Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT): Compression Before Breakout – Bulls Poised for Upside Surge

Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) – July 3, 2025

1. Overview and Price Context

• Current Price: $0.24109
• Market Structure: PNUT has experienced highly volatile swings over the past three months, with a blow-off top in May followed by gradual corrective moves and renewed volume surges in late June and early July.

2. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend (Swing Perspective):

  • There was a parabolic run early-to-mid May (high above $0.48) followed by a sharp retracement to the $0.20-$0.23 area in June, indicating the asset moved from a strong bull phase into a period of profit-taking and re-accumulation.
  • Since major support formed at $0.20, PNUT has been making a series of higher lows (June 23: $0.192, Jun 26: $0.193, Jun 28: $0.200, Jul 1: $0.209), suggesting accumulation and an attempt to carve a new uptrend.

• Short-Term Trend:

  • The most recent high on Jul 2 ($0.24891) and current price movement indicate some resistance overhead, but the higher lows are holding.
  • Over the last 48 hours, the market attempted to break above $0.248 but failed, leading to minor sell pressure and support testing at $0.232-$0.233.

3. Volume Analysis

• A surge in volume on June 29–Jul 2 coincides with price recovery from $0.213 to $0.241, a strong sign of accumulation. The latest daily bar shows relatively high volume (~237M), confirming renewed interest but also indicating supply is being met with demand at this zone.
• Intraday, substantial buying occurred on attempts to break $0.25, but supply above has capped each advance so far.

4. Volatility Assessment

• Recent volatility compressions (as seen in the hourly chart between $0.244–$0.247) are typical of market indecision before a break. Expect a volatile move once $0.248 is retested, with potential stops just above or below this level.

5. Key Technical Levels

• Support: $0.232, $0.225, $0.220
• Resistance: $0.245, $0.248, and the psychological level at $0.250

6. Candlestick/Price Action Patterns

• On Jul 2 and Jul 3, the attempted rallies toward $0.248 - $0.250 have produced upper wicks on hourly candles, suggesting persistent supply at that level.
• However, the base at $0.232–$0.233 is holding strongly and was quickly bought up multiple times, indicating genuine demand.
• There is no clear reversal (e.g., bearish engulfing). The price is coiling for a significant move.

7. Moving Averages

• 20-Hour EMA (estimated): $0.240 (flat)
• 50-Hour EMA: $0.238 (rising)
  • Price is above both MAs, signaling near-term bullish bias but with signs of indecision and some overhead supply.

8. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (14-period, hourly, est.): Near 54
  • Neutral but slightly bullish bias; no overbought condition.
• MACD (Hourly): Slightly above signal, suggesting weakly positive momentum. Histogram contracts, hinting at a potential for a breakout as the market compresses.

9. Chart Patterns and Structure

• Ascending Triangle: Forming on the intraday/hourly, with flat resistance at $0.248–$0.250 and rising support around $0.233. This is a bullish continuation pattern, often resolved to the upside after consolidation.
• False Breakouts: Multiple failed attempts above $0.248, but each retracement is met with aggressive buying. This sequence builds pressure for a significant breakout if sellers are exhausted.

10. Fibonacci Retracement

• Pullback from May's high to June's low: Currently trading between 38.2% ($0.231) and 50% ($0.246) retracement levels, a classic zone for continuation or reversal. The consolidation here makes this a critical decision area.

11. Order Flow & Market Microstructure

• The limit order book shows clear absorption of supply at $0.245–$0.248, suggesting larger players are capping rallies but also accumulating below $0.235–$0.240. Should bids persist, thin resistance above $0.250 could lead to a swift move to $0.260 or higher.

12. Sentiment & Market Positioning

• Sentiment remains cautiously bullish, especially given persistent recoveries after dips.
• Retail is likely waiting for a clean break above $0.250 for confirmation, which can trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) spike.

13. Elliott Wave Analysis (Microstructure)

• The move from $0.192 to $0.241 appears impulsive (Wave 1), followed by a sideways Wave 2. The next push above $0.248 could mark a Wave 3 (typically the longest/strongest), potentially to $0.26–$0.27.

14. Risk/Reward Assessment

• Upside: Breakout targets post-consolidation include $0.256 (minor), $0.266 (major, former support/resistance flip), and $0.273.
• Downside: Failure at $0.233 could trigger a fast flush to $0.225, possibly $0.220 in a sharp shakeout.
• Stop-Loss zone for longs: Below $0.232.

15. Synthesis and forward prediction (24h)

• The dominant pattern is an ascending triangle, with price compression, holding above MAs, and persistently higher lows.
• Volume and momentum suggest one more attempt at the $0.248–$0.250 zone is imminent; if this area breaks, price will likely surge toward $0.256–$0.266 within 24 hours.
• Given strong absorption of dips and technical structure, the statistical probability supports an upside breakout scenario.

16. Optimal Trade Plan

• Action: BUY on minor intraday weakness, ideally $0.240 - $0.241 ($0.24109 current price is suitable).
• Exit/Take Profit: $0.256 (first resistance cluster), can trail for higher (secondary: $0.266 if momentum is strong).
• Stop-Loss: Close below $0.232 (noted for trade management but not as exit in this summary).

Conclusion: The technicals strongly favor a breakout to the upside from current consolidation. Traders should prepare for a breakout or buy on small dips, with a 24-hour upside target at $0.256 and potential extension toward $0.266. Risk management is critical; monitor closely for false breakouts, but odds favor bulls in the current structure.