OPEN: Flush, Hold, and Coil — Setting Up a VWAP-to-R1 Rebound into 4.85

Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice. Ticker: OPEN. Horizon: next 24 hours (includes extended hours/weekend pricing; next cash session confirmation is key).

Executive snapshot

• Bias: Moderately bullish for a continuation attempt toward 4.65–4.90 after Friday’s flush-and-recovery.
• Preferred tactic: Buy the dip into 4.35–4.42 where intraday demand and VWAP cluster, target a push into first resistance band 4.78–4.85.
• Why: Friday formed a long lower-wick recovery day off a key support shelf (4.20–4.30) with improving intraday structure, price above fast MAs and above Ichimoku baselines, and sitting at a Fibonacci pivot (61.8% retracement). Momentum is rebuilding but not overextended.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Regime: High-volatility, post-squeeze consolidation with constructive higher-low formation above 4.00.
• Daily context (recent closes): 5.01 → 4.54 → 4.70 → 4.02 → 4.27 → 4.45. After a sharp drop to 4.02 on 8/27, buyers defended the 4-handle. Thursday printed a small-range stabilizer; Friday opened strong (to 4.93), was sold hard to 4.21, then recovered to 4.45, leaving a long lower shadow—classic “flush then absorption.”
• Intraday (8/29): Open 4.515 → spike 4.93 (profit-taking) → selloff to 4.21 → sequence of higher lows into the close, finishing near 4.45 and hugging intraday VWAP. Structure improved in the afternoon with a rounded retest and reclaim of the 4.40s.

2. Volume, liquidity, and participation

• Volume remained heavy (315M shares 8/29), far above pre-squeeze baselines, indicating robust two-sided interest.
• Volume profile (recent days) shows a high-volume node around 4.30–4.40 (demand), and a lighter pocket 4.60–4.75 (LVN). Expect swift travel if 4.60 reclaims with momentum. Overhead supply thickens 4.90–5.10 (prior balance/closing reference at 5.01, highs ~4.97–5.28).
• OBV (qualitative) has stabilized since 8/27 and is curling higher, consistent with accumulation on dips.

3. Trend and moving averages

• Short-term trend: Up from the 4.02 pivot; intraday higher lows established.
• 5-day SMA ≈ 4.51; price 4.45 is just under this fast mean—room to revert higher.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 4.12; price above—bullish short-term bias.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 3.27 (post-squeeze elevated); price well above—primary short-term uptrend intact.
• EMA stack (est.): EMA9/12 above EMA26 after the July squeeze; slope flattened during the pullback and is re-curling upward.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~55–58; reset from overbought, now mid-bullish without being stretched—good for continuation attempts.
• MACD daily: Positive but compressed histogram earlier this week; histogram showing early re-expansion to the upside on Friday’s recovery—supports a near-term push.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Mid-zone and pointing up—room before overbought.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.85–0.95. Implies typical swing of ~19–21% of price—expect 0.40–0.95 of movement over a day, making 4.65–4.85 reachable if momentum persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 3.27; upper band ~4.9–5.0 (given recent stdev expansion). Price sits below the upper band, leaving upside headroom toward 4.85–5.00.

6. Fibonacci, pivots, and key levels

• Fib retrace of the 5.28 → 4.02 downswing: 38.2% = 4.50–4.52 (tested intraday), 50% ≈ 4.65, 61.8% ≈ 4.78. These line up neatly with next resistance steps.
• Alternative Fib (3.96 → 5.28 prior upswing): 61.8% = ~4.46—exactly where price is hovering. A classic decision zone; a sustained hold above 4.46 tilts odds to 4.65/4.78.
• Classical Pivots for next session (using Fri H/L/C: 4.93/4.21/4.45):
  • Pivot P ≈ 4.53
  • R1 ≈ 4.85, R2 ≈ 5.25, R3 ≈ 5.57
  • S1 ≈ 4.13, S2 ≈ 3.81, S3 ≈ 3.41 These corroborate the 4.85 target band.
• Support: 4.20–4.30 (demand shelf, gap zone), then 4.02 (swing low), 3.78 (8/18 ref). Resistance: 4.50–4.52 (Fib 38.2%), 4.65 (50%), 4.78 (61.8%), 4.90–5.10 (supply/squeeze pivot).

