Bitcoin's Powerful Breakout: Why BTC Will Attack $112,000 Next — Momentum, Patterns, and Smart Entry Levels Revealed

Step 1: Trend Analysis

Long-Term Trend (Daily Chart)

• Overall Direction: Over the past three months, Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a robust uptrend. From April 5, 2025 to July 3, 2025, BTC rallied from around $83,000 to $110,000, a move of about 32%.
• Medium-Term Behavior: Throughout May and June, price movement consolidated between approximately $100,000 and $110,000. Notable breakouts above $110,000 in late May faded quickly, returning to the $107,000–$109,000 region—suggesting a distribution phase with local resistance.
• Recent Trend: Since June 22, 2025, there was a sharp rebound from a local low near $98,000, and since then BTC has charted a series of higher lows and marginally higher highs, culminating in today's price spike back above $110,000 and a close at $109,931.

Step 2: Chart Patterns & Price Action

• Ascending Channel (Since June 22): Higher highs and higher lows indicate the structure of an ascending channel, signaling bullish intent.
• Range Breakout: The last two days saw a decisive move above the $108,800 region (prior resistance from the second half of June, now acting as support).
• No Immediate Reversal Signs: There are no hints of a topping pattern (e.g., head-and-shoulders, double top) in short-term hourly/daily data. Recent wicks over $110,000 show supply, but pullbacks remain shallow.

Step 3: Technical Indicator Analysis

A. Moving Averages

• 50-Day & 100-Day SMA: Both are sloping upward, supporting the uptrend. The daily close is well above these averages, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.
• 20-Period EMA (on Hourly Chart): Price has been consistently above this average for much of July 3rd, signaling near-term strength. Minor dips to the EMA have been aggressively bought.

B. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Hourly RSI: Readings fluctuated between 60 and 70 over the past 12 hours, peaking closer to 70 at local highs, but not signaling deeply overbought levels.
• Daily RSI: Likely near, but not above, 70—a zone that would trigger caution but not immediate reversal.

C. MACD

• Hourly MACD: Momentum is bullish; MACD line hovers above signal, though some histogram flattening may indicate short-term consolidation ahead.
• Daily MACD: Remains in positive territory and trending up, supporting continued price gains.

D. Volume Profile

• Rising Volume into Breakout: Volume surged on the latest breakout over $109,000, confirming buyers' conviction.
• Slightly Lower Volume on Retest: Retests of the $108,800 region saw subdued selling, a bullish sign.

Step 4: Market Structure, Support and Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: $110,500–$112,000 is the daily/weekly resistance zone (recognized by historical wicks and failed breakout attempts in late May).
• Support Zones: $108,800 (recent support, previously resistance); $107,150 (late June support), then $105,700 (psychological, prior breakout).
• Stop-Loss Zoning: Below $108,800, the bullish thesis weakens short-term—critical stop for new longs.

Step 5: Volatility & Momentum

• ATR (Average True Range): 24hr ATR is about $2,500–$3,000, consistent with multi-thousand dollar daily swings. Recent move from $108,850 to $110,500 in less than 8 hours confirms continued high volatility.
• Momentum: Momentum indicators are not exhausted; uptrend remains healthy. No divergence present on shorter timeframes.

Step 6: Candlestick & Intraday Data

• Hourly Data: Shows a sequence of higher closes and minimal shadow on downside, confirming strong buying interest throughout July 3rd. No reversal candle in the last 12 hours.
• Recent Tight Ranges: Consolidation near highs typically precedes further impulsive movement.

Step 7: Order Flow, Sentiment & Risk Management

• Order Book Analysis (Implied): Price rally above previous resistance suggests shorts are being squeezed and new longs are entering.
• Sentiment: Positive, but not euphoric; price action remains orderly.
• Risk Management: Aggressive entries are rewarded with momentum, but a tight stop is essential, given wild swings and the risk of a rapid pullback if $108,800 is lost.

Step 8: Composite Outlook & Investment Techniques

• Trend Following: Strong uptrend across daily and hourly charts—as advocated by trend-following systems.
• Momentum Trading: Momentum remains in bulls’ control, with increasing volume on breakouts.
• Breakout Strategy: Recent break and hold above $108,800 justifies buying into strength—classic momentum breakout.
• Mean Reversion: There is mild short-term overextension, but no clear mean-reversion signal; with $110,500–$112,000 the next upside magnet, risk of immediate fade is low.
• Risk/Reward Assessment: Ideal buy is around $109,800–$110,000 (current zone or slight retrace), targeting next resistance $112,000.

Conclusion & 24-Hour Forecast

• Bullish Outlook: All major indicators and patterns point to continued upside. Breakout is supported by volume, momentum, structure, and lack of bullish exhaustion.
• Forecast: Expect a test of $112,000 resistance within 24 hours. Given sustained momentum, the next upside goal is $112,000, with minor resistance at $111,000. Downside risk to $108,800 (support) offers excellent stop-loss point.
• Actionable Plan: Buy on small retracement to $109,850–$110,000. Target $112,000 in the next 24 hours. Stop if price closes below $108,800.

Decision: Buy (Long Position) Open Price: $109,950 (current zone or very slight dip) Close Price (Target): $112,000

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