ORDI Technical Analysis: 2025-06-28

1. Long-Term Trend Assessment

Trendlines & Structure

Examining the 3-month daily chart, ORDI peaked sharply in mid-May 2025, hitting highs near $13.5 before a swift 3-phase drop. Since then, the sequence is: sharp fall (mid-May to late May); choppy sideways action between $8–$11 (early June); and a move towards a well-defined, persistent downtrend. Notably, since 2025-05-30, price structure is a sequence of successive lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish bias.

Volatility and Volume

• Volume: Volume spikes on down days (esp. May 30, June 13, June 22, June 23). This suggests strong liquidation on rallies, with buyers unable to absorb selling pressure. Recent sessions remain average-to-below average, signifying indecision or lack of strong conviction by either buyers or sellers.

• Volatility: Extreme high volatility in May. Since June, volatility contracted but remains elevated compared to the early April period. This indicates broad investor nervousness and lack of clear accumulation.

2. Classical Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• Short-term MAs (7, 14-day): Both tracking above current price until mid-June, then flattening and now bending further downwards, signaling bearish momentum is dominant.
• 50-day MA: High above current price (~$9.50–$10). Clearly confirms broad bear trend, with ORDI at a steep discount.
• Price relative to MA: After a brief bounce late June (6.57 ⇒ 7.46), price quickly failed to break higher and now drifts below the short-term MA cluster.

RSI Oscillator

• Daily RSI: At most recent close ($7.163), likely reading ~38–42. Unambiguously below the 50-neutral line, avoiding classic oversold (<30) region for now, suggesting more to fall but not yet panicked.
• Conclusion: Weak, in a bear trend, not yet exhausted to the downside.

MACD

• MACD line & Signal: MACD below zero, histogram red, signal line crossing under on 2025-06-23 confirms renewed momentum lower after failed bounce to $7.46.
• Interpretation: Supporting the short-term trend continuation to the downside.

Bollinger Bands

• Width: Bands moderately wide, with price hugging the lower band since June 23; not bouncing sharply, rather rolling along the band, typical in persistent downtrends.
• Conclusion: Weakness persists, no oversold mean reversion yet.

Stochastic Oscillator

• Reading: Dipped below 30, attempted to cross up on June 23–24, reversed and declined again—bearish.

3. Price Action and Chart Patterns

• Support/Resistance:
  • Immediate resistance: $7.47–$7.60 (June 23–24 failed rally/upper wick zone)
  • Nearest support: $7.00 (round psychological); then $6.55 (June 21 low)
  • Structural support: $6.20 (June 22 wick)
• Candle structure: Last few sessions are weak: small-bodied candles, unable to print even a shallow higher high, with multiple rejections from the $7.18–$7.22 area.
• Pattern: Descending triangle/continuation pennant. The series of lower highs and tight closes around $7.00 suggest ongoing distribution, not accumulation.

4. Advanced Technicals

Fibonacci Retracement

• March–May rally: Measuring $5.88 (Apr 6) low to $13.47 (May 14) high:
  • 61.8% retracement: $8.31
  • 78.6% retracement: ~$6.93
• Current price below the 78.6% fib—a bearish sign, indicating structural breakdown.

Volume Profile

• High-volume node: $10–$11 (May)
• Recent activity: Volume spikes on down candles, as noted, suggest further unwind, not accumulation.

5. Intraday & Immediate Trend (Hourly Data, Last 24–48 Hours)

• Hourly candles: Tight, small bodies, no strong up wicks. Volume is thin, suggesting absence of buyers at every minor pop.
• Failed bounce attempts: $7.17–$7.22 proven to be hard resistance. Most recent hourly closes float between $7.05–$7.16, further reinforcing the fact price is coiling for a potential breakdown.

Intraday Moving Averages (Hourly)

• 21 and 50 EMA: Both tracking slightly above current price (~$7.15), downward sloping—adding action pressure.

Order Flow & Momentum

• No clear buy wall just below market—if $7.00 is lost, expect acceleration lower to $6.70, then $6.55 and $6.20

6. Pattern Symmetries & Analogues

• Post-reversal analogues: Quick rallies in bear markets (like late April–mid May) often produce rounding tops and protracted declines. This pattern has not completed; structure remains vulnerable.
• Exhaustion gap: Not seen yet—capitulation lower (high volume, large range down candle) would mark a tradable low. This is not present.

7. Sentiment & Probabilistic Forecast (Next 24h)

• Short-term trend: Maintains a bearish bent.
• Probability distribution: 60–70% chance of a break below $7.00, with an initial target $6.70. Minor chance (~15%) of weak bounce to $7.40, immediately sold.

8. Synthesis: Multi-Tool, Multi-Layer Confirmation

• Tools converging to same view:
  • All classic and advanced indicators are aligned bearish (MA, RSI, MACD, Volume, Microstructure, Fib, S/R, Patterns)
  • Hourly action confirms sellers control, buyers are passive
• Risk: Only material risk would come from a sudden, significant market-wide bounce or reversal, not visible in structure now

Conclusion: Bias remains BEARISH. ORDI likely to break $7.00, move to $6.70 (possibly lower). No evidence yet of bottoming.

Trade Recommendation:

Open a SHORT position at current price ($7.16), add on any weak rally up to $7.22. Target lower support band at $6.70. Place a protective cover around $7.50 (above resistance zone).