FLNC After the Waterfall: High-Volatility Bounce Likely, But Sellers Still Control the Next 24 Hours

Market snapshot (FLNC)

• Current price: $18.95
• Last daily candle (2026-02-05): O 24.85 / H 25.62 / L 18.60 / C 18.95, volume ~19.7M (capitulation-level vs prior days)
• Context: After a strong run-up into late Jan (>$33), FLNC experienced a two-day crash: 32.23 → 28.99 → 18.95.

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1) Trend & structure (Dow / swing analysis)

Primary trend (Oct → Jan)

• Clear uptrend from mid-Nov lows (~15.2) to late-Jan highs (~33.5), making higher highs and higher lows.

Immediate trend (last 2 sessions)

• Trend break / regime shift: The drop from 33.5 (Feb-04 high) to 18.6 (Feb-05 low) is a violent impulse down that breaks multiple prior swing lows.
• This typically transitions price into a bearish / mean-reversion regime for at least several sessions, even if a dead-cat bounce occurs.

Implication: The dominant force for the next 24h is likely still supply/forced selling + overhead resistance, not trend-following upside.

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2) Volatility, range expansion & “event candle” logic

• Feb-05 daily range: 25.62 - 18.60 = 7.02 points (~37% of current price). That’s an extreme expansion day.
• Such “event candles” (gap/drive + huge range) often lead to:
  1. Continuation (another leg down) or
  2. Mean-reverting bounce that stalls below key resistance and then fades.

Given the close near the lows (18.95 vs 18.60 low) and weak intraday recovery, the path of least resistance remains down / choppy with downside probes.

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3) Support/Resistance mapping (price memory)

Nearest supports (below)

• $18.60 (today’s low): first “line in the sand.” A break typically triggers stops.
• $18.00 (round number): psychological support.
• $17.90–17.00 zone: prior consolidation area in mid/late Nov (multiple closes ~17.0–17.9). This is the most logical “next shelf.”
• $16.25–15.50: Nov breakdown region (16.25 close on Nov-13; 15.51 close on Nov-20).

Overhead resistances (above)

• $20.00–20.50: round number + several late-Dec closes near 19.8–20.45.
• $21.95–22.25: important intraday pivot today (14:30 bar close ~21.95; Jan-05 close ~22.25). Likely heavy supply.
• $23.00–23.80: Jan-02 close 23.01; Jan-13 close 23.82.
• $25.50–26.50: gap/drive region from today’s open and early hours.

Implication: There is thick resistance stacked above and comparatively thin support immediately below (only today’s low/round number) before the 17s.

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4) Volume & capitulation read

• Feb-05 volume (~19.7M) is far higher than typical prior daily volumes (often ~4M–7M).
• This can be capitulation, but capitulation does not guarantee immediate reversal; it often produces one strong bounce attempt that fails under resistance.

Implication: Expect high volatility and a bounce-sell environment rather than clean trending up.

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5) Candlestick / price action signals

• Feb-04: massive intraday breakdown (H 33.5, L 26.39, C 28.99) = bearish reversal from highs.
• Feb-05: continuation gap/drive down with close near lows = bearish follow-through.
• Intraday (hourly) shows step-downs: 26 → 25.8 → 24.6 → 21.95 → 21.12 → 19.78 → 18.82 → ~18.5.

This resembles a distribution-to-liquidation cascade.

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6) Moving averages (inferred positioning)

We don’t compute exact MA values here, but structurally:

• Price at 18.95 is likely below short-term MAs (10/20-day) given recent trading in the high 20s/low 30s.
• It is probably around or below intermediate levels from Dec/early Jan.

In sharp breaks, MAs become dynamic resistance and rallies into them are often sold.

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7) Fibonacci retracement (anchored to the Jan impulse)

Anchor approximate swing:

• Low (Jan-07 close area): ~20.56
• High (Feb-04 high): ~33.50 Range ≈ 12.94
• 38.2% retrace: 33.50 - 0.382*12.94 ≈ 28.56
• 50% retrace: ≈ 27.03
• 61.8% retrace: ≈ 25.50

Price has blown through all these retracement supports and is now far below, which is a classic sign the move is not a normal pullback but a breakdown / repricing.

Implication: Fibonacci supports above are now resistance magnets on any rebound (esp. ~25.5).

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8) Mean reversion / bounce probability (next 24h)

After a ~40% day, a bounce is common, but usually:

• bounce magnitude is often 0.236–0.382 of the crash leg before sellers reassert. Crash leg today: ~25.6 → 18.6 = 7.0
• 23.6% bounce: 18.6 + 1.65 ≈ 20.25
• 38.2% bounce: 18.6 + 2.68 ≈ 21.28
• 50% bounce: 18.6 + 3.51 ≈ 22.11

These align well with resistance zones (20.0–20.5, ~21.2–22.3).

Base case (24h): choppy bounce attempts into $20–$21.5 followed by renewed selling pressure.

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9) Scenario planning (24h forecast)

Bearish continuation (higher probability)

• Price fails to reclaim $20.5–$21.5 and rolls over.
• Re-test of $18.60 likely; break leads to $18.00 → $17.20–$17.90.

Relief bounce (secondary)

• Oversold bounce pushes to $20.25–$21.30, potentially spiking to $22.10.
• But unless it reclaims and holds >$22.25 (key pivot), bounce is likely sold.

Net expectation: Downward bias with extreme volatility; any strength is more likely to be sold than to start a durable uptrend within 24h.

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Trade conclusion

Given:

• two-day waterfall selloff,
• close near lows,
• heavy overhead resistance,
• high probability of bounce-then-fade behavior,

I would choose: Sell (Short Position)

Prefer entering on a rebound (better R:R) rather than shorting at the hole.

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Optimal entry/exit (next 24h)

• Open (short) ideal: $20.90
  • Rationale: aligns with likely mean-reversion bounce band (20.25–21.30) and sits below the heavier $21.95–$22.25 supply zone; gives entry after some rebound without chasing the lows.
• Close (take profit): $17.60
  • Rationale: targets the next major support shelf in the high 17s (Nov price memory) without insisting on a full collapse.

(If price never bounces to ~20.9, the conservative approach is to skip rather than chase shorts into $18–$19 support.)