BTC Post-Liquidation Bounce Looks Like a Sell-the-Rally Setup: Retest Supply, Then Fade

Market context (data scope)

• Current price (spot reference): $76,137.79 (2026-02-03 21:58Z)
• Data provided:
  • Daily candles: 2025-11-06 → 2026-02-03
  • Hourly candles: 2026-02-02 22:00Z → 2026-02-03 21:58Z

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1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis

1.1 Daily structure (primary trend)

• From early Nov (~$103k–$107k) to now $76k, BTC is in a clear daily downtrend.
• Key sequence on the daily chart:
  • Lower highs after the mid-Jan peak near $97,860 (2026-01-14 high).
  • Lower lows accelerating into late Jan/early Feb.
• The late-Jan breakdown is decisive:
  • 2026-01-29 close ~$84,562 (big risk-off day)
  • 2026-01-31 low ~$75,816 close ~$78,621 (waterfall continuation)
  • 2026-02-01 low ~$75,699 close ~$76,974 (weak bounce)
  • 2026-02-03 daily low ~$73,072 close ~$76,138 (capitulation-like intraday sweep, but close still below key resistances)

Conclusion (daily): dominant bias remains bearish until price reclaims broken support zones (now resistance).

1.2 Hourly structure (tactical trend)

Last ~24h shows:

• Early hours: range-to-drift down from ~79k toward ~78k.
• Mid-session: sharp impulsive selloff:
  • 16:00 close ~76,518
  • 17:00 close ~74,846
  • 18:00 close ~73,179 (with heavy volume)
• Then a dead-cat bounce / short-covering:
  • 19:00 close ~74,939
  • 20:00 close ~76,282
  • 21:00 close ~76,200
  • 21:58 current ~76,138

Micro-structure: bounce exists, but it is retracing a strong impulsive leg down; price is currently below likely supply created during the breakdown.

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2) Support / resistance mapping (price-action + market structure)

2.1 Immediate supports

• $75,700–$75,800: prior daily low area (2026-02-01 low ~75,699) + psychological/structure support.
• $74,800–$75,000: hourly shelf (17:00 close ~74,846) where a bounce initiated.
• $73,000–$73,200: session low (hourly 18:00 low ~73,094; daily low ~73,072). This is the capitulation pivot.

2.2 Immediate resistances (most important for next 24h)

• $76,800–$77,300: overhead congestion after rebound (price struggled to extend beyond mid-76s; also a typical retest zone).
• $78,000–$78,300: pre-breakdown intraday base (10:00–13:00 area around 78k). Common retest magnet.
• $79,000–$79,300: hourly peak region (00:00–01:00 highs ~79.1k) and start of the slide.

Implication: The market is likely to sell rallies into these resistance bands unless a strong continuation bid reappears.

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3) Volatility and range-based expectation (ATR-like reasoning)

3.1 Intraday realized volatility (hourly)

• The drop from ~78.1k → ~73.2k in a few hours indicates very high realized vol.
• The rebound to ~76.3k was also large and fast, typical of post-sweep mean reversion.

3.2 Next-24h range bias

After a large liquidation-style move, markets often:

1. Retest the breakdown zone (supply)
2. Then either continue down (trend continuation) or form a base

Given the higher-timeframe downtrend and failure to reclaim key resistances, the higher-probability path is:

• A rally attempt into 76.8k–78.3k
• Then renewed selling pressure, with risk of revisiting 75.7k, 74.8k and potentially 73.0k.

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4) Candlestick & pattern read

4.1 Daily candle character (most recent day)

• 2026-02-03: large range (high ~79,009; low ~73,072; close ~76,138).
• This resembles a selloff + rebound day (long lower wick potential), but:
  • Close is still well below prior key breakdown areas (~78–80k)
  • So it is not yet a confirmed reversal; it’s consistent with a bear-market volatility bounce.

4.2 Hourly pattern

• The sequence suggests a bear flag / bear pennant risk:
  • Impulse down (16:00–18:00)
  • Then corrective channel up (19:00–21:00) that stalls below former support.

Pattern implication: corrective bounces tend to fail and resolve lower.

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5) Volume / participation clues

• Hourly candles show volume spikes at:
  • 18:00 (largest: ~6.89B)
  • 20:00, 21:00 also elevated
• This is consistent with:
  • Forced selling / liquidations near the lows
  • Short-covering and opportunistic dip-buying on the rebound

In downtrends, these spikes often mark temporary floors, but not necessarily a durable trend reversal—especially if price can’t reclaim the breakdown origin.

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6) Momentum indicators (inference from price behavior)

(Exact RSI/MACD not computed numerically from all closes here; inference is made from the magnitude and sequencing of moves.)

6.1 RSI regime (probabilistic)

• The fast move from ~79k to ~73k in hours strongly implies hourly RSI hit oversold.
• The rebound to ~76k suggests RSI mean-reverted, but in a broader downtrend RSI often:
  • Bounces into the 40–50 region
  • Then rolls over (bearish continuation)

6.2 MACD / trend momentum

• Daily momentum is negative (series of lower highs/lows since mid-Jan).
• The rebound is likely a countertrend MACD histogram contraction, not a full bullish crossover on daily.

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7) Scenario planning for the next 24 hours (forecast)

Base case (highest probability): Bearish continuation after a retest

1. Price attempts to grind higher / retest supply: $76,800 → $78,200
2. Sellers defend; price rotates back down toward $75,700
3. If $75,700 breaks, next magnet becomes $74,800, then $73,000

Bullish alternative (lower probability): Squeeze continuation

• If BTC reclaims and holds above $78,300 and then breaks $79,300, the move could extend toward $80,500–$81,500 (gap/air-pocket region from the breakdown).
• However, given the daily trend and the magnitude of recent distribution, this requires sustained demand that is not evidenced yet.

24h directional call: Slight-to-moderate downward bias (sell-the-rally), with elevated two-way volatility.

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8) Trade decision (Buy vs Sell) and optimal entry logic

Given:

• Dominant daily downtrend
• Breakdown + corrective bounce (bear-flag risk)
• Overhead resistance zones stacked closely above current price

Decision: SELL (Short Position)

Optimal open price (entry)

• Rather than shorting immediately at $76,138 (mid-bounce), the better expectancy is to short into resistance:
• Open (short) near: $77,200
  • This sits inside the first major supply band ($76,800–$77,300) where rallies are likely to fail.

Target / close price (take profit)

• Primary downside objective is a retest of the post-liquidation base:
• Close (take profit): $74,900
  • This targets the $74,800–$75,000 support shelf (higher probability fill before attempting the extreme low ~$73k).

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Risk note (important)

Crypto can gap/whipsaw; if price reclaims and holds above $78,300–$79,300, the bearish setup degrades materially (short-covering risk). Consider position sizing accordingly.