. Today’s realized range fits that.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): price moved from riding the upper band to re-entering the bands; mean reversion pressure increases toward the middle band (near 20SMA), but given rapid band expansion the practical short-term magnet is the 5SMA/61.8% confluence around 8.26.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): price pulled back from +2 to near +1 KC; room exists to test the mid-channel on a further dip.

Volume, flow, and breadth

• Volume profile (recent): heavy volume transacted between 8.9–9.3 on 8/19, creating a near-term supply node. Acceptance below that node shifts the fairest price lower.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution: explosion with 8/14 spike, followed by slight distribution the last two sessions—net still positive but marginally deteriorating near-term.
• Chaikin Money Flow (daily): likely peaked and started to recede; not a sell signal by itself, but confirms momentum distribution.

VWAPs and intraday positioning

• Session VWAP (8/19): price spent most of the day below VWAP; rallies to VWAP were sold. Closing sub-VWAP maintains intraday bearish bias into next open.
• Anchored VWAP from 8/14 gap day: estimate around 9.0–9.1 after the subsequent run and pullback. 9.0–9.2 zone acting as dynamic supply; failure to reclaim on strength favors one more leg lower.

Fibonacci mapping (6.74 → 10.71 swing)

• 23.6%: 9.77 (upper resistance)
• 38.2%: 9.19 (tested and sold intraday)
• 50%: 8.73 (current battleground; close 8.78 ≈ at this level)
• 61.8%: 8.26 (next strong support and 5SMA confluence)
• 78.6%: 7.59 (deeper corrective line in sand if risk-off accelerates)
• Takeaway: Failure to hold 50% (8.73 area) on a sustained basis often invites a probe of 61.8% (≈8.26).

Elliott wave lens (heuristic)

• Wave 1–2 base in early August, Wave 3 climax likely 10.71 on 8/18. The last two sessions resemble a Wave 4 corrective sequence.
• Typical Wave 4 objectives cluster around 38.2–50% of Wave 3; 8.73 is already touched, while 8.26 (61.8%) is a frequent “max pain” for a sharp vertical Wave 3 before Wave 5 attempts a retest.

Ichimoku snapshot (daily, approximated)

• Price > Cloud; Tenkan (9-mid) ≈ (HH 10.71 + LL ~4.76) / 2 ≈ 7.74; Kijun (26-mid) ≈ ~7.0.
• With price at 8.78, there’s room to mean revert toward Tenkan (~7.7) if 8.26 breaks later; for the next 24h, the magnet level is closer to 8.26 per confluence.

Stat/regression perspective

• 30-session linear regression slope strongly positive; current price pulled back from >+2σ to ~+1σ region. Z-score normalization implies more downside room before reloading the trend.

Pattern read-through

• After a parabolic run, we’re carving a high-and-tight flag/ABC pullback. The inability to sustain above 9.15–9.20 intraday and the low-volume rally attempts indicate sellers are still distributing into strength.

Market microstructure and scenario tree (next 24 hours)

• Overnight/Pre-market: Expect whipsaw under 9.00 with sellers defending 9.10–9.20.
• Cash open potential sequences:
  1. Pop-and-fade: Early bounce to 8.95–9.15 gets sold → break of 8.68 → extension to 8.40–8.30. Probability ~55%.
  2. Range hold: 8.68–9.20 oscillation, close near 8.70–8.90 as market digests. Probability ~30%.
  3. Squeeze reclaim: Strong bid pushes sustained >9.20 → 9.50 test. Probability ~15% (requires external tailwind, e.g., BTC strength).
• Expected 24h range: roughly 8.20–9.30, skewed to the downside early. Base case close bias: 8.55–8.75.

Confluences favoring a tactical short into strength

• 9.0–9.2 supply zone aligns with rejected hourly highs, session/anchored VWAP overhang, and 38.2% Fib band.
• Current close near 50% Fib (8.73) with weak intraday momentum. If 50% can’t be reclaimed decisively, the magnet is 61.8% (8.26) where 5SMA also sits.
• MACD histogram roll-down and sub-VWAP action reinforce fading bounces for one more leg lower before a higher-timeframe trend resumption.

Risk management, invalidation, and timing

• Tactical plan: Sell strength near 8.95–9.05 into well-defined supply. Target the 8.30–8.26 confluence zone. Invalidation on a sustained reclaim above 9.50 (back above 8/19 intraday supply sweep and towards 9.77).
• Proposed stop (for planning): 9.52 (above supply shelf and round-psychological 9.50). Risk ≈ 0.54 vs reward ≈ 0.70 (to 8.28), R:R ≈ 1.3.
• Slippage/volatility: ATR suggests fast moves; use limit entries on bounces and partials into lows.

24-hour directional call

• Bias: Down first, then possible stabilization. Expect a retest/breach of 8.68, extension toward 8.30–8.26 where buyers likely defend. End-of-day could see a rebound, but net path-of-least-resistance is lower from 8.78.

Bottom line

• The higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact, but near-term indicators (fib structure, intraday VWAP rejections, momentum roll-over, distribution footprints) favor a tactical short into 9.0–9.2 with a take-profit centered on 8.30–8.26. After that, reassess for a potential long setup if tape stabilizes and BTC backdrop cooperates.