BTC at the 90k Cliff: Descending Triangle Poised to Break — Short the Pop

BTC/USD – Multi-timeframe Technical Deep-Dive and 24h Game Plan

1. Market Structure and Trend Context (Daily)

• Primary trend: Down from mid-October highs (120k+) into mid-Nov capitulation (low ~80.7k on 11/21), followed by a relief rally that stalled beneath 95k in early Dec. Price is now consolidating below the 50D trend proxy, so the higher-timeframe remains net-bearish.
• Secondary trend: Since the 11/21 low, structure improved into a sequence of higher lows (11/21 ~80.7k → 12/1 ~83.9k → 12/5 ~88.2k → 12/7 ~87.8k → 12/12 ~89.5k) and higher highs into 12/9 (~94.6k). However, in the last week momentum waned, producing a short-term series of lower highs (12/11 ~93.6k → 12/12 ~92.7k → 12/13 intraday ~90.6k). This compresses price into a descending triangle with horizontal support clustered around 90k.
• Conclusion: Macro bearish, meso-term range/bounce faded, micro structure tilting bearish into a key support retest.

2. Key Levels (Confluence of S/R, Fibs, Psych)

• Resistance:
  • R1: 90,600–90,650 (today’s intraday cap)
  • R2: ~91,000–91,200 (prior intraday supply/failed retests)
  • R3: 91,500–92,000 (Fib 0.382–0.5 of 12/9 → 12/12 downswing)
  • R4: 92,600–92,700 (Fib 0.618 and recent breakdown area)
  • R5: 93,500–94,600 (BB upper vicinity and the 12/9 swing high)
• Support:
  • S1: 90,000 (round-number magnet, multi-touch shelf)
  • S2: 89,500–89,600 (12/12 low and shelf undercut)
  • S3: 89,000 (psych, stops cluster)
  • S4: 88,100–88,200 (12/5 low)
  • S5: 86,300–86,500 (12/1 close area and 50% retrace of 11/21→12/9)
  • S6: ~85,300 (61.8% retrace of 11/21→12/9), then 83,862 (12/1 intraday low)
• Fib confluence of note:
  • From 11/21 low (80,660) to 12/9 high (94,602): 38.2% ≈ 89,930 (exactly where price is sitting), 50% ≈ 87,631, 61.8% ≈ 85,330. The 0.382 at ~90k is being stress-tested.

3. Moving Averages and Slope Analysis

• 20D SMA/EMA: Estimated ~90,500 (using last 20 closes, average ≈ 90.51k). Price (≈90.16k) is marginally below, signaling neutral-to-slight bearish immediate momentum.
• 50D SMA: Likely well above price (approx >100k given Sep–Oct distribution), reinforcing a bearish higher-timeframe bias.
• Takeaway: Below the 50D, hovering just under the 20D—rallies face supply near 91–93k unless momentum expands.

4. Momentum (RSI/Stoch/Divs) and MACD

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated mid-40s to ~48—neither oversold nor strong; momentum is tepid and rolling over from early-Dec upswing.
• Hourly RSI: Chops around 45–55 with slight bullish intraday divergences at micro-lows, but not decisive; they’ve only produced weak bounces.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero and flattening; histogram slightly negative—points to a sluggish bearish drift barring a catalyst.
• MACD (Hourly): Flattish with frequent bear cross/mini re-crosses consistent with range compression before directional expansion.

5. Volatility and Bands (Bollinger, Keltner, ATR)

• ATR(14D): Roughly 2.0–2.8k (daily); supports a 24h expected swing of ~2k+ in either direction.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Center ~90.5k; estimated upper ~93.5–94k, lower ~87.5–88k. Price is slightly below the mid-band and drifting lower—room to test the lower band on a breakdown.
• Keltner Channel (20EMA ± 2xATR): Very wide (approx 85.5k–95.5k), with price in the lower-middle. No squeeze on daily, but hourly shows tighter compression—prelude to a near-term move.

