Fading the 61.8%: Shorting PENGU’s Rejection for a 24‑Hour Mean Reversion

Comprehensive multi-timeframe read on PENGU (spot):

1. Market regime and structure

• Higher-timeframe context (Daily): After the 10/10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.00763) the token has been in a broad downtrend, then established a base in late Nov around 0.0102–0.0108, followed by a mild relief rally topping near 0.01266–0.01270 on 12/09–12/02. Current price 0.011397 is below the mid-Nov swing cluster (0.014–0.016) and well below the larger breakdown zone (0.018–0.021). The dominant HTF trend is still down, while the last 2–3 weeks show a constructive, but fragile, basing/sideways-to-slightly-up regime.
• Intermediate-term structure (2–4 weeks): A sequence of higher lows since 11/21 (0.01050 → 12/05 0.01066 → 12/07 0.01097) with equal-to-lower highs capped beneath 0.0127 suggests a developing range with mild bullish bias but heavy overhead supply into 0.0120–0.0127.
• Short-term (last 24–48h): Hourly shows drift lower early 12/11 to ~0.01074, then a sharp rally to 0.01162 at 21:00, immediately faded to close the hour ~0.011395. That was a clean rejection at a nearby Fibonacci/supply band (~0.01158–0.01162), indicating sellers active at resistance.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.01118 (approx calc using last 20 closes). Price now modestly above the 20SMA → slight short-term bullish tilt.
• 50D SMA (approx, skewed high by Sept/Oct levels) remains well above spot, indicative of a persistent primary downtrend despite the recent bounce.
• 9/21 EMA posture (qualitative): The fast EMA recently curled down after the 12/09 pop; the slower EMA (20/21) flattish to slightly up. Short-term momentum is fading within a broader mean-reversion band.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 52–53 pre-today; including today’s fade it drifts toward ~50. Interpretation: neutral/slightly bullish, far from overbought/oversold.
• Stochastic: Likely rolling down from mid-high territory consistent with the intraday rejection, favoring a near-term pullback within range rather than immediate breakout.
• MACD (12/26/9): Recently crossed positive around the 12/02–12/09 run, but histogram has compressed and is curling lower, typical of a pause/pullback phase after a relief bounce.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Mid-band ≈ 0.01118; estimated upper ~0.0126, lower ~0.0098 (based on recent extremes). Price is hugging the middle of the bands, a classic indecision zone. A rejection from just above mid-band toward lower-mid suggests mean reversion is active.
• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.00085–0.00100 (7.5–9% of price). Expected 24h envelope: roughly 0.0105–0.0123 absent a catalyst. This supports a tactical range-trade bias rather than trend-chase.

5. Volume and flow

• Volume signature: The 10/10 crash was a volume climax. Since late Nov, volumes have normalized. Recent up days (12/02, 12/09) had constructive participation, but the 12/10 pullback and 12/11 hourly rejection at 0.0116 showed sellers stepping in at overhead supply.
• OBV (qualitative): Bottomed late Nov, recovered into 12/09, then flattened/softened on 12/10–12/11. This aligns with fading upside momentum near resistance.
• Volume profile/POC (last ~3 weeks): Heaviest rotation appears around 0.0112–0.0114, i.e., we are near the point of control “magnet.” This increases the likelihood of whipsaw near current price and makes entries at extremes (supports/resistances) more attractive.

6. Fibonacci and key levels

• Swing taken: 12/01 low 0.009761 to 12/02 high 0.012702.
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.010884
  • 50% ≈ 0.011232
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.011579
  • 78.6% ≈ 0.012079
• Current price sits between 50% and 61.8%. The 21:00 hour tagged ~0.011616 (just above 61.8%) and rejected. This strengthens 0.01158–0.01162 as a near-term supply shelf.
• Horizontal S/R map:
  • Resistance: 0.01158–0.01162 (Fibo/supply), 0.01195–0.01208 (BB mid→upper pocket/78.6%), 0.01224 (12/02 close pivot), 0.01266–0.01270 (recent swing highs), 0.01338 (12/09 intraday spike).
  • Support: 0.01123 (50% retrace/POC underside), 0.01108–0.01098 (hourly pivot cluster), 0.01076 (12/11 intraday base), 0.01050 (11/21 low), 0.00976 (12/01 capitulation pivot).

