IOBT: Holding the 2.00 Line — Set for a VWAP Reclaim Pop Toward 2.24

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish if 2.00–2.03 holds on the open; expect a bounce toward 2.18–2.24 with resistance overhead at 2.26–2.33. If 1.95 fails on volume, momentum flips bearish toward 1.89–1.81.
• Proposed trade: Buy-the-dip near 2.02 (limit), target 2.24 within 24h; protective stop (discipline) below 1.89. R:R ≈ 1.7:1.

Context and structure of the tape

• Regime shift: After the Aug 11 event-driven capitulation to 1.05 on massive volume, the stock staged a powerful mean-reversion and momentum surge, peaking at 2.79 on Aug 18. Since then, price has consolidated in a high-volatility band (≈1.95–2.43), with declining volume — classic post-spike digestion.
• Today (Aug 19) intraday: Early thrust to 2.43 failed; the day trended down toward the close with lower highs and closes below intraday VWAP, but buyers defended the 2.02–2.06 shelf repeatedly. After-hours is quiet around 2.09, current price 2.05.

Multi-timeframe technicals

1. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 1.91 (calc from last 20 closes). Price 2.05 > 20SMA: near-term uptrend intact versus mean.
• 50-day SMA (approx) in 1.60–1.70 zone given June/July base around 1.30–1.50 plus recent ramp; price > 50SMA: intermediate trend positive.
• 9/21 EMA slope (qualitative): Bullish inflection post Aug 11; 9EMA likely near ~2.05–2.10, 21EMA ~1.90–1.95. Price compressing between them — typical for a coiled continuation.
• Conclusion: Trend favoring upside, but immediate momentum stalled; consolidation above rising MAs is constructive.

2. Momentum oscillators

• RSI-14 ≈ 49 (computed). Neutral-mildly bearish intraday but above oversold; room for an upswing.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Near midline after pullback; a %K cross-up from ~40–50 zone tends to favor a bounce in high-volatility names.
• MACD (qualitative): Bullish cross likely occurred post Aug 11; histogram has faded toward zero after the 2.79 spike. A reset near the signal line with price above 20SMA supports a bounce scenario.
• Conclusion: Momentum cooled from overbought; neutral reset that often precedes a secondary push.

3. Volatility and ranges

• ATR-14 (approx) ≈ 0.45–0.50. Expect 20–25% swing bands day to day.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 1.91; upper band estimated ~2.45–2.55; lower ~1.27–1.35. Price is just above mid-band with band width still elevated — room to expand either way; probability-weighted drift is upward given trend.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20±1.5*ATR): Center ~1.91; upper ~2.61; lower ~1.21. Friday/Monday test of upper KC followed by mean reversion is normal; currently sitting between center and upper — constructive.
• Donchian 20-day: High 2.79, low 1.05; price in the upper-middle of the range, not extended.

4. Market structure: support/resistance, supply/demand

• Immediate support: 2.00–2.03 (today’s defended shelf), then 1.95 (round number and today’s near low), 1.89 (Aug 7 close), 1.81 (Aug 8 close). Deep support at 1.28–1.31 (post-event base), and ultimate capitulation low 1.05.
• Overhead resistance: 2.15–2.18 (prior closes and intraday VWAP cluster), 2.23–2.26 (swing pivot and top of today’s mid-session range), 2.33 (daily pivot R1 for tomorrow), 2.38–2.48 (supply zone from Jul 28 and Fib 23.6%), then 2.60–2.80 (upper KC and spike high).
• Volume profile: Heavy prints around 2.10–2.20 last two sessions; that’s a developing value area. Liquidity pockets above at 2.24–2.33 could accelerate moves once reclaimed. Below, thin air between 1.95 and 1.89 can speed downside if 2.00 breaks on volume.

5. Fibonacci mapping (swing low 1.05 on Aug 11 to swing high 2.79 on Aug 18; range 1.74)

• 23.6%: 2.38
• 38.2%: 2.13
• 50%: 1.92
• 61.8%: 1.71
• Current price 2.05 sits between 38.2% and 50% retracements; this is a typical buy-the-dip zone for continuation provided 1.95–2.00 holds. A reclaim of 2.13–2.15 (Fib 38.2%/pivot) is often the trigger toward 2.23–2.38.

6. Pivot points (derived from Aug 19 H 2.43, L 1.9625, C 2.05)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.148
• R1 ≈ 2.333; R2 ≈ 2.615; R3 ≈ 2.800
• S1 ≈ 1.865; S2 ≈ 1.680; S3 ≈ 1.395
• Interpretation: Trading below P into the close is mildly bearish short-term; for upside confirmation tomorrow, expect a VWAP/P reclaim above ~2.15. First objective aligns with 2.23–2.33 zone.

