Lucid Group, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

LCID Downtrend Intensifies: Technicals Signal Another Leg Down – Why the Bounce Will Fail

Daily Timeframe: The broader structure since early March shows a pronounced downtrend. After peaking above $2.75–2.80 and even touching $3.00 in May, LCID began declining sharply. The bears have been in control since late May.
Short-Term Trend: Since mid-June, the downward momentum intensified, with lower highs and lower lows, culminating in a fresh low at $1.98 on July 1. The bounce in recent sessions has been modest relative to the prior sell-off, suggesting we're in a bearish retracement rather than a bullish reversal.

Immediate Resistance: $2.23–2.24 (July 3 high, also late June congestion)
Next Downside Support: $2.05 (recent low), then $1.98 (multi-month low)
Intermediate Resistance Above: $2.33 (recent highs, June 18/21), $2.40 (mid-June consolidation)

Massive volume on July 1 ($2.03–$2.05 with over 212M shares) signals panic sell-off and a possible temporary flush. Subsequent sessions lack confirmation of strong accumulation-by-dips—volume on up-days has diminished, indicating no conviction from institutional buyers.

ATR (Average True Range): Visually, daily ranges are about $0.10–$0.18, suggesting heightened volatility. Historically, sharp downtrends with high volatility tend to have brief, weak bounces before retesting/rebreaking lows.

10/20 Day EMAs: Both would be sloping sharply downward; price remains beneath both, a powerful continuation signal.
50 Day MA: Well above price (~$2.33), confirming severe bearish momentum.

Estimated RSI is in the low 30s, reflecting that any oversold bounce is not yet conclusively underway.

MACD lines are deeply negative, with no sign of crossing upward—momentum remains to the downside, and histogram bars suggest persistent selling pressure.

July 1: Massive red bar, closing near daily low ($2.03), suggesting aggressive selling.
July 2-3: Short-bodied candles with upper wicks (especially July 3 intraday), showing sellers fade every bounce into the $2.16–$2.18 area. No bullish engulfing or reversal pattern is evident.
Intraday (July 3): Wild opening spike quickly faded; price could not sustain above $2.17, reverting back to $2.16 area. Weak intraday close.

From early June, a descending triangle setup was visible, with a series of lower highs against a $2.10–$2.15 horizontal support. Breakdown confirmed as $2.10 was breached with volume.

Failure to attract strong buying despite high volume dips indicates capitulation not met by big money stepping in.
Sentiment: Persistent negative. Market is punishing growth/loss-making EV companies; broader sector weakness exacerbates individual risk.

Statistically, after a momentum break as powerful as the late June/early July drop, a 24-48 hour bounce has low odds unless a hammer or bullish engulfing pattern emerges—which we do not see.

From June 17 high ($2.24) to July 1 low ($1.98), the 38.2% retracement sits ~$2.08, and the 50% is $2.11. Price rallied just above these but failed, suggesting sellers are using the overhead supply.

Bearish Momentum Remains Intact: No evidence of accumulation or trend change; technicals overwhelmingly indicate further downside.
Odds favor breakdown back toward the $2.05–$2.00 support within the next session. Intraday bounces to $2.17–$2.18 will be sold.
Potential for new low: If $1.98 is breached, next psychological target is $1.90, but likely there will be short-term covering around that level.

Sell/Short entry: On a bounce to $2.16–$2.18, maximizing entry at current or slightly higher price.
Price target: $2.05, with extension to $2.00 if momentum stays heavy.
Stop/Loss: Conservative traders could use $2.23 as a stop (recent high).

Trade Type: Sell (Short position)
Rationale: Dominant downtrend, weak bounces, significant volume on sell-offs, failed technical retracements, and no reversal signals.