TLRY: Post-Flush Balance Sets the Stage for a VWAP Dip-Buy Toward 1.20–1.22

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect consolidation-to-upside continuation with an anticipated intraday range roughly 1.08–1.22; base case drift toward 1.18–1.20 with upside extension risk to 1.22–1.26 if momentum re-accelerates.
• Strategy: Buy-the-dip toward intraday VWAP/support cluster 1.12–1.13 with tight risk. Take-profit into first resistance band 1.20–1.22. If strength persists, trail for a stretch to 1.24–1.26.

Step-by-step technical audit

1. Data quality, timeframe, and context

• Data spans late Apr to Aug 18, 2025, with daily OHLCV and today’s intraday prints. Current price ≈ 1.14 at 20:59 UTC. Liquidity surged Aug 11–14 (up to ~290M shares) and remains elevated (~56.8M today), implying strong participation and momentum regime.
• Regime shift: TLRY transitioned from a multi-month sub-0.70 range to a high-momentum breakout regime (0.65 → 1.25) starting Aug 11, followed by a healthy pullback and now a bounce.

2. Trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Up. Series of higher highs/higher lows since early July. Key impulse leg: 0.65 (Aug 8) → 1.25 (Aug 13). Pullback low 1.03 (Aug 15) held the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of that leg (calc below), typical of trend continuation.
• Intraday (today): Gap up/open drive to 1.19 then balanced 1.12–1.15. Price oscillated around VWAP ~1.13–1.14 and closed near it, often a sign of absorption after a volatility shock and positioning for the next directional attempt.

3. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.76, far below current ~1.14, confirming strong upside momentum and distance from mean. Distance z-score near upper band (see Bollinger section) but not extreme given recent volatility.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~0.55–0.60 (weighted by long sub-0.70 base). Price is well above, reinforcing a bullish regime.
• Fast MA stack (conceptual): Short MAs > medium > long, with price > all MAs. Pullback respected dynamic support region (10–20DMA band) on a proportional basis.
• Read-through: Trend-following signals remain long-biased; the wide separation warns of volatility but not reversal.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~65–68 after today’s bounce (was >70 on Aug 13, cooled on Aug 14–15 pullback, now recharging). This sits just below classic overbought (70), which is consistent with bullish continuation potential without immediate exhaustion.
• Stochastics: Would be in upper-middle band after pullback and bounce; rising stoch supports upside attempts within a still-strong trend.
• Rate-of-Change (ROC): Positive on multi-day horizon; decelerated during the pullback and is curling up again—typical of a constructive reset.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD line above zero, histogram contracted during the pullback (Aug 14–15), and today’s green session likely narrowed the negative histogram bars or re-expanded positive bars. Classic “high-level reset” look; re-cross potential favors another push toward 1.18–1.22.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) approximate: Middle ~0.76; given recent dispersion, SD ≈ 0.19–0.21 → Upper ~1.14–1.18; Lower ~0.56–0.58.
• Price closed near the upper band but not breaching with expansion; that’s consistent with consolidation under resistance, not blow-off. Bandwidth remains wide; volatility is high but normalizing.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): With 14-day ATR estimated ~0.12–0.15 (spiked during breakout days), today’s close near upper Keltner suggests momentum presence; a small consolidation often precedes next leg.

7. Volume analytics

• Post-breakout volume declined from the Aug 11–14 frenzy but remains high versus pre-breakout baseline. High participation sustains breakouts.
• Intraday volume skew: Heaviest in first hour on the 1.19 spike, then balanced. Closing near VWAP with steady volumes suggests two-sided trade and absorption near 1.13–1.14, not distribution. OBV conceptually trending higher since early July; Accum/Dist improved on up days and did not markedly deteriorate on the pullback.

8. VWAPs and anchored references

• Today’s intraday VWAP clusters ~1.13–1.14; price settled there. Expect initial tug-of-war around VWAP on next open; dips to 1.12–1.13 are buyable if held.
• Anchored VWAP from Aug 11 breakout day likely tracks ~1.05–1.10 area (est.), with today’s low staying above—bullish hierarchy (price > aVWAP(breakout)).

9. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 1.12–1.13 (VWAP/closing cluster), 1.10–1.11 (intraday lows), 1.03 (Aug 15 swing low; also 38.2% retracement). Psychological: 1.00.
• Immediate resistances: 1.18–1.20 (today’s high and prior supply), 1.22–1.26 (extension band and Aug 13 close/round-number friction), 1.25–1.26 (swing high and liquidity pocket). Above that: 1.30–1.37 (Aug 14 intraday spike zone).

10. Fibonacci analysis (from 0.65 low to 1.25 high; range 0.60)

• 38.2%: 1.25 − 0.382×0.60 ≈ 1.0218 → The Aug 15 low ~1.03 aligned perfectly—textbook pullback.
• 23.6%: 1.25 − 0.236×0.60 ≈ 1.1084 → Price reclaimed and held above today; now acts as pivot/support.
• Potential upside retrace/extension targets: 1.18 (near upper BB and local supply), 1.22 (minor extension/round cluster), 1.25–1.26 (prior high/liquidity magnet). If momentum exceeds, 1.27–1.30 is a feasible overshoot band, but that likely requires another volume expansion.

11. Ichimoku framework (daily, conceptual)

• Price well above the cloud; Tenkan (9) likely ~1.11–1.14 region; Kijun (26) much lower (~0.75–0.85). Bullish stack with a large Tenkan–Kijun spread. Span A > Span B and price > cloud—strong trend context. A Tenkan bounce is consistent with today’s action.

12. Elliott wave lens (heuristic)

• Impulse count from the July base suggests Wave 3 peak near 1.25, Wave 4 pullback to 1.03 (38.2% fib—typical), now entering a prospective Wave 5 that often attempts a marginal new high or a double-top zone (1.22–1.30). Failure to break 1.20–1.22 on rising momentum would be an early caution that Wave 5 is truncated; base case favors at least a test of 1.18–1.22.

13. Candlestick/price action tells

• Aug 13: Wide-range bullish close near highs (marubozu-like). Aug 14: Long upper wick (profit-taking) and close off the highs—first caution. Aug 15: Big red with range expansion to 1.03—capitulative flush into fib support. Today: Green session closing near VWAP—balance day after a flush, often preceding a directional attempt next session. Intraday prints formed a mild bull flag between 1.12 and 1.15.

14. Gap and mean reversion context

• Gap zone from the explosive move remains partially unfilled; the 0.92–1.00 pocket is a deeper fill and currently unlikely in the next 24h unless a new shock appears. The market accepted higher value above 1.10 today, which supports holding gains.

15. Risk metrics and scenarios (24h)

• Estimated 1-day ATR: ~0.12–0.15; thus a typical swing from 1.14 could span 1.02–1.29 in extremes; base-case narrower range 1.08–1.22 given cooling volatility.
• Bull case (40%): Early dip to 1.12–1.13 gets bought, break/hold over 1.18 leads to 1.20–1.22 test; momentum spike prints 1.24–1.26 wick.
• Base case (45%): Balance 1.11–1.17 in the morning, grind higher to tag 1.18–1.20 by close.
• Bear case (15%): Failure at 1.16–1.18, loss of 1.12 leads to 1.08–1.10 test; only a break of 1.08 opens 1.03.

16. Confluence summary

• Bullish: Higher timeframe uptrend, pullback respected 38.2% fib, RSI reset and rising, price reclaimed 23.6% fib, price above 20/50DMA, VWAP support at 1.12–1.13, constructive balance day.
• Cautionary: Price near upper Bollinger, known supply 1.18–1.20, momentum not yet re-accelerated; still in digestion. Thus, buy-the-dip is preferred vs chasing strength into resistance.

17. Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry preference: Staggered bids around 1.12–1.13 (VWAP/nearby support). Avoid chasing >1.18 on first attempt; wait for a pullback or confirmed breakout with strong volume.
• Profit-taking: Primary TP 1.22 (first resistance band). Stretch TP if momentum expands: 1.24–1.26.
• Risk management (not part of output fields): Protective stop 1.08 (below today’s intraday support and just under 23.6% fib pivot). That defines an R:R around 1:2.3 from 1.12→1.22 vs 1.08.

18. Prediction for next 24 hours

• Expect a constructive consolidation with upward skew. Probable path: early dip 1.12–1.13, then attempt on 1.18; if 1.18 breaks on volume, 1.20–1.22 prints are likely. Failure at 1.18 followed by loss of 1.12 would shift the tape to 1.08–1.10 retest, where buyers likely re-engage absent new catalysts.

Decision rationale

• Multiple tools align for a buy-the-dip approach: trend intact, pullback held a textbook fib, momentum re-curling, VWAP support identified, and resistance overhead close enough to define tight, favorable risk.

Final call

• Decision: Buy (Long). Open near 1.12 on a controlled dip; target 1.22 within 24h under base/bull scenarios. If price gaps above 1.18 at open and holds, consider breakout add-ons but manage risk tightly given proximity to prior supply.