Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) for August 2025

1. Trend Analysis (Long-term & Short-term)

• Long-term Trend (April to July 2025):
  • NFLX was in a powerful uptrend from $800s (early April) up to an all-time high near $1341 (June 30). The stock saw a nearly 62% appreciation over three months, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
  • However, since the July peak, the trend has shifted.
• Short-term Trend (July to August):
  • Peak on June 30 at ~$1341, then steady, volatile decline to the current $1158.6 as of August 1.
  • Lower highs and lower lows post-July, indicating a likely short-term downtrend.

2. Support and Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance:
  • $1340 (June 30 all-time high)
  • $1300–1330 (late June consolidation)
  • $1280 (local lows and attempted bounces mid-July)
• Current/Recent Price: $1158.6
• Immediate Resistance: $1170–1185 (multiple bounces off this area in recent sessions)
• Support:
  • $1145 (July 31 low)
  • $1120 (minor congestion in early May)
  • $1100 (psychological and previous support in early May)

3. Candlestick and Chart Patterns

• Late July Candlesticks:
  • Multiple long lower wicks near $1160–$1170 (indicative of some buyer interest/support)
  • July 31 and August 1: Both close at/near the low of the day, with high volume, creating bearish marubozu candles.
  • No bullish reversal patterns yet observed.
• Patterns:
  • Head and Shoulders: July forms a possible minor head/shoulders structure with the left shoulder at $1280 (July 10), head at $1341 (June 30), and right shoulder at $1297 (July 16), neckline near $1200–$1170, now broken down.
  • Descending Channel: Post-June 30, price action follows a descending channel.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume Peaks:
  • Huge volume spikes July 18 (over 10M shares), which was a large bearish day – consistent with institutional selling or exit.
  • Volume has remained elevated on red days, suggesting further distribution pressure.
• Recent Sessions:
  • Bearish days see heavier volume compared to bullish reversals, confirming the current down move's strength.

5. Moving Averages

• 50-Day & 20-Day SMA/EMA (Visual Estimate):
  • Recent price action is now well below the 20-day moving average (currently near $1200+ region), suggesting strong short-term bearish momentum.
  • 50-day SMA is likely near $1240–$1250, also above current price.
  • Both MAs are starting to roll over/down; this cross often signals further weakness.

6. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• RSI (Estimated):
  • Fast multi-week selloff from $1340 to $1158 (a near 14% drop) would likely push the daily RSI into the high 30s or low 40s – slightly oversold but not at reversal levels.
• Interpretation:
  • Bears have the edge, but market is not yet extremely oversold (RSI <30) to suggest high-probability bounce.

7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD / Signal Line:
  • With the steep selloff, daily MACD has likely crossed below the signal line for the first time in months – a negation of bullish momentum and confirmation of short-term downtrend.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• Fib Levels from $827 (Apr 7) to $1341 (Jun 30):
  • 23.6%: ~$1214 (recent support, now resistance)
  • 38.2%: ~$1152 (CURRENT price zone – critical battleground)
  • 50%: ~$1083 (potential next target if downtrend holds)
  • Price is breaking down just below the important 38.2% level ($1152)—a further violation confirms bearish continuation.

9. Volatility Indicators (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR:
  • Current ATR is high; recent daily ranges exceed $20, showing increased volatility and risk.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price is at or breaching the lower Bollinger Band, often a sign of ongoing pressure. No evidence yet of a standard Bollinger mean-reversion bounce.

10. Price Action & Momentum

• Recent Sessions:
  • Bears have successfully pushed through multiple support levels. Attempts to reverse (July 29–30) have been quickly sold.
  • Momentum is clearly negative, with no decisive reversal attempt in place.

11. Volume Profile / Order Flow

• Profile:
  • Biggest trading volumes clustered between $1250–$1300 — area now overhead resistance.
  • Lighter volume below $1150 until $1100, meaning potential for fast drops to $1100 if sellers remain in control.

12. Sentiment Analysis and Fundamentals

• No Major Reversal News:
  • No fundamental/earnings catalyst observed in the session data; technicals dominate.
• Market Mood:
  • Flows favor sellers. No clear evidence of dip-buyers defending support zones aggressively.

13. Historical Analogues

• Behavior Post-Parabolic Run:
  • Similar to major 2020–2021 tech selloffs, NFLX after a large run-up is subject to swift pullbacks as profit-taking accelerates and buyers wait for deeper value.

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Synthesis and 24-Hour Prediction

• Bias: Bearish. The break below the neckline and consolidation at $1150–$1160, with increasing volume on down days, suggests that the path of least resistance remains lower.
• Short-Term Target: Expect price to test $1140–$1120 within the next 24 hours.
• Risk: Any sustained reversal above $1185 could invalidate the bearish scenario in the very short term, but at present, evidence for such a bounce is weak.

Optimal Trade Setup

• Sell/Short at $1158–$1160, targeting $1120.
• Cover (Take Profit) at $1120.
• Stop Loss for risk controls would be set above the $1185 minor resistance, but not required for this request.

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Conclusion: All analyzed signals—trendlines, moving averages, major breakdowns through key supports, large bearish volume, momentum, and pattern breaks—align to support a SELL (short) position, expecting short-term continuation to $1120.