ALTS: From Capitulation to Accumulation — 50% Fib in Sight, Eyeing 7.6 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish with a buy-the-dip preference; expect a test of 7.23 (50% Fib) and a probe into 7.35–7.55 if volume persists. Base case path: early pullback to 7.02–7.10, then grind/hop to 7.35–7.55. Bear case if 6.80 fails.
• Decision: Buy (long) on a controlled pullback toward VWAP/pivot; secondary breakout trigger above 7.25 if pullback does not occur.
• Open (plan): Buy limit ~7.06 (near intraday VWAP/pivot). Protective stop (not part of output fields): 6.68. Take-profit: 7.62 (near R2 / 61.8% Fib cluster).

1. Market regime and context

• Regime shift: Massive volume/volatility shock Aug 11–15 (57.96M on Aug 11; 29.47M on Aug 12), followed by a capitulation low and rebuilding of structure. Since Aug 19 (5.48 low), ALTS has printed higher lows and higher highs, transitioning from distribution to accumulation.
• Current state: Price 7.15 into the close with intraday highs around 7.23; buyers absorbed dips to 6.71–6.80 and reclaimed the 6.81 Fib (38.2%) and 6.80 daily close from Aug 25.

2. Trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Up from 5.48 (Aug 19) → 6.57 (Aug 22) → 6.80 (Aug 25) → 7.23 intraday today. Structure: higher highs/higher lows. Short-term uptrend is intact.
• Weekly context: After the May/June run toward 10–11, the Jul–early Aug downtrend culminated in an Aug capitulation. Current action appears as a reflexive retracement of the Aug downswing, with price now confronting mid-retracement resistance bands.
• Regression channel (last 7 sessions): Positive slope ~ +0.20/day; price oscillating in upper half, indicating persistent dip-buying.

3. Key levels: Support/resistance map

• Fibonacci (swing Aug 8 high 8.97 → Aug 19 low 5.48; range = 3.49):
  • 38.2%: 6.81 (reclaimed; now support)
  • 50%: 7.23 (active resistance tested today)
  • 61.8%: 7.64 (next major resistance/target)
• Classical pivots (using today’s H/L/C ≈ 7.23/6.71/7.15):
  • Pivot P ≈ 7.03
  • S1 ≈ 6.83; S2 ≈ 6.51
  • R1 ≈ 7.35; R2 ≈ 7.55
• Horizontal supply/demand from recent structure:
  • Supports: 6.71–6.83 (intraday S1 and today’s low), 6.57 (Aug 22 close breakout), 6.23 (Jul 31 close), 5.94–5.96 (Aug 12/15 closes)
  • Resistances: 7.23 (50% Fib), 7.33–7.44 (Aug 25 high and today’s premarket high), 7.64–7.70 (61.8% Fib/upper band), 7.88–8.20 (gap/supply band from early Aug)

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~58–62, rising from sub-40 post-capitulation; not overbought, supports further upside.
• Stochastic %K (daily, est.): High 70s; in bullish territory, not yet a clear sell signal—can remain elevated in trends.
• MACD (12,26,9): Histogram turned positive; signal cross likely just occurred or imminent. Momentum improving, consistent with higher lows.
• MFI (Money Flow Index): Mid-60s, confirming price/volume-backed inflows since 5.48 bottom.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.60–0.70; current H-L today ~0.52 suggests volatility moderating vs. Aug shock but still elevated.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Mid-band ~6.9; upper band ~7.7; price riding mid-to-upper band. Room to 7.6–7.7 before band pressure intensifies.

6. Volume/flow diagnostics

• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution: Rising since Aug 19; pullbacks are occurring on lighter volume vs. pushes higher on stronger volume—constructive.
• Participation: Today’s volume (>10M) remains well above pre-shock norms, indicating interest and liquidity for continuation attempts.
• VWAP (intraday estimate): ~7.02–7.05; the market repeatedly reverted toward this area and bounced, marking it as fair value and dip-buy zone.

