LPTX at the Line in the Sand: Buying the $2.00 Gap-Fill for a Snapback Toward $2.40–$2.45

Executive summary

• Context: LPTX has undergone a regime shift since 11/12 with an extraordinary volume shock and multi-bagger repricing. Current price is $2.05 (near the 11/12 closing print), after closing $2.94 on 11/19, implying a sharp, single-session pullback into a key support/gap-fill zone.
• Thesis for next 24h: High-probability mean-reversion bounce if $2.00–$2.05 holds, with upside magnet levels at $2.26 (anchored VWAP), $2.33 (S2-to-P pivot backtest), $2.43 (50% Fib of 11/13–11/14 impulse, and prior closing pivot). Risk is a flush toward $1.81–$1.76 if $2.00 breaks with momentum.
• Actionable view: Buy the dip near $2.02–$2.06 with a take-profit window $2.38–$2.48. Tight risk controls below $1.92–$1.88 (analysis only) given event/biotech volatility.

1. Market structure and regime shift

• Pre-event baseline: From late July through early November, LPTX traded sub-$0.60 with compressing ranges and relatively modest volume punctuated by isolated spikes. Trend was sideways-to-down into early November.
• Catalytic break: 11/12 printed a massive gap-up (O: ~$0.605, H: ~$2.54, C: ~$2.05) on ~786M shares – a near-historic liquidity shock for a micro-cap biotech. This typically signals a fundamental regime change (data readout/clinical partnership/financing update), and sets a new value area.
• Post-gap action (11/13–11/19): • 11/13: Pullback to 1.34–1.98 range, close $1.76 (absorbed initial profit-taking). • 11/14: Explosive continuation to H $3.55, close $2.75 on 263M shares. • 11/17–11/19: Range 2.40–3.37 with closes $2.43, $2.97, $2.94; 11/19 candle was a long upper-wick (shooting star-type) from H $3.3699 closing $2.94, hinting near-term reversal.
• Today’s context: Spot $2.05 marks a full retrace of 11/12’s close and sits in the gap-fill/structural pivot zone between $1.95–$2.10.

2. Volume, liquidity, and anchored view

• Event-volume cluster: 11/12 (786M), 11/14 (263M) dominate the new composite value. Subsequent days remain elevated (25–92M), confirming sustained interest/liquidity.
• Anchored VWAP (aVWAP) from the 11/12 event (approximation using day-level close-weighting): ~ $2.26. Current $2.05 trades below aVWAP (discount), often a tactical long setup if structural support is intact.
• OBV/accumulation-distribution (qualitative): Net OBV remains far above pre-event baseline despite recent pullback; CMF toggled positive on 11/14 and 11/18, negative on 11/17 and 11/19 – mixed, but the overarching post-gap accumulation bias persists.

3. Support/Resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: $2.05 (11/12 C; gap-day close pivot), $2.00 (psych), $1.95 (minor shelf), $1.81 (Fib 78.6%), $1.76 (11/13 close and local base), $1.66 (S3 from 11/19 pivots – extreme flush).
• Immediate resistances: $2.18–$2.20 (Fib 61.8% zone), $2.26 (aVWAP), $2.33–$2.36 (daily S2 reversion / minor shelf), $2.43–$2.45 (Fib 50% and 11/17 C), $2.64–$2.71 (S1 to 38.2% Fib), $2.97–$3.00 (11/18 C/round), $3.30–$3.37 (11/19 H and R1 backtest).

4. Fibonacci framework of the impulse

• Measured impulse: 11/13 L $1.34 to 11/14 H $3.55 (range $2.21).
• Key retracement levels: 38.2% = $2.706; 50% = $2.445; 61.8% = $2.184; 78.6% = $1.812.
• Current $2.05 sits between 61.8% and 78.6% retracement – a classic high-probability catchment for Wave-2 type pullbacks/mean reversion. Confluence with 11/12 C adds validity.

5. Pivot points (derived from 11/19 H/L/C: 3.3699/2.70/2.94)

• Daily P ≈ $3.003; R1 ≈ $3.307; S1 ≈ $2.637; S2 ≈ $2.333; S3 ≈ $1.664.
• Trading below S2 ($2.333) into the $2.05 area places price in an overshoot zone often followed by P->S2 reversion if support holds. Expect magnets at $2.33 then $2.64 on any bounce sequence, with $2.33 the first achievable within 24h.

6. Moving averages and trend

• Short MAs (approximate): • 5-EMA ≈ $2.55–$2.60 given recent closes – price is currently well below, favoring a snapback. • 10-EMA ≈ high-$2.3s to mid-$2.4s – below recent closes but above current price, also a magnet for mean reversion.
• Longer MAs (20-SMA) are distorted by the sub-$0.60 pre-event regime and lag reality; they will stair-step higher over time but are not decision-quality today.
• Trend inference: Primary trend has flipped up post-gap; current move is a secondary pullback within that new uptrend.