7. Ichimoku (approx/qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (9D high+low)/2 ≈ (0.01338 + 0.01055)/2 ≈ 0.01196; Kijun (26) ≈ around 0.0121. Price below both → near-term momentum is soft, with baseline resistance overhead. Cloud likely flat to slightly above price, implying overhead friction and range propensity.

8. Keltner Channels and mean reversion

• With EMA20 ≈ 0.0112 and ATR14 ~0.0009, typical KC upper ~0.0130, lower ~0.0093. Price is near center; without a catalyst, statistics favor oscillation around the mid rather than a one-directional push.

9. Pattern read and candle behavior

• Daily: 12/02 bullish expansion; 12/03–12/09 consolidation then push; 12/10 pullback candle; 12/11 intraday shows a large upper wick on the 21:00 hour → bearish rejection at resistance.
• Hourly: A developing range with lower highs intraday and a clear supply response at ~0.0116. Until that’s absorbed, upside attempts likely stall.

10. DMI/ADX (qualitative)

• ADX is likely low-to-moderate (range-bound conditions). +DI rolled over on the intraday frame while −DI ticked up post-rejection, favoring a short swing inside the range.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (45%): Mean-reversion drift lower from 0.0114 toward 0.0111–0.0110, probing 0.0109–0.0110 liquidity; close near 0.0111–0.01125.
• Bull case (30%): Another probe of 0.01158–0.01162; if absorbed, extension to 0.0119–0.0121 (78.6%). Break-and-hold above 0.0121 would target 0.01224; odds of a full 0.0126–0.0127 retest in 24h are lower without a catalyst.
• Bear case (25%): Range breaks lower on a liquidity sweep to 0.01076–0.01050, then reflex bounce. Sustained trade below 0.01076 would invite 0.01050 test.

12. Trade thesis and execution logic

• Thesis: The confluence of (a) 61.8% retrace resistance at ~0.01158–0.01162, (b) intraday rejection with elevated hour volume, (c) price below Tenkan/Kijun and a neutral RSI near 50, and (d) price magnetized to the 0.0112–0.0114 POC supports a short, mean-reversion setup: fade a bounce into 0.01158 with target back toward 0.0110–0.0110s.
• Entry: Use a limit sell in the 0.01158 supply zone to improve RR rather than chasing mid.
• Targeting: First target 0.01108–0.01098; a conservative take-profit at ~0.01092 aligns with the lower hourly pivot band while staying above the 0.01076 deeper support.
• Risk control (not part of requested outputs, but advised): Stop above 0.01175–0.01180 (close above the rejection wick and back inside the golden pocket top). That gives roughly 0.00017–0.00022 risk vs ~0.00066 reward → ~3–4:1 RR.

13. Ancillary checks

• Anchored VWAP (qualitative) from the 12/01 low tends to sit in the 0.0113–0.0115 corridor; price oscillating around it further argues for a sell-the-rip/buy-the-dip approach until a decisive break.
• No strong divergence: Momentum is not diverging bullishly on hourly after the 21:00 spike; if anything, it’s a slight bearish momentum divergence vs. price tagging the 61.8% band.

Bottom line

• Over the next 24 hours, probability-weighted path is a range with a slight bearish skew from current levels: a fade from 0.0114–0.0116 toward 0.0111–0.0110, with downside probes to ~0.0109 possible. Upside invalidation is a strong reclaim/hold above ~0.01175 closing basis on the hourly, which would open 0.01195–0.0121 and potentially 0.01224.

Actionable Plan

• Bias: Sell the bounce into the 0.01158 supply band.
• Open (limit): 0.01158
• Take profit (close): 0.01092
• Suggested (not required): Stop 0.01178. If filled and price accelerates down, consider partial at 0.01108 and trail remainder.