Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

1. Overview and Recent Price Action

• Current Price: $340.47 (2025-06-24 close)
• Intraday Range (2025-06-24): Low $340.44, High $344.86
• Last 5 Sessions: Significant volatility - rapid surge to $357+, abrupt drop back to $340s, large wicks indicate indecision and stop-running events.

2. Trend Analysis

• Daily Chart: Since mid-June, strong rally from the $320s, peaking around $357.54 (06-23). However, the failure to hold above $350 and a sharp retreat back to $340s signals more distribution than absorption.
• Intermediate Trend: Bullish since early June; but, breakdown from $355+ area and inability to hold $347+ suggests a potential end of this bullish leg.
• Short-Term Trend: Sideways to slightly bearish, very choppy price structure in the last 48 hours.

3. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Major Support:
  • $340-$342 area (multiple sessions closed/supported here).
  • $330 (major support: mid-June base; sharp bounce seen here).
  • $320 (last defense from early June lows and high-volume bounces).
• Major Resistance:
  • $348-$350 (failed breakdowns, multiple rejections intraday).
  • $357-$360 (multi-day high, big reversal).
  • $344-$345 (very recent minor highs, intraday resistance).

4. Volume Analysis

• June 23 High Volume: Huge surge to $357 with very high volume (almost 191 million), followed by even heavier sell-side prints.
• June 24: Volume tapers, indicating exhaustive moves; buyers unable to fend off sellers above $344.

5. Candlestick/Price Pattern Analysis

• June 23: Large upper wick, reversal after new highs; classic blow-off exhaustion.
• June 24: Multiple small-bodied, lower-high candles in the hourly—classic distribution.
• Prior Days: Strong green bars, now arrest with repeated upper wicks (bearish shadows).

6. Moving Average Analysis

(Lagging but useful for confirmation—estimates based on recent closes)

• 20-day (approx): $335
• 50-day (approx): $295
• Price is extended ~1.6-2.0 std devs above the 20- and 50-day MAs.
• Pullbacks to the 20-DMA ($335-336) are likely, and breakdowns tend toward mean reversion.

7. Oscillator & Momentum Analysis

• RSI (Estimated): Post overbought (crossed above 70 on rally); now likely sub-60, trending down.
• MACD: Crossed bullish early June, now flattening; histogram contracts, indicating loss of momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Entered overbought at the highs; begun turning downward—bearish short-term confirmation.

8. Chart Pattern & Market Structure

• Parabolic Advance, Followed by Exhaustion: Rally resembles a blow-off top—quick ramp, steep sell-down, hockey-stick curve.
• Bulls Unable to Hold Gains: Each attempt to push highs is met with swift reversals.
• High volatility and range expansion make this susceptible to further stop-runs and wide whipsaws.

9. Positioning, Sentiment, and Probability Assessment

• Sentiment: Consensus shifted from strong bullish momentum to nervous profit-taking—late bulls are trapped above $350, adding potential supply as rebounds are sold.
• Distribution Phase: Price and volume action strongly suggest institutional distribution (particularly after the spike).
• Short-Term Probability:
  • 40% further rapid breakdown (toward $335 or even $330)
  • 45% choppy, sideways action ($340-$347)
  • 15% miraculous recovery to $350+ (requires fresh bullish catalyst)

10. Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Estimated): Expanded to ~$10/day; sharp price swings expected to persist, favoring short-term, disciplined trading.

11. Advanced Techniques: Fib Retracement, VWAP, Order Flow

• Fib Retracement (Mid-June Low $317 to $357 High):
  • 38.2% retracement: $342
  • 50% retracement: $337
  • Current price is hovering around 38.2%—failure here typically leads to 50% retracement.
• VWAP (Recent): Likely around $346-$349; price persistently below VWAP since reversal = bearish bias.
• Order Flow (Intraday): Repeated lower highs, quick rejections at minor resistance—bears exert control.

12. Risk Considerations

• Stop-Loss Placement: For shorts, above $347-$348 (key breakdown zone). For longs, beneath $340 likely triggers further selling.
• Catalysts: No sign of immediate earnings, but recent volatility suggests headline-driven activity is possible—adjust stop sizes accordingly.

Synthesis: Trade Plan & 24-Hour Outlook

• Edge: All major indicators signal a reversal or substantial pullback is underway. Bulls have failed to defend $345-$347; distribution pattern is dominant.
• Price Objective: Closest support of significance is $335, followed by $330. These represent high-probability magnet zones on further weakness.
• Risk-Reward: Short entry near $341-$342, stop $347 (abv breakdown zone), target $335.
• Volatility may give intraday spikes, but overall bias is for short-term downward movement.

Conclusion: SELL/SHORT BIAS

• Expected Movement: Next 24 hours likely to see more downside, testing $335~$337. If $335 fails, cascade can reach $330.
• Optimal Short Entry: Enter around $341, stop $347, exit $335 (with potential to $330 for aggressive traders).

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Summary Table:

Indicator	Signal
Trend	Shifting Bearish
Momentum	Fading
Volume	Distribution Phase
Oscillators	Rolling Over
Pattern	Blow-off, Distribution
Risk/Reward	Favor Short Trade

Final Trading Decision:

• Position: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: 341.00
• Close/Take Profit: 335.00 (with possible extension to 330.00 if momentum increases)
• Stop-loss: 347.00 (risk <1.8%)

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