IRBT: Buy the 5.00 Pivot — Position for a Push Toward 5.56–5.64 in the Next 24 Hours

Comprehensive, step-by-step technical assessment for IRBT (next 24 hours)

1. What the tape says right now

• Instrument/Price: iRobot (IRBT), last ≈ $5.00. Currency: USD
• Regime shift: Since 12/1, price exploded from ~1.6 to >5 on extreme volume (multiple 10M–200M+ share days). This is a high-volatility, event-driven regime with rapid repricing and thick intraday order flow.
• Today’s intraday structure (12/11): High 5.64, Low 4.60, Close 5.00. Large upper and lower wicks, heavy volume imbalances near 14:30 and 20:30 UTC. Closing cross concentrated around ~5.00 (large HVN), suggesting a value/magnet area.

2. Price action and trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Strong bullish impulse from 12/1–12/10, followed by an indecision day (12/11) that retraced intraday but closed near value (~5). The broader uptrend remains intact; today printed a long-legged doji/spinning-top at resistance, typical of a pause/re-accumulation rather than confirmed reversal (no decisive close below key support).
• Intraday (hourly) trend: Lower highs from 5.64 to ~5.44 into the afternoon, then stabilization around 5.00 with repeated defenses of ~4.90–5.05. This looks like a bull flag/base building on the HVN.

3. Moving averages and trend metrics

• 5D SMA ≈ 4.13 (rising). 10D SMA ≈ 3.23. 20D SMA ≈ 2.45. Price >> all SMAs; slope positive. This confirms a strong uptrend with price riding well above medium-term means.
• EMA stack (conceptually): 8/12/21 EMAs would be positively stacked given the thrust. No bearish crossover signal. Trend strength elevated (ADX would likely be rising >20 given range expansion and directional move).

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely high but cooling from overbought after the push to 5.55 (12/10). Today’s neutral close near 5 likely pulled RSI down slightly from extreme levels, a constructive reset within an uptrend.
• Stochastics: Turning down from overbought on the pullback, but not yet in oversold; in strong uptrends, shallow stochastic pullbacks often precede another leg higher.
• MACD: Strongly positive histogram after the recent surge; today likely decreased the histogram slightly but no bearish cross. Still supports trend continuation bias.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) estimate ≈ 0.90–1.00. Expect 24h range on the order of ±0.9 around the mean, implying 4.10–5.90 is well within normal in this regime.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Price is hugging/near the upper band after a squeeze-release. Bands expanded sharply this week; consolidation near the upper band is bullish (no mean-reversion breakdown yet).
• Keltner Channels: With ATR elevated, KC envelopes widened; price oscillating between midline and upper band—typical of a bull channel.

6. Volume, flow, and participation

• OBV/Volume thrust: Multi-session upside thrust with historic volume (Dec 3: ~228M shares; Dec 10: ~130M). OBV would be making higher highs, confirming the price advance.
• MFI/CMF: With strong up days on heavy volume and only one indecision day, money flow still skews positive.
• Intraday VWAP (12/11): Weighted heavily by large prints ~5.00–5.14 and the 20:30 UTC block around ~4.99–5.07; closing below/near VWAP suggests balance rather than aggressive distribution. The 5.00 level is a clear liquidity node (HVN) and likely pivot for tomorrow.

7. Market structure: support/resistance and supply/demand zones

• Immediate support: 4.90–5.05 (intraday defended multiple times; HVN). Below that: 4.60 (today’s low), then 4.52 (S1 pivot), and 4.08 (Fib 38.2% of the 1.57→5.64 leg).
• Immediate resistance: 5.24 (12/10 close/pivot), 5.56 (R1), 5.64 (today’s high), then 6.10–6.12 (R2/round number cluster). A break and hold >5.24/5.30 opens a clean run to 5.56–5.64.

8. Fibonacci mapping (recent impulse)

• Swing used: 1.57 (12/01–02 zone low) → 5.64 (12/11 high). Range = 4.07.
• Key retracements from 5.64: 38.2% ≈ 4.09; 50% ≈ 3.60; 61.8% ≈ 3.16. Price is holding far above 38.2%—a shallow retrace consistent with ongoing Wave 4/flag rather than a top.

