OM (MANTRA) at a Post-Dump Range: Short the Rally Into 0.0517 Supply for a Likely Fade

Market context (multi-timeframe)

1) Higher timeframe structure (Daily)

• Trend: Clear downtrend since early Nov