7. Momentum and oscillators (qualitative, daily)

• RSI(14): Likely cooled from overbought (>70 around 11/14–11/18) toward the mid-40s with today’s drawdown. This pushes into neutral-to-slightly-oversold territory within an uptrend – supportive of bounce setups.
• Stochastics: Likely sub-30 after the long upper-wick reversal and follow-through – compatible with a reflex rally.
• MACD: Positive histogram likely rolling over; signal-line cross risk is present, but MACD remains net positive vs zero line post-gap. Short-term bearish momentum is counter-trend but often brief if structural supports hold.

8. Volatility and bands

• ATR(5) ≈ $0.97 (very elevated). Implies feasible 24h swings of ~35–50% of spot in either direction.
• Bollinger (short lookback): Current price is near or below the mid-to-lower band region after residing at/above the upper band for several sessions – a typical mean-reversion point.
• Keltner Channels: Price now hugging/breaching the lower KC on an ATR spike is a tactical long entry condition for reversion players.

9. Pattern read

• 11/19’s shooting-star style candle telegraphed a retrace. The current test of $2.05 completes a gap-fill and tags a high-confluence demand zone ($2.00–$2.10). If buyers defend this area in the first 1–2 hours of the next session, probability favors a bounce toward $2.26/$2.33 first, then $2.43 if momentum builds.
• Micro-structure scenario: A small bearish gap open that quickly reclaims $2.05–$2.10 would be a strong long trigger. Conversely, sustained trade < $2.00 with increasing volume opens a vacuum to $1.81/$1.76.

10. Elliott Wave lens (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 1.34 -> 3.55.
• Wave 2: Corrective retrace now probing 61.8–78.6% zone (2.18–1.81). If Wave 2 is concluding near $2.00, a Wave 3 advance could begin, initially targeting the $2.70–$3.00 zone. Within 24h, a portion of that move (toward $2.33–$2.45) is reasonable.

11. Probability-weighted 24h scenarios

• Base case (50%): Hold $2.00–$2.05, bounce to $2.26 -> $2.33, with stretch to $2.40–$2.45. Close in the $2.30–$2.45 band.
• Bear case (30%): Lose $2.00 on volume; accelerate to $1.81–$1.76 demand; reflex bounce back toward $1.95–$2.05 by close.
• Bull case (20%): Strong open, immediate reclaim of $2.20; trend day toward $2.43, potential extension to $2.64 if momentum and liquidity return.

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge sources: aVWAP discount ($2.26 vs $2.05), gap-day close confluence ($2.05), Fib cluster (61.8–78.6%), daily S2/S3 overshoot, and elevated ATR favoring reversion.
• Timing: Prefer a limit entry on early weakness/flat prints near $2.03 (inside the $2.00–$2.06 demand). Confirmation cue: minute-by-minute higher lows above $2.00 and reclaim of $2.10–$2.12.
• Take-profit objective: First target $2.33; primary TP window $2.38–$2.48. I’ll set $2.43 to align with 50% Fib and prior closing pivot – a high-odds magnet within 24h.
• Risk note (analysis only): If $2.00 breaks on volume and fails retest, expect a fast trip toward $1.81–$1.76; that’s where the next reactive long would set up. Given biotech event risk, position sizing should account for potential 20–30% intraday swings.

13. Why Buy, not Sell

• Although momentum is down short-term, the location is optimal for a bounce: multi-factor support, aVWAP discount, and a completed gap-fill. Shorting into $2.00 support with ATR~$1 is unfavorable R:R; upside magnets are closer and likely to be tested if buyers step in.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: $1.92–$2.52.
• Bias: Mean-reversion up from $2.00–$2.05 toward $2.33, with a realistic print into $2.40–$2.45 if tape strengthens.

Tools and techniques used

• Price action and market structure (gap analysis, wick diagnostics)
• Volume analytics (event volume, OBV/CMF bias), anchored VWAP from 11/12
• Fibonacci retracements (1.34 -> 3.55 impulse)
• Classic floor pivots (from 11/19 H/L/C) and weekly context
• Moving averages (5/10 EMA), trend inference
• Momentum (RSI, Stoch), MACD qualitative
• Volatility (ATR), Bollinger/Keltner bands
• Elliott wave heuristic
• Scenario and risk/reward analysis

Bottom line

• Location favors a tactical long. Buy pullbacks into $2.02–$2.06; target $2.43 within the next session, acknowledging high volatility and binary news risk common to biotech names.