PNUT Backtest Bounce Setup: Buying the 50–61.8% Fib for a Push Toward 9.5¢

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis for PNUT (last price: $0.0884068)

1. Market regime and context

• Structural trend (Daily): Since the Oct 10 breakdown, PNUT has been in a primary downtrend. From Nov 21 to Dec 5 it carved out a basing zone around $0.081–$0.084, then rallied to $0.0956 on Dec 9. Today’s pullback returns price to a key retracement area. Regime: bear-to-range transition with early signs of bottoming.
• Multi-timeframe alignment: Daily trend = improving but still below higher-timeframe resistance; Hourly = short-term pullback within a shallow higher-low structure since Dec 1–5.

2. Price action and market structure

• Higher-low candidate: Dec 1 low $0.08122 and Dec 5 low $0.08139 form a double-bottom base. The Dec 9 high at $0.09565 set a higher high vs the Nov 28 high ($0.1034 was higher, but within the last 2 weeks $0.0956 is the swing high). Today’s low $0.08701 is above the 61.8% retrace (see below), preserving a potential higher low if $0.0866-0.0870 holds.
• Intraday structure (1h): Session ranged $0.0870–$0.0927 with an early selloff, mid-session bounce to $0.0901–$0.0925, and late-day fade to $0.0884. Net: balanced-to-slightly-bearish profile but sitting on support.

3. Key support and resistance (confluence)

• Supports: S3 $0.0812–0.0814 (double bottom zone), S2 $0.0850–0.0860 (prior reaction lows/pivot S1/S2 band), S1 $0.0866–0.0872 (61.8% Fib and today’s intraday low cluster $0.0870).
• Resistances: R1 $0.0908–$0.0912 (hourly congestion and classic pivot R1), R2 $0.0927–$0.0956 (Dec 9 high zone; upper Bollinger vicinity), R3 $0.100–$0.1034 (late-Nov supply shelf).
• Classic daily pivot levels (using H=0.092725, L=0.087010, C=0.088407): • Pivot P ≈ 0.08938 • R1 ≈ 0.09175, S1 ≈ 0.08604 • R2 ≈ 0.09510, S2 ≈ 0.08367

4. Fibonacci mapping (swing Dec 1 low to Dec 9 high)

• Swing low: $0.0812; Swing high: $0.0956; Range: $0.0144
• 38.2%: ≈ $0.0902; 50%: ≈ $0.0884; 61.8%: ≈ $0.0866
• Current price ($0.08841) is sitting precisely at the 50% retracement; the high-odds buy zone is $0.0866–$0.0884 (50–61.8%). A reliable bounce area if the bottoming thesis is intact.

5. Moving averages (Daily)

• 20SMA ≈ $0.0875 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price is marginally above, a mild bullish tell.
• 50SMA likely in the low $0.11s (dragged higher by October/early November prices), well above price, so the medium-term trend is still down.
• MA posture: Short-term improving, medium-term bearish. A common bottoming configuration.

6. Momentum suite

• RSI(14) Daily: Neutral to slightly positive (estimated high-40s to low-50s). After the double bottom, RSI stopped making lower lows—bullish momentum inflection. Not overbought; room to run.
• RSI(14) 1h: Mid-40s; intraday pullback losing downside momentum into support—favorable for a bounce attempt.
• MACD (12,26,9) Daily: Histogram recently turned positive during the move to $0.0956, likely fading today but still near a potential bullish cross zone. If price holds above $0.0866, MACD can re-expand upwards.
• Stochastics (Daily): Likely cycling down from overbought into mid-zone; in ranges this often resets for another push.
• CCI/MFI (qualitative): Neither shows strong distribution; dip buy conditions are plausible given neutral money flow and absence of blow-off.

7. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily: ≈ $0.006–$0.007. With spot ≈ $0.088, a typical 24h envelope is $0.082–$0.095.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~ $0.0875; upper ~ $0.095–$0.096; lower ~ $0.079–$0.080. Price is near the midline, with room to test the upper band if bids return.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): Price sits near centerline; not a volatility expansion. A pop to the upper KC is feasible on modest demand.
• Donchian (20): High ≈ $0.1034, low ≈ $0.0812, mid ≈ $0.0923; price below mid but above lower band—range posture with upward tilt if midline is reclaimed.

8. Volume, OBV, and Wyckoff read

• Volume: Rising participation on the upswing to $0.0956 (Dec 7–9) versus prior days suggests constructive demand. Today’s fade had modest-to-mixed 1h volumes; no capitulatory selling near the lows.
• OBV (qualitative): Off the Dec 1 low, OBV trend bias is mildly up; today’s pullback doesn’t negate that.
• Wyckoff lens: Prolonged markdown → accumulation base ($0.081–$0.084) → sign of strength to $0.0956 → “backing up to the creek” into $0.0866–$0.0884. This is textbook BU/LPS behavior if support holds.

9. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price remains below the Kumo (primary trend bearish). Tenkan likely near $0.089–$0.090, Kijun near ~$0.091. Price just below/around Tenkan and below Kijun—neutral-bearish on pure Ichimoku, but supportive bounces occur when price tests Tenkan after a small rally.

10. ADX/Trend strength and SAR

• ADX (qualitative): Likely sub-20 → range-bound conditions; signals favor mean-reversion and buying support.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely just below price after the early-week rally; if so, it supports a near-term long bias; if it flipped above on the pullback, a recapture tomorrow would be a tactical long trigger. Either way, risk is defined just under $0.0866.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Double bottom at $0.0812/0.0814 with a neckline region in the $0.092–$0.095 area. Today’s pullback is a common retest before another attempt higher. No bearish reversal pattern at the daily level is confirmed while $0.0866 holds.

12. Statistical expectation for next 24 hours

• Baseline envelope (ATR): $0.082–$0.095. Given confluence support and neutral momentum, bias skews to the top half.
• Scenario odds (subjective): • Bounce to $0.091–$0.0927: ~60% • Range chop $0.0866–$0.0905: ~25% • Breakdown through $0.0866 toward $0.0850/$0.0837: ~15%

13. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Edge: Confluence of 50–61.8% Fib, 20SMA underfoot, ATR-consistent upside to R1/R2, and Wyckoff “backing up” context. Risk is well-defined beneath $0.0866 with upside to $0.0927–$0.0951.
• Optimal entry: Buy-the-dip limit in the $0.0868–$0.0873 pocket to capture the 61.8%/intraday low cluster; this yields favorable R:R. If no fill, an alternate momentum entry is above $0.0918 with a tighter target to $0.0950.
• Take-profit planning: Primary TP near $0.0946 (front-run R2/upper band and the Dec 9 high zone at $0.0956). Secondary extension (if momentum accelerates) could be $0.0950–$0.0956.
• Risk note (not part of the requested fields): A protective stop would logically sit at $0.0855–$0.0860 (below 61.8% and S1), implying ~1.5–2.0 ATR upside potential vs ~0.0015–0.0018 risk from the proposed entry.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• With price resting on the 50% retracement and just above the 20SMA, and with recent demand evidence off the $0.081 base, the path of least resistance in the next 24 hours is a rebound toward $0.091–$0.093+, provided $0.0866–$0.0870 holds. This favors a tactical Buy-the-dip setup with a TP in front of $0.095.