7. Pattern recognition

• Double-bottom/Adam-Eve variant around 5.48–5.52 (Aug 19/21), followed by neckline reclaim above 6.57 (Aug 22). Measured move from neckline (6.57) by depth (~1.05) targets ~7.62—aligns with our TP cluster.
• Ascending channel since Aug 19 with rising demand along 6.8–7.0; supply shows up near 7.23–7.44. A channel extension to the top targets ~7.55–7.65 in the next session if momentum persists.
• Gap mechanics: Multiple Aug gaps above; the 7.60–7.88 pocket is a vacuum/supply transition area that often gets probed once 50% retrace is reclaimed.

8. Ichimoku lens (approximate)

• Tenkan (9): ~6.40; Kijun (26): ~7.44; price (~7.15) > Tenkan but < Kijun. Signal: short-term bullish, medium-term resistance ahead at 7.4–7.5.
• Cloud: Likely overhead and flattening around 7.4–7.8; flat Kijun/Span B often magnetizes price—supports a 7.4–7.6 test before a larger decision.

9. Quant/levels fusion and confluence

• Bullish confluence at 7.55–7.64: R2 (7.55), Fib 61.8% (7.64), measured move (7.62), Bollinger upper band vicinity. High-probability supply test zone—ideal for profit taking within 24h horizon.
• Support confluence at 7.00–7.06: VWAP/Pivot P (7.03), round number psych level, intraday bids observed; optimal pullback entry.
• Secondary defense: 6.80–6.83 (S1 and intraday low cluster). A decisive break below undermines the immediate-long setup.

10. Intraday microstructure (Aug 26)

• Buyers defended 6.76–6.80 twice and regained 7.10–7.18. Offers stacked near 7.20–7.25 capped price. Late session held 7.14–7.18, suggesting acceptance above 7.10.
• Liquidity pockets: 7.00 (bid stack), 7.20–7.25 (offer stack). Expect ping-pong early tomorrow around these nodes before trend extension.

11. Scenarios for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Early dip to 7.02–7.10 gets bought → reclaim 7.23 (50% Fib) → extension to 7.35 (R1) → probe 7.55–7.62 (R2/Fib 61.8). Close in 7.40–7.55 range.
• Bullish extension (20–25%): Strong open above 7.25 with heavy tape → trend day to 7.62–7.70; tail risk test of 7.88 if momentum/market beta tailwinds.
• Bear case (20–25%): Break of 7.00 fails to hold 6.83 (S1) → trap long liquidation to 6.68–6.51 (S2). Would re-evaluate long bias if 6.80 fails on volume.

12. Risk management and trade framing (24h swing/day-hold)

• Entry: Buy 7.06 (limit) at/near VWAP-Pivot.
• Stop (discretionary; not part of output fields): 6.68 (below intraday structure and undercut of 6.71 low to avoid a simple stop run). Risk ≈ 0.38.
• Target: 7.62 (confluence of R2/Fib/measure). Reward ≈ 0.56. R:R ≈ 1.47:1. Improves to >1.8:1 if partials taken 7.35 and trail remainder.
• Contingency: If entry not filled and price breaks 7.25 with volume, a breakout buy-stop adds momentum confirmation; then target 7.55–7.64.

13. Additional techniques cross-check

• Moving averages: 5- and 10-day SMAs (~6.39 and ~6.36) < price; 20-day SMA likely ~6.9; price above all three—bullish stacking beginning. A rising 5>10>20 configuration is constructive.
• VWAP anchored from Aug 19 low: Price above the AVWAP from the bottom, indicating bulls in control since the pivot low.
• Elliott-wave sketch: Post-bottom wave i to ~6.57, wave ii shallow pullback, wave iii in progress aiming 7.6 area; fits with momentum improvement.
• Gann 1/8th increments from 5.48: 6.90 and 7.35 align as control/resistance—coincides with mid-band and R1; again supports our map.

Conclusion

• Evidence across price, volume, momentum, and level confluence favors a controlled long for a 24-hour push into 7.55–7.65. The trade is invalidated on a firm break below 6.80. Take profits into the 7.6 cluster where multiple tools say “supply likely.”