Solana Coils Under the Pivot: Short the 134 Rejection for a Run to 128.9

Executive summary

• Thesis (24h): Bias is bearish-to-sideways. Expect a range expansion lower if 132.0–132.2 gives way, targeting 129.5–128.7 first, with a stretch toward 126.7 if momentum accelerates. Low-probability squeeze toward 135.8–137.0 before sellers reassert.
• Trade idea: Sell a pop into the 134.0–134.4 pivot zone (classic daily pivot from 12/12), targeting 128.9 within 24h. If entry doesn’t fill, a momentum add-on/alternative is a break-and-hold below 132.0.

Market structure and trend

• Higher-timeframe context (daily): Since mid‑September, SOL has transitioned from ~250 to the low‑130s, forming a persistent series of lower highs/lows. Notable inflection points: Oct 10 capitulation; multiple failed rebounds in late Oct/early Nov; fresh down‑leg in mid‑Nov; early‑Dec bounce to 144.9 was sold. Current price sits below key daily moving averages and within a well-defined descending channel. Structure favors selling rallies until the sequence of lower highs is broken.
• Support/resistance map:
  • Resistance: 134.0–134.4 (daily pivot P=134.33), 136.3–136.7 (20D SMA/BB mid and 38.2% fib retrace area), 137.9–139.0 (recent closes/supply shelf), 143.6–145.0 (R2/early-Dec high).
  • Support: 132.2 (intraday floor), 131.9–132.0 (micro shelf), 130.9 (61.8% fib of 122.27→144.90), 129.4 (12/11 intraday low), 128.7 (classic S1 from 12/12), 126.7 (12/1 swing low), 122.3 (11/21 cycle low).
• Patterning: Daily prints since the 12/3 high resemble a descending triangle/flag: flat-ish base around 131–132 with progressively lower swing highs (145 → 140 → 137). This is a continuation-bearish setup; breakdowns from such structures often accelerate through the base (131–130) toward prior liquidity (128.7, 126.7).

Momentum, oscillators, and volatility

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 49 (computed from the last 14 closes). Interpretation: neutral-to-soft bearish—room in either direction, but not oversold; momentum recovery attempts have been tepid.
• MACD daily: Likely below zero and flattening after early‑Dec bounce faded; histogram mildly negative. This aligns with a trend-down/weak momentum regime.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): SMA ≈ 136.2; estimated 2σ bands ~127.2–145.2. Price (~132.4) sits below the midband, closer to the lower band—moderate downside room remains before becoming statistically stretched.
• ATR(14) daily: Estimated ~8–9. Implication: one‑day typical range can encompass 6–10 points; a 24h move from 132.4 to the high‑120s is feasible without becoming extreme.

Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20D SMA ≈ 136.2: Price is ~2.8% below—bearish bias.
• 50D SMA (approximate) well above spot (mid‑150s). The distance below the 50D confirms a dominant downtrend; rallies into the 20D/50D bands are supply zones.
• Z‑score vs 20D: (132.4–136.2)/~4.5 ≈ −0.85. Not deeply oversold; no strong mean‑reversion impulse upward.

Fibonacci and pivots

• Fib retrace of 11/21 low (122.27) → 12/3 high (144.90):
  • 38.2%: ~136.25; 50%: ~133.59; 61.8%: ~130.90. Price is oscillating between the 50% and 61.8% levels; a decisive loss of 130.9 opens a path to 128.7/126.7.
• Classic daily pivots from 12/12 (H/L/C = 139.99/130.68/132.32):
  • P = 134.33; R1 = 137.98; R2 = 143.64; S1 = 128.67; S2 = 125.02. Trading below P tilts intraday bias bearish; S1 aligns with our profit objective.

Volume/flow and microstructure

• Volume profile (qualitative from recent days): Heavier activity around 133–136 (value area), thinner below ~131—suggesting air pockets toward the high‑120s if 131 breaks.
• 1h chart (last 24h): Tight coil 132.2–134.2 with a failed push above 134.2 and repeated tests of 132.2; late‑hour volume uptick without follow‑through higher. This is a volatility compression setup where breakdown risk outweighs breakout odds given the higher‑timeframe trend.
• Weekend liquidity: Crypto weekend hours often see stop‑hunt wicks, but thin books can also accelerate directional moves once key levels give way. Expect faster tape if 132→131 cracks.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan (~9‑period mean near 136) and Kijun (~26‑period mean near high‑130s). Cloud overhead (140–145) acts as supply. Chikou span likely below price and cloud—bearish regime intact.

Confluence summary

• Bearish factors: Downtrend intact (below 20D/50D), trading under daily pivot, descending triangle at base, RSI sub‑50, MACD negative, value area overhead (133–136), thin liquidity below 131, S1/S2 targets align with fib supports.
• Bullish risks: 61.8% fib (130.9) may produce a reflex bounce; hourly compression can break either way; weekend squeezes can tag 135.8–137 before sellers return.

24-hour path expectation (probabilistic)

• Base case (≈55%): Early pop stalls at 134.0–134.4 → roll over → 132 break → 130.9 tag → partial bounce → settle 129.0–131.0.
• Squeeze case (≈25–30%): Quick stop-run to 135.8–137.0 (R1 proximity/BB mid) → re‑offer → closes back sub‑134.
• Deep extension (≈15–20%): Momentum continuation through 130.9 → 128.7 (S1) → overshoot toward 126.7 if liquidity thins.

Execution plan and risk

• Entry: Prefer limit sell at 134.3 (daily pivot retest) for best R: Multiple rejection risks converge here (pivot, 50% fib at 133.6 just below, VA highs). Alternate: momentum sell on 131.95 break if no bounce.
• Target (24h): 128.9 (just above S1 128.67 to improve fill odds, aligned with volume node/first downside magnet).
• Risk management (suggested, not part of order output): Initial stop 135.6–136.0 (above intraday supply and Tenkan/BB mid). That yields roughly 1:3 RR from a 134.3 entry to 128.9 target.

What invalidates

• Strong acceptance above 136.5 (hourly closes holding above 136.7 with rising volume) would negate the immediate short bias and shift focus to 137.9–139.0 and potentially 143.6–145.0.

Bottom line

• With trend, pivots, fibs, and compression dynamics aligning, selling a bounce into 134.0–134.4 targeting 128.9 over the next day offers the best expectancy. A breakdown entry below 132.0 is an acceptable backup if the market doesn’t offer the pivot retest.