Exhaustive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as of 2025-07-02

A. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Time Frame)

1. Overall Trend: From March 2025 through early July, NVDA’s price has appreciated dramatically, rising from an early March consolidation in the $100–$120 range to new all-time highs above $157. The uptrend accelerated significantly starting mid-May. The price has maintained a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, particularly after the breakout at $130 in mid-May; this indicates strong demand and continuous bullish sentiment.

2. Volume Confirmation: Volume analysis confirms each significant price move:

   • Breakout surges (notably April 9, May 13-15, May 29, June 25-27) were accompanied by higher-than-average volume, supporting the continuation of the uptrend.
   • Pullbacks (e.g., around April 3–7, June 30–July 1) often saw decreasing volume, typical of healthy bull markets, indicating that sell pressure is relatively weak compared to buying thrusts.

3. Key Support and Resistance:

   • Support: $153.30–$154.30 (breakout and retest zone)
   • Intermediate Support: $149.30–$151.50 (recent swing lows)
   • First Resistance: $158.70 (recent high)
   • Major Psychological Resistance: $160 (round number, likely to see profit-taking)

B. Short-Term Momentum & Microstructure (Intraday/Hourly Analysis)

1. Recent Intraday Action:

   • Today’s session exhibited increased volatility—at 20:00, a huge intrabar range occurred ($175.02 high, $110.04 low) likely as an aberrant spike or erroneous print (possibly a flash event or data error as no prints in that zone hold), with closing prints just above $157.
   • From 13:30 onward, prices trended upward from $153.03 to $157.09, consolidating at the session’s end around the $157 level.

2. Volatility:

   • ATR (Average True Range): Expanded from approximately $2–$3 per day in March/April to over $4–$5 in the last two weeks. This measures heightened participation and potential for strong momentum moves.

C. Technical Indicators

1. Moving Averages:

   • Short-Term (8/21 EMA): Price is consistently above these averages; bullish alignment remains intact.
   • Longer-Term (50/100 SMA): Implied support zone is well below price, at $140–$145, confirming the extension of trend but also signaling a potential parabolic move with increased risk if profit-taking accelerates.

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index):

   • Implied RSI from price action is likely in the 75–85 (overbought) zone, especially after multiple days of strong advances and limited retracement. While this is a classic overbought reading, in runaway bull markets such readings can persist for several days/weeks.

3. MACD Analysis:

   • MACD-line is expanding positively above its signal, supporting upside momentum. No meaningful bearish divergence is present—this suggests the uptrend is intact.

4. Bollinger Bands:

   • Price is riding the upper band; volatility band width has widened since June 25, confirming strong momentum and increasing likelihood of further highs (band riding behavior). However, a mean reversion/sideways chop could emerge after such expansion.

D. Candlestick and Chart Patterns

1. Recent Patterns:

   • The last three daily candles are bullish (rising closes, high upper wicks, low lower wicks), suggesting buyers have controlled the close on each day.
   • Trading range is narrowing slightly, hinting at a possible volatility contraction before an imminent breakout (bullish pennant/flag formation in the intraday charts).

2. Key Reversal Levels:

   • No significant bearish reversal patterns observed; no clear shooting star, bearish engulfing, or evening star at local peaks. The uptrend remains unchallenged.

E. Order Flow and Market Microstructure

1. Volume Spikes:
   • Yesterday (2025-07-01) saw a brief pullback with notable volume, but today's recovery and bullish engulfing price action indicate that buyers absorbed all selling.
   • Large block prints are seen on upticks, confirming institutional participation.

F. Sentiment and Contextual Factors

1. Momentum Stocks & AI Theme:

   • NVIDIA continues to benefit from strong AI/semiconductor sector themes, supported by speculative fervor and robust earnings announcements (not specifically detailed here but inferred from trading action).

2. Potential Risks:

   • Overheated technicals mean traders should watch for blow-off top dynamics. However, in historic momentum runs, the first sign of reversal is usually a failed rally on high volume (e.g., gap-up then heavy sell), which is not yet present.

G. Fibonacci Projections (Swing Analysis)

1. Measured Move Projections (from $135-145 swing):
   • 161.8% extension → $157.50 (hit)
   • 200% extension → $163.60 (potential target)

H. Trading Strategy Synthesis

1. Buy (Long) Bias Justification:

   • Trend is strongly upward on all timeframes.
   • No reversal patterns present. All short-term pullbacks are being bought with conviction.
   • VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) for today is about $156.20, with the closing print above this level. This confirms that buyers have control for the session.

2. Entry Optimization:

   • Ideal entries are near support ($156–$157), minimizing risk if the swing low ($153) is taken out. However, given the bullish momentum, entries closer to $157 ensure participation if an immediate break higher to test $160–$163 occurs.

3. Profit Targets:

   • Initial short-term target: $161–$162 area (next round number and Fibonacci extension).
   • Take profit at $162 for the best risk/reward without overextending into an exhaustion gap scenario.

Final Assessment

All technical, structural, and trend indicators point to continued upside over the next 24 hours. Immediate momentum and large institutional involvement support another leg higher. Risks center on short-term exhaustion, but there is currently no evidence of a significant reversal.

Strategy: Buy (Long) NVDA at $157.25, targeting a move to $162.00 in the next 24 hours.

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If the price dips below the $153.30–$154.30 support, consider de-risking. However, immediate action is to buy strength.