7. Intraday VWAP and tape

• Intraday VWAP (Aug 19) estimated ~2.14–2.16 given heavy early prints. Price closed and after-hours below VWAP — that’s a candidate for a next-day VWAP magnet if early selling exhausts. A morning undercut of 2.00 followed by a fast reclaim of 2.05–2.10 would be a high-odds long signal (failed breakdown setup).

8. Candlestick and pattern analysis

• Aug 18 printed a long upper wick (shooting star-like) into 2.79; Aug 19 probed both sides but closed mid-range — indecision spinning top with range contraction. Combined, that’s classic two-day digestion after a blow-off and often leads to a stabilizing day with a fade-then-rip sequence.
• Current two- to four-day structure resembles a bull flag/ascending wedge within 1.95–2.26. Break over 2.26 targets 2.33 then 2.38 quickly; loss of 1.95 risks 1.89/1.81.

9. Volume/accumulation indicators

• OBV (qualitative): Steep rise post Aug 11 despite high churn; no distribution breakdown evident — net accumulation persists.
• MFI (qualitative): Likely mid-range; no overbought readings. Room to expand up.
• Volume trend: From 82.9M on Aug 11 to 37.9M on Aug 15 to 13.7M on Aug 18 and 2.73M on Aug 19 — healthy volume compression into support, which favors a volatility expansion soon.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price above a rising Tenkan and Kijun region after a post-spike pullback would typically see Tenkan ~2.05–2.10 and Kijun ~1.90–1.95. A Tenkan bounce while Kijun flattens is a common continuation pattern. Cloud likely below price given the recent surge.

11. Statistical/behavioral edges

• Mean reversion following two-session pullback from a spike high often produces a green day if the prior day’s low holds early. With ATR ~0.47, a median up-move of 0.18–0.22 is plausible, aligning with a 2.20–2.27 target zone from a 2.02–2.05 entry.
• Post-gap behavior: After large event gaps, the first consolidation above the 50% retracement (1.92) tends to resolve higher at least once before any deeper retrace. We are currently above 1.92.

12. Risk factors

• Biotech headline risk remains elevated; any trial/update can overwhelm technicals.
• Liquidity gaps intraday: breaks below 1.95 can accelerate to 1.89/1.81 quickly.

Synthesis and 24h path expectation

• Base case (55–60%): Early dip into 2.00–2.03, quick reclaim of 2.05–2.10, grind through 2.15 pivot/VWAP, push into 2.18–2.24; stalls near 2.26. Close near 2.20–2.24.
• Bear case (25–30%): Heavy open, loss of 1.95; slide to 1.89 with reflex bounce to ~1.98–2.02; close sub-2.05.
• Bull extension (10–15%): Strong open through 2.15 off the bell; impulse over 2.26 triggers chase into 2.33 then 2.38 if volume > prior hour’s VWAP; fade late.

Trade plan and execution detail

• Setup: Mean-reversion-to-momentum flip.
• Entry: Limit buy 2.02 near defended shelf; alternatively, momentum add/secondary entry above 2.16 (VWAP/pivot reclaim). Primary plan uses the dip entry for better R:R.
• Stop (discipline): 1.89 (below S1 proximity and below Aug 7 close). If aggressive, a tighter stop 1.95 is viable but risks noise whipsaw.
• Target: 2.24 (prior supply and within R1 approach), with stretch 2.33 if momentum is strong. Use partials at 2.16 and 2.22 if actively managed.
• Position sizing: Given ATR ~0.47 and stop width ~0.13 (2.02→1.89), size so that 1R loss equals a small, predefined fraction of capital (e.g., 0.5–1%).

Why Buy vs Sell

• Buy case: Uptrend vs rising MAs, price in 38.2–50% Fib buy zone, repeated intraday defenses at 2.00–2.06, volume compression at support, and an easily identifiable invalidation level (1.95/1.89). The path of least resistance is a VWAP/pivot reclaim into nearby supply.
• Sell case considered but rejected: Short below 2.15 has limited reward to 1.95 before strong support, with substantial squeeze risk if 2.15–2.18 reclaims. The asymmetric side for the next 24h is the long from 2.00–2.05.

Bottom line

• I favor a tactical long at 2.02 aiming for 2.24 within 24 hours, with a firm stop under 1.89 and a plan to bail early if 1.95 breaks on volume.