9. Classical pivots for the next session (using 12/11 H/L/C: 5.64/4.60/5.00)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = (5.64+4.60+5.00)/3 ≈ 5.08
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 5.56 | S1 = 2P − H ≈ 4.52
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 6.12 | S2 ≈ 4.04
• R3 ≈ 6.60 | S3 ≈ 3.48 Interpretation: Closing just under P (5.08) but sitting on the 5.00 value area suggests early chop around P with a positive skew if buyers reclaim and hold above P. R1 at ~5.56 aligns with today’s high zone.

10. Ichimoku (conceptual)

• Price well above Kumo; conversion (Tenkan) above base (Kijun) in a strong impulse likely. Lagging span should be above price/cloud, supporting bullish context. Pullbacks toward Kijun often buyable in strong trends; that would likely sit around mid-4s, aligning with S1–S2.

11. Elliott Wave framing

• Potential count: Wave 1 (12/01–12/03) to ~3.4; Wave 2 pullback to ~3.03 (12/04); Wave 3 extension into ~5.55 (12/10); Wave 4 shallow consolidation near ~5.00 (today); prospective Wave 5 test toward ~5.6–6.1. This aligns with pivots (R1 5.56, R2 6.12).

12. Wyckoff lens

• Accumulation -> Markup Phase E dynamics since 12/01. Today’s long-wick day resembles a test/absorption rather than a full upthrust failure (close held near value, not a close-on-lows breakdown). HVN ~5.00 implies significant two-way trade; acceptance above 5.08 (P) would reveal demand dominance.

13. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Daily: Long-legged doji/spinning top after a strong up day = pause/indecision. Requires confirmation. Given trend context, bias is continuation after digestion.
• Intraday: Bull flag/ascending triangle attempts above ~4.90–5.05 base; measured move would target 5.55–5.65 on a clean break.

14. Mean reversion vs trend continuation

• Trend continuation case: Strong volume thrusts, higher lows on daily, price consolidation near highs—statistically favors another test of highs within 1–2 sessions.
• Mean reversion risk: Closing below pivot could invite a quick tag of 4.80 and even S1 4.52 if early sellers press. However, lack of closing breakdown and persistent HVN at 5.00 reduce odds of a deep immediate retrace barring fresh negative news.

15. Probability-weighted path for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Early balance around 4.95–5.10 → reclaim P=5.08 → grind to 5.24/5.30 → momentum push to R1 5.56; intraday high risk up to 5.60–5.65; close back 5.25–5.55.
• Bear case (30%): Fail to reclaim P; quick liquidity vacuum to 4.80–4.70; buyers step in; range 4.70–5.05; close 4.85–5.05. Deeper extension into 4.52 (S1) is the tail-risk path if liquidity thins.
• Tail bull (15%): Break/hold >5.56 early, squeeze to 5.80–6.12 (R2) on momentum; possible exhaustion wick later in the day.

16. Trade plan synthesis and risk management

• Edge: Buy the HVN/pivot retest with trend tailwind; aim for R1 test. Risk is defined below 4.60–4.52 cluster (today’s low and S1). Reward to 5.56–5.64 is attractive vs a ~0.35–0.45 risk if entering ~4.95–5.05 and using a 4.59–4.62 stop.
• Entry: Limit buy in the 4.92–5.02 zone; optimal anchor ≈ 4.96 (just below psychological 5 and near value) to catch liquidity sweeps.
• Target/exit: Primary TP ≈ 5.56 (R1) with potential extension into 5.60–5.64 if momentum and breadth align. Consider scaling if >5.56 prints hold.
• Stop (not required by prompt but prudent): 4.59 (below day’s structural shelf and just above S1 4.52 gives room while avoiding capitulation undercut).

17. Bottom line

• The dominant signal stack (trend/MAs, volume thrusts, shallow Fib retrace, Elliott/Wyckoff continuation, pivot confluence) favors a long bias from the 4.90–5.05 value area, targeting a retest of 5.56–5.64 in the next 24 hours.

Forecast for next 24 hours: Expected range 4.80–5.65; bias toward topside resolution if 5.08 pivot is reclaimed and held.

Actionable levels

• Buy zone: 4.92–5.02 (optimal ~4.96)
• Primary target: 5.56 (R1) with stretch to 5.60–5.64
• Key bullish trigger: Reclaim/hold above 5.08 (daily pivot)
• Risk line: 4.59–4.60 (break implies test of 4.52 possible)