6. Volume, Distribution/Accumulation, OBV Proxy

• Volume spikes on down days in mid-Nov (capitulation) and again 12/12 (drop from ~92.5k to ~90.3k on heavy volume). 12/13 continues to register meaningful activity even as price stalls—suggests supply absorbs bounces near 91k.
• OBV proxy (qualitative): Flat-to-drifting lower since 12/9 despite attempts higher—distribution edge.

7. Pattern Work: Descending Triangle at 90k

• Multiple lower highs press into a flat shelf at ~90k. Classic measured-move targets on breakdowns often travel to the prior swing support cluster: 89k, then 88.1k. Given ATR, a 1–2k extension is realistic within 24h if 90k gives.
• Failure to break 90k decisively could still trigger a stop-run wick into 89–89.5k followed by a reflex bounce toward 90.8–91.2k—still within a bearish range context.

8. Fibonacci Micro-Swings

• 12/9 high (94.6k) → 12/12 low (89.53k): 0.382 ≈ 91.5k, 0.5 ≈ 92.07k, 0.618 ≈ 92.63k. All retests failed; price never reclaimed that 91.5–92.6k value area. This keeps control with sellers near-term.

9. Ichimoku (Directional Bias Check)

• Daily: Price likely below Kumo; Kijun/Tenkan approximations would sit near 92k (mid-range). That aligns with the failed reclaim zone, adding confluence resistance overhead.
• Lower TF: Price stuck around flat Kijun/Tenkan values near 90–91k, reinforcing range noise until a clean break.

10. Intraday (Hourly) Microstructure and VWAP

• Since the prior day, price oscillated tightly between ~89.99k–90.64k with most prints around 90.1–90.4k—a classic VWAP magnet day. Dips below 90k are quickly probed but not impulsively bought; bounces fade below 90.7k.
• Liquidity: It’s a weekend (Sat), so liquidity is thinner; stop cascades can accentuate moves, especially below well-watched 90k.

11. Mean-Reversion and Statistical Read

• Distance to 20D mean is small (~-0.35k), implying no significant stretch; hence breakouts are more likely driven by structure and stop placement rather than reversion pressures.
• Hourly bandwidth compression suggests expansion is near. Given the triangle and lower highs, downside expansion has a modest edge.

12. Scenario Analysis – Next 24 Hours

• Base case (60%): Breakdown/stop-run through 90k → print 89.6–89.0k, potentially a wick to ~88.8–88.9k, then stabilize back toward 90.2–90.6k. Rationale: descending triangle, failed fib reclaims, heavy 12/12 distribution.
• Range case (30%): Ping-pong 89.8–90.9k, with mean reversion around 90.3k; no decisive resolution through weekend liquidity.
• Bull surprise (10%): Squeeze above 90.9–91.2k, quick test to 91.5–92.0k; likely stalls in the 91.5–92.6k supply block unless fueled by news.

13. Trade Thesis and Tactics

• Edge: Short the pop into 90.9–91.2k where recent supply has defended, targeting the 89k handle as stops below 90k get harvested.
• Why short not long: Micro flow is distributing under lower highs; 90k has been tapped repeatedly—support weakens with each test. Risk/reward favors selling into 90.9–91.0k with 2k downside potential vs ~600–1,000 upside to invalidation.
• Risk management (suggested, not part of order fields): Invalidation on strong hourly close above ~91.5k (fib 0.382 reclaim) or daily close above ~92.1k (fib 0.5). A tactical stop could sit ~91.6–91.8k depending on risk tolerance.

14. Summary

• Structure: Descending triangle into 90k with repeated lower highs.
• Momentum/vol: Neutral-to-bearish, compression likely to resolve lower.
• Levels: 90k is the hinge; under 90k opens 89.5 → 89.0 → 88.1k path.
• Plan: Sell rallies into 90.9–91.0k, target ~88.95k within 24h, acknowledging weekend volatility.