COHR: Post-gap gravity in control — short the pivot, aim for the flush

Step-by-step multi-timeframe read

• Context and regime: COHR rallied from the mid-50s in April to 118 on Aug 12, then suffered a breakaway gap down on Aug 14 (open 91.1, low 86.5, close 91.65) on extreme volume, creating a major overhead supply zone from ~95 to ~114. Since then, price has stabilized around 90–93 with lower highs intraday. Current price 90.49.

• Trend structure • Moving averages: Price is decisively below its 10/20-day moving averages (estimated 10D ~100, 20D ~101–103) and slightly below an estimated 50D in the low-90s. Long-term trend likely still above a rising 200D in the 70s–80s, but short- to medium-term trend is down. Bearish hierarchy: price < 10D < 20D; price ≲ 50D. • ADX/DMI (qualitative): -DI above +DI and ADX elevated after the gap, indicating a strong downtrend phase that has not yet mean-reverted. Bearish.

• Momentum and oscillators • RSI-14 (daily, est.): ~36–40 after the gap. Not deeply oversold anymore; room to move lower before hitting capitulation levels. Bearish to neutral. • MACD (daily): Bearish cross occurred on the downswing; histogram remains negative though contraction is modest. No confirmed bullish divergence vs price. Bearish. • Stochastics: Hovering near the lower third with no decisive cross up. Bearish bias.

• Volatility and range • ATR-14 (daily, est.): Expanded materially post-gap to roughly 4.5–5.5. Today’s range 3.35 (93.25–89.90) sits within an elevated regime. Expect continued wide intraday swings with a downward skew. • Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~101, lower band around ~88–89. Price is hugging the lower band; tendency is either band-walk continuation or brief mean reversion toward ~92–94 before further downside. With trend down, continuation is favored. • Keltner Channels (est.): Price below lower KC, confirming trend strength; rallies toward the mid-channel likely get sold.

• Volume and market microstructure • Volume: Aug 14 distribution day at ~28.97M shares and Aug 13’s heavy turnover ~10.8M define a regime change with institutional supply overhead. Subsequent days lighter but still above the pre-gap norm, consistent with supply absorption rather than accumulation. • Anchored VWAP from the Aug 14 gap (anchored at 91.1 open or 86.5 low) likely sits 92–93 depending on anchor point. Price trading below anchored VWAPs implies sellers maintain control; intraday pops toward 91.5–92.5 have been rejected. • Intraday 8-18: Lower-high sequence, repeated failure near 90.9–91.7, buyers unable to reclaim VWAP late day. Bearish close relative to session VWAP.

• Support and resistance mapping • Immediate resistance: 90.90–91.70 (today’s VWAP/failed bounces), 93.40 (Aug 15 close), 94.5–96.0 (gap supply shelf), 98–101 (pre-gap congestion and MAs). • Supports: 90.00 psychological and intraday shelf, 89.90 intraday low, 89.18 (Classic S1 from today), 88.0–88.9 minor shelf, 87.86 (S2), 86.50 gap day low. Below 86.5, air pockets toward 83–81 (June pivots) and 80.

• Classic pivot levels from 8-18 session • H = 93.25, L = 89.90, C = 90.49 • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 91.21 • R1 ≈ 92.53, R2 ≈ 94.56 • S1 ≈ 89.18, S2 ≈ 87.86 Observation: Price closed below P; shorting near P with targets toward S1/S2 aligns with bearish posture.

• Pattern recognition • Breakaway gap down on Aug 14 with massive volume forms a persistent supply overhang; gap remains largely unfilled. • Post-gap bear flag: Two-day drift to 93.4 followed by rollover today suggests flag breakdown is underway. • No credible reversal candlestick on the daily (no hammer with confirmation, no morning star). Bias remains down.

• Fibonacci context • Using swing June 25 low 85.63 to Aug 12 high 118: key retracements are 38.2% ~105.8, 50% ~101.8, 61.8% ~97.8, 78.6% ~91.5. Price broke below 78.6% today, which statistically increases odds of a round-trip toward the origin of the move, i.e., mid-80s. That puts 86.5 as a reasonable magnet.

• Elliott wave lens (heuristic) • The impulsive advance into Aug 12 resembles a completed five-wave structure. The gap down appears as Wave A, the 93.4 bounce a shallow Wave B, and present move could be Wave C targeting 86–87 before a more durable reaction.

• Mean reversion vs trend • Z-score vs 20D MA is roughly -1.7 to -2.0; while mean reversion risk exists, the dominant factor is overhead supply and negative momentum. Shorting rallies near pivot offers better expectancy than bottom-ticking.

• 24-hour outlook and probabilities (qualitative) • Base case 55%: Test and slip below 90, probing 89.2 (S1) with an extension toward 88.6–88.9. • Bear extension 25%: Momentum break triggers 87.9–87.8 (S2) and possibly a quick sweep of 87.3–86.6 liquidity. • Squeeze 20%: Pop to 91.2–92.5 (P to R1) on dip-buyer attempts; deeper squeeze to 93.2–93.7 is possible but likely sold.

• Risk management and trade construction • Thesis: Use strength to sell into pivot resistance; target the next support shelf as bear flag resolves. • Entry zone: 91.1–91.4 aligns with daily pivot and intraday rejection area; offers defined risk against 93.1–93.3. • Stop discipline: Hard stop suggested above 93.20–93.50 to avoid a squeeze toward 94.5–96 gap supply. • Targets: Primary 88.9 (between S1 and S2), stretch 87.8 (near S2), ultimate retest 86.6–86.5 if momentum accelerates. • Reward to risk from 91.2 entry: to 88.9 ≈ 2.3 vs risk ~2.0 (to 93.2) → ~1.15:1; to 87.8 ≈ 3.4 vs 2.0 → ~1.7:1. Because the trend is down, odds-weighted expectancy is acceptable if partial profits are taken at 88.9 and runners aim for 87.8.

• Confluence checklist • Below 10D and 20D MAs, under anchored VWAP, under daily pivot. • Bear flag break plus unfilled breakaway gap suggests continuation. • Fibonacci 78.6% breach favors a move toward the mid- to high-80s. • Elevated ATR supports the feasibility of a 1.5–3.0 dollar downside move in 24 hours.

Conclusion and decision

• Bias for next 24 hours: Down to sideways with downside skew; expect tests of 89.2 then 88.6–88.9, with risk of 87.8 on momentum.
• Trade stance: Sell on strength into 91.2 pivot with tight risk above 93.2. Take partials 89.2–88.9; hold remainder for 87.8 if tape accelerates.
• Note: This is a short-term trading plan, not investment advice. Liquidity gaps and headline risk remain elevated after last week’s shock move.