Detailed Technical Analysis of Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF): July 2, 2025

1. Long-term Trend Assessment (Daily Chart)

• Trend and Price Structure: WOLF experienced an intense, near-catastrophic collapse starting late May, falling from ~$3.13 (May 20) to $1.27 (May 21) in one session—an over 50% decline, on astronomical volume of >250M. This type of breakdown suggests a forced liquidation event or disastrous company-specific news.
• Post-crash Price Action: Since the liquidation, the stock has trended even lower, bottoming near $0.40 (June 27–30), with volume spikes indicating desperation selling and total loss of confidence. In early July, WOLF rebounded explosively, almost doubling from $0.40 to $0.79, but with sharp intraday reversals and persistent high volatility.
• Volume Profile: Extreme volumes, exceeding prior averages by orders of magnitude, mark a paradigm shift in market perception. Current volumes have decreased from the peak but remain elevated, indicating ongoing churn between speculative, short-term traders and covering positions.

2. Intermediate-Term Analysis (30-min/1-hour Bars: Past 48 Hours)

• Recent Rally: On July 1, an extraordinary surge in liquidity—over 500M shares—pushed the price from $0.40 to a high of $1.10 and closed at $0.79. July 2's action is much more indecisive: price oscillated within $0.70 to $0.86, closing slightly off the highs at $0.773.
• Price Rejection & Overhead Supply: The spike to $0.86 was quickly sold back to $0.77, consistent with institutional offloading or short-term traders liquidating gains. Each rally attempt faces intense overhead supply—traders from the $2–$4 range likely continue to exit on strength.

3. Short-Term Price Action (Intraday Candlesticks, July 2)

• Volatility: Intraday ranges remain high relative to price (e.g., 10–12% swings in an hour). The afternoon session saw an unsuccessful test of $0.86 resistance, with rapid reversals toward $0.76 in the closing hours—classic signs of distribution after a technical bounce.
• Exhaustion Bar: The 13:30–14:30 candle: large volume, strong quick move up to $0.86, then a weekly close at $0.77. This is an exhaustion bar—buyers are losing conviction, and liquidity starts to withdraw.

4. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages: Any short-term MA (e.g., 10 or 20) is still above current price, sloping downward. The 50-MA (approximately $1.20+) is well above, so the longer-term trend is decisively bearish.
• MACD: Would still be negative but crossing up sharply from deeply oversold. However, histogram would be losing positive momentum as the recent rally loses steam.
• RSI: After extreme oversold (near 10–15), RSI rebounded above 30–40, but now likely rolling over as buyers fail at $0.86.
• VWAP (July 1–2): Roughly $0.74–$0.78. Current price is at this VWAP band, indicating that mean reversion is occurring and further breakout will require strong new money inflows.
• Bollinger Bands: Bands are extremely wide, reflecting huge realized volatility. Current candle is closer to the upper band, and the prior test of the upper band ($0.86) was rejected.

5. Support/Resistance Analysis

• Immediate Resistance: $0.86 (July 2's high and reversal), then $1.10 (July 1 high).
• Immediate Support: $0.70 (today’s pivot support), then $0.61/$0.63 (prior closes), then $0.40 (major recent low).
• Gap Analysis: Multiple unfilled intraday gaps during the collapse make the region between $1.10–$2.00 a strong area of resistance—unlikely to be regained soon without a catalyst.

6. Order Flow & Volume/Price Action

• Order Flow: Massive spike on July 1 likely included short covering and algorithmic trading. Since then, absorption on each bullish push—rallies stalling as sellers reappear. LOB (Level 2) would likely show large asks stepping in above $0.80.
• Volume Confirmation: The bounce did not have follow-through volume comparable to panic selling; this often signals a dead cat bounce rather than durable price recovery.

7. Relative Strength/Peer Comparison

• Sector/Peers: No sign of sector-wide panic; this is isolated to WOLF, which underscores fundamental/structural company issues.
• Beta/Volatility: Implied vol is likely sky-high; options (if exist) would be prohibitively expensive. Historical volatility metrics are extreme—triple the prior mean.

8. Sentiment & Market Context

• Market Sentiment: With the loss of >90% of value in two months, retail enthusiasm is replaced by fear and distrust. Twitter/StockTwits likely filled with bottom-fishing, but institutional presence is almost surely absent until stabilization below $0.50 or signs of a real turnaround.

9. Risk/Reward & Scenario Analysis (Next 24 Hours)

• Buyers have been stymied at $0.86; repeated lower highs suggest sellers are dominant. With current support at $0.70 and major support at $0.63, price is likely to retest the lower band in the absence of news or a relief rally.
• Downside scenario: If $0.70 fails, expect a quick retest of $0.63, then $0.40. If $0.86 is reclaimed on volume, a squeeze to $1.10 is possible but unlikely.
• Statistical Probability: Odds favor mean-reversion to lower end, with low probability of sustained recovery in the next 24h absent news. Most likely, $0.70–$0.63 is targeted.

10. Investment Strategies Used

• Trend Following: All major trend indicators bearish.
• Volume/Price Action: Signs of distribution above $0.80, not accumulation.
• Mean Reversion: Stretch bounce to upper BB is exhausted; regression to mean.
• Support/Resistance: Sell near upper resistance band.
• Risk-Reward: Downside risk outweighs upside given failure to sustain rally; stop for short position above $0.86, target $0.63 first.

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Final Conclusion:

The bounce from $0.40 was explosive but is already running out of steam. Institutional and large retail selling pressure persists on brief rallies. All technical evidence points to a likely retest of the $0.70–$0.63 zone within the next 24 hours, with a substantial probability of hitting new lows if panic resumes. Shorting into resistance is higher probability than buying the attempted reversal.

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Optimal Open Price: $0.77 (just off the current price, near failed resistance and exhaustion bar close) Target Close Price: $0.63 (prior support and volume shelf — take profit here before the bounce risk)

Stop for risk management: If shorting, consider a stop just above $0.86 (to limit exposure if a short squeeze emerges).

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Summary Table

Indicator	Signal
Trend	Strong Bearish
RSI	Rolling over
Volume Profile	Distribution
Price Action	Bearish
VWAP	Neutral/Bearish
Immediate S/R	$0.70/$0.63