XRP’s 2.85 Floor Snaps: Sell the Throwback, Aim for 2.67

Executive summary

• Direction: Bearish continuation over the next 24 hours, with high probability of a “throwback” retest toward 2.84–2.86 followed by another leg lower toward 2.67–2.70.
• Plan: Sell the retest into broken support (now resistance) near 2.845 for best risk/reward; target 2.67. If no retest, momentum continuation toward 2.72–2.70 is still likely, but the optimal entry remains on a bounce.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure Daily (June → Aug):

• Strong July uptrend peaked mid/late July (intraday highs ~3.65), followed by a progressive August distribution and lower-high sequence. The market has transitioned to a clear daily downtrend: lower highs (Aug 14 ~3.346; Aug 22 ~3.098; Aug 26 ~3.073) and lower lows (Aug 19 ~2.853; Aug 29 ~2.791 new low). Structure is decisively bearish.
• Today’s daily candle (so far) is a wide-range, near-marubozu down bar, closing on/near lows (open ~2.97, last ~2.79), with heavier-than-average volume. That is classic bearish continuation / trend day behavior.
• Key level flip: 2.85–2.90 acted as a multi-session floor (Aug 19–28). It broke today and is now immediate resistance. Expect a throwback retest that gets sold.

Hourly (Aug 28–29):

• Persistent intraday lower highs/lower lows; a sequence of lower lows: 2.919 → 2.871 → 2.855 → 2.823 → 2.808 → 2.791. Sellers have control across sessions.
• Several hours hugging or riding the lower Bollinger/Donchian band, typical of trend days. Minor mean reversion bounces have been shallow and sold.
• Intraday volume heavier on down legs versus up legs; VWAP likely above price (~2.86–2.88). A retest of VWAP/POC should be faded.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 7-day SMA ≈ 2.953. Price 2.791 is well below: short-term trend firmly down.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 3.035. Price below 20SMA and pointing lower: medium-term bearish bias.
• 50-day SMA (estimate high-2.8s/low-3.0s) is above price; slope has flattened/turning down: longer swing bias now bearish.
• EMA stack (9 < 21 < 50 on daily) would align bearishly given August’s slide; price trades below all key EMAs. Trend filters agree: down.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 37–38 post close at 2.791 (computed from last 14 daily closes). That’s bearish momentum, not deeply oversold yet. There’s room to extend down before a momentum floor (~30) demands a stronger bounce.
• Hourly RSI has spent time sub-30 during the trend move, consistent with intraday downside pressure. Expect brief intraday oversold bounces, but daily momentum can still push lower lows.
• MACD (daily) is below zero with a widening negative histogram after failing to reclaim the signal line on the Aug 26 bounce. Fresh negative momentum impulse supports continuation.
• Stochastics (daily) likely sub-50 and curling down; on hourly, oscillating in oversold territory with weak recoveries—signals align with sell-the-bounce.

4. Volatility and bands

• 20-day Bollinger Bands: mid-band ≈ 3.035; current price trades near the lower band region (estimated lower band ~2.73–2.76, depending on SD). Price proximity to the lower band supports the trend but allows for a small snapback to the mid of the day’s range (2.83–2.86) before continuation.
• ATR(14) daily estimated ~0.18–0.22. Today’s range (~0.18) fits; a 24-hour move from 2.84 entry to 2.67 target (~0.17) is statistically plausible within one ATR.

5. Volume analytics

• Daily volume today is elevated relative to many recent sessions, adding conviction to the breakdown below 2.85. Distribution days earlier in August foreshadowed this.
• Intraday, selling waves carry more volume than buying waves; VWAP above price. Use VWAP/previous support (2.84–2.86) as a tactical short entry zone.
• OBV (qualitative) slopes down across August; no evidence of accumulation at these levels.

6. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: 2.84–2.86 (broken shelf, VWAP retest zone).
• Secondary resistance: 2.90–2.92 (hourly supply, minor shelf), then 3.00–3.05 (psychological + 20SMA), and 3.12–3.15 (late-Aug pivot).
• Immediate support: 2.78–2.80 (today’s low area); then 2.72–2.70; and a more strategic confluence at 2.64–2.66 (61.8% retrace off the June→July impulse; see below).

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Major swing: June 22 low ~2.014 to July 21 high ~3.650. Key retracements:
  • 38.2% ≈ 3.025 (recent mid-band cluster) — failed.
  • 50% ≈ 2.832 — broken today.
  • 61.8% ≈ 2.639 — next magnet level if selling persists. This aligns with our 24–48h downside targets.
• A–B–C projection (Aug corrective wave):
  • A: 3.30 (Aug 12) → 2.85 (Aug 19) = −0.45
  • B: 2.85 → 3.07 (Aug 26) retrace
  • C = B − A magnitude projects ≈ 3.07 − 0.45 = 2.62 (full A equality). The 0.618 extension (~2.80) has just been tagged. Full equality (~2.62) is a stretch for 24h but a viable 2–5 day target if momentum persists. Near-term, 2.70 then 2.64 are natural steps.

8. Ichimoku and trend systems

• Daily Ichimoku: price below Tenkan and Kijun; future cloud (Senkou) above price. Bearish regime, no bullish signals; rallies into Tenkan/Kijun are typically sold in such regimes.
• Parabolic SAR (daily) would be above price, indicating short bias.
• Donchian 20-day lower band was ~2.85; today’s break to 2.79 is a fresh downside breakout—systematic trend strategies will sell/hold shorts until a reversal signal triggers.

9. Regression channel and market profile context

• A simple linear regression over Aug 10–29 shows a downward slope; price currently below the median line, oscillating near the lower channel—consistent with continuation after small mean reversion.
• Intraday market profile suggests a likely Point of Control (POC) around 2.84–2.85 given volume clustering during the early US session. Expect responsive sellers if price revisits that zone.

10. Risk, scenarios, and timing

• Base case (≈60%): Throwback to 2.84–2.86 fails; price rotates down to 2.70–2.67 within 24h.
• Secondary (≈30%): Shallow bounce stalls earlier, around 2.82–2.84, then down. If no bounce, trend continuation can still push to 2.72–2.70; however, the best RR remains selling a pop.
• Low-probability squeeze (≈10%): Reclaim and hold above 2.90–2.92 and then 3.00; that would neutralize the immediate short and open a path to 3.05–3.12. That’s our tactical invalidation region.

11. Entry, exit, and risk parameters

• Optimal entry: Sell limit on a throwback into 2.845 (broken support/VWAP zone), aligning with intraday mean reversion and prior shelf. This refines timing and improves RR versus shorting the hole at 2.79.
• Take-profit: 2.670, just above the 2.64–2.66 confluence and within 1×ATR from the planned entry. Captures the next logical liquidity pocket while respecting 24h statistics.
• Suggested stop (not required but prudent): 2.915–2.920 (above micro-structure and minor supply). That yields roughly 0.07–0.08 risk for ~0.175 reward (RR ≈ 2.2–2.5), consistent with trend-following best practices.

12. Confluence checklist

• Bearish structure: lower highs/lows (daily/hourly) — YES.
• MA/EMA alignment bearish — YES.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD) bearish — YES.
• Volatility regime supportive (ATR, band rides) — YES.
• Volume confirmation on breakdown — YES.
• Key level flip (2.85 support → resistance) — YES.
• Fib confluence pointing to 2.64–2.67 area — YES.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• The balance of evidence favors a short. Expect a modest relief bounce into 2.84–2.86 that should be sold, targeting a continuation toward 2.67 within the next day. If the market instead reclaims 2.90+ and holds, the short thesis weakens; below that, sellers remain in control.