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) midpoint ~ (5.28 high + ~3.06 low across 9) / 2 ≈ 4.17; price above Tenkan—near-term bullish.
• Kijun (26) midpoint ≈ 3.5—price above Kijun, indicating positive trend state.
• Cloud likely below price; lagging span still above recent price action—setup favors attempts higher unless 4.20 fails.

8. Wyckoff lens

• Post-climactic run showed an automatic reaction to 4.02, followed by secondary tests 4.20–4.30. Friday’s absorption suggests Phase D re-accumulation behavior: higher lows within a range, preparing for testing the upper boundary (4.65–4.85) and potentially a sign of strength through ~4.90.

9. Elliott wave sketch (tactical)

• From 4.02 (8/27) to 4.93 (8/29 open) as a wave 1; pullback to ~4.21 as wave 2; wave 3 targeting >4.93 would project 1.272–1.618 extensions into 5.05–5.30 (larger resistances). For the next 24 hours, a prudent objective is the lower extension steps (4.65–4.85) given overhead supply.

10. Candles and gaps

• 8/29 daily candle: long lower wick, reclaim of mid-range—hammer-like. Needs confirmation (a higher high/close next session). Thursday was doji-like; potential Morning-Star sequence if Monday/Tuesday confirms.
• Gap from 8/27 close 4.02 to 8/28 open 4.27 largely unfilled (low 4.08). That gap zone (4.08–4.27) acts as demand. Friday’s low 4.21 probed this zone and was bought—bullish tell.

11. VWAP and intraday mean reversion

• 8/29 session VWAP approximated ~4.40–4.43. Price closed just above, suggesting balanced-to-bullish lean. Re-tests of VWAP on next session open are attractive entries if breadth holds.

12. Confluence summary (what matters most)

• Bullish: Higher low at 4.21; reclaimed VWAP; price above Tenkan/Kijun and 10–20 SMA; RSI mid-bullish; Fib confluence targets 4.65/4.78; pivot R1 4.85; volume absorption on lows.
• Bearish risks: Heavy supply 4.90–5.10; failure to hold 4.40–4.35 opens quick slide to 4.20; loss of 4.20 likely retest of 4.02. Macro/sector headline risk can amplify swings given ATR ~0.9.

13. Scenarios for next 24 hours (subjective probabilities)

• Bullish continuation (≈55%): Hold above 4.35–4.42, rotate through 4.50–4.52, squeeze into 4.65–4.78, optional extension to 4.85.
• Range consolidation (≈30%): 4.30–4.55 chop with multiple VWAP re-tests; coil for a later move.
• Bearish break (≈15%): Lose 4.35 fast → 4.20 test; if 4.20 snaps, 4.05–4.10 magnet; deeper probe limited unless broad risk-off.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Direction: Buy the dip (Long) into support with clear invalidation.
• Entry: 4.40 limit (accept 4.35–4.42 band) to align with VWAP/HL zone.
• Take-profit objective: 4.85 (pivot R1 and near Fib 61.8% retracement), with awareness of friction at 4.50–4.52 and 4.65–4.70.
• Suggested protective stop (not in order fields): 4.18 (below Friday’s 4.21 low and gap demand). R:R ≈ (4.85-4.40)/(4.40-4.18) ≈ 0.45/0.22 ≈ 2.0.
• Optional add-on: If price breaks and holds above 4.93 on volume, momentum extension into 5.05–5.10 is possible; consider trailing stops.

Next 24h expectation

• Base case: Early dip towards 4.36–4.42 gets bought; price rotates above 4.50, challenges 4.65, and fades into 4.70–4.80 zone by the end of the next active session. Failure to reclaim 4.50 early shifts the day into VWAP-centric chop with 4.30–4.55 boundaries.