TLRY’s Breakaway Gap: Buy the Dip Near 11.6 for a Push Toward 13.5

Asset: Tilray Brands (TLRY) | Currency: USD | Current price: 12.15 (2025-12-13 22:00 UTC)

Executive overview

• TLRY printed a major breakaway gap on 2025-12-12, closing at 12.15 (+~44% vs prior close 8.43) on explosive volume (79.7M, an order of magnitude above recent average). The day formed a wide-range bullish candle with a long lower shadow (low 10.28) that back-tested the gap and was decisively bought. After-hours briefly extended to 13.7 before settling lower. This is textbook momentum behavior following a catalyst day.
• The technical structure now shows short-term uptrend resuming off the 7.06 swing low (2025-12-03), with price reclaiming and stretching above fast MAs and the 20-day. Over the next 24 hours of tradable activity (i.e., into the next cash session), the base case is a dip-to-pivot then continuation toward 12.9–13.6, with 11.6–11.8 as first magnet/support.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Long/medium term: From late Sep to early Oct TLRY spiked to an intraday high near 23.2 (2025-10-09) and has since trended lower into early Dec (7.06 low), then based and turned up. The 50–200 day trend backdrop remains mixed-to-down, but momentum has inflected sharply positive.
• Short term (daily): Higher low series from 7.06 → 7.20 → 7.35 → 8.43, then a breakaway gap to 11.64 open and 12.15 close. This resets the short-term trend to bullish with fresh demand.

Price action and candlesticks

• Breakaway gap: Prior close 8.43 → gap open 11.64. Intraday low 10.28 retraced part of the gap, then strong close near the upper third of the range—bullish follow-through signal.
• Bullish wide-range candle with long lower wick: The defense of the 10.2–10.4 zone indicates aggressive dip buying and suggests institutions accumulated into weakness.
• After-hours extension to 13.7 indicates pent-up demand; pullback thereafter typical of profit-taking into the weekend.

Support and resistance mapping

• Recent swing levels: Low 7.06 (2025-12-03), new swing high 12.35 (2025-12-12 regular hours), AH spike 13.7.
• Classic S/R from October/November supply: 12.9–13.0 (prior congestion), 13.4–13.6 (heavy October trade), 14.0–14.5 (supply band).
• Gap structure: Unfilled gap from 8.43 → 11.64. First gap support 11.10–11.30 (23.6% retrace/upper gap shelf), deeper support 10.30–10.35 (38.2% retrace and Friday’s low).

Fibonacci analysis (swing 7.06 → 12.35; range 5.29)

• 23.6%: 12.35 − 1.25 ≈ 11.10 (first support)
• 38.2%: 12.35 − 2.02 ≈ 10.33 (confluent with Friday’s low)
• 50%: 9.71 (secondary support)
• 61.8%: 9.08 (deeper, unlikely near-term unless momentum fails) Interpretation: Friday’s test of ~10.3 validates the 38.2% level; a typical next-session behavior is to find support near the 23.6% (≈11.1) or the session pivot (~11.6) before attempting higher.

Moving averages and trend metrics

• SMA20 ≈ 8.91 (price >> SMA20): strong near-term momentum extension.
• Fast EMAs (8/13/21) are turning up sharply; price is extended above them, implying pullback risk to the 11.2–11.8 zone where fast MAs will begin to catch up.
• SMA50 likely above current price (owing to Sep–Oct highs), acting as overhead dynamic resistance in the mid-teens; SMA200 well above, not in play short-term.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14): Likely in overbought territory (>70) after a 40%+ session. In strong trends, overbought can persist; expect shallow dips rather than deep mean reversion initially.
• MACD: Bullish cross with positive and expanding histogram; momentum regime shift confirmed.
• Stochastics: Overbought, consistent with a momentum burst; resets via time/sideways or shallow pullback.
• ADX: Rising and >25 (trend-strengthening signature) as volatility expands.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14): Expanding sharply (range 2.07 on the breakout day vs ~0.3–0.6 in the prior base). Expect wide intraday ranges next session.
• Bollinger Bands: Price closed outside/near the upper band; band width expanding—trend acceleration. Near-term, this often leads to a pause/pullback toward the upper band/5–10 day means (≈11.4–11.9) before continuation.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside upper channel, confirming a squeeze/expansion state.

Volume and accumulation

• Volume 79.7M vs typical single-digit millions: this is a high-conviction accumulation day. Close in the top portion and AH extension both reinforce institutional interest.
• OBV and Accumulation/Distribution would show an impulsive upsurge, consistent with accumulation.

VWAP and intraday reference levels

• Session pivot/PVWAP proxy from 12/12: P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = (12.35+10.28+12.15)/3 ≈ 11.59.
• Traditional pivots for next session (derived from 12/12 H/L/C):
  • S3 ≈ 8.77, S2 ≈ 9.52, S1 ≈ 10.84, Pivot P ≈ 11.59, R1 ≈ 12.91, R2 ≈ 13.66, R3 ≈ 14.98. Interpretation: The 11.6 pivot aligns with the likely anchored VWAP zone from the breakout day—prime dip-buy area. R1 (12.9) and R2 (13.66) are natural upside magnets if momentum resumes.

Gap-and-go playbook and statistics (qualitative)

• Breakaway gaps on highest volume in months often produce: (a) early-session dip toward the pivot/VWAP, then (b) rebound and partial range expansion toward R1/R2. Failed patterns typically lose the pivot and trade into the 38.2% retracement (≈10.33). Friday already tested that level and found strong bids, improving the odds of buy-the-dip behavior.

Ichimoku and Elliott structure (contextual)

• Ichimoku: Price is above Tenkan and Kijun; a sharp Tenkan > Kijun cross is probable; price is likely approaching/clearing the cloud top—bullish.
• Elliott view: Off the 7.06 low, wave 1 up to ~8.26, wave 2 pullback to ~7.20, impulsive wave 3 print to ~12.35; a wave 4 consolidation toward 11.1–11.8 followed by a wave 5 push into 13.3–13.7 fits structure.

Risk framework and scenarios (next 24 hours of tradable activity)

• Base case (bullish continuation): Early dip to 11.6–11.9 (pivot/anchored VWAP), then grind/impulse to 12.9 (R1) with extension to 13.4–13.6 (beneath R2). Consolidation likely near 12.9–13.1 if reached.
• Pullback case: Deeper test to 11.1 (23.6% Fib). If buyers defend, bounce resumes; loss of 11.1 opens a run to 10.3 (38.2% Fib/Friday low).
• Bearish failure (lower probability): Persistent trade below 10.3 turns the gap into an exhaustion event and targets 9.7 (50% Fib) — this would invalidate the short-term long thesis.

Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Strong momentum + breakaway gap + volume confirmation + pivot confluence suggests buy-the-dip is favored over chasing. Overbought oscillators warn against entering far above pivot; waiting for pullback to ~11.6 improves risk/reward.
• Key levels to act on: Buy zone 11.1–11.8 (prefer ~11.6 pivot). Upside targets 12.9 (R1) then 13.4–13.6 (prior AH high band/R2 vicinity). Invalidation if sustained below ~10.3.

Prediction (next 24 hours): Expect a dip toward 11.6 ± 0.2 early, then recovery toward 12.9 with potential stretch to 13.4–13.6 if momentum persists.

Risk management note (for execution discipline): If filled near 11.6, a logical protective stop sits just under 10.3 (Friday low/38.2% Fib), aiming for at least 1:2 risk/reward to 13.4–13.6. If price instead gaps above 12.9 at open, consider waiting for a VWAP pullback rather than chasing.

Conclusion: Bullish bias with buy-the-dip strategy. Optimal entry around the 11.6 pivot, targeting 13.5 into the next session, acknowledging high volatility and fast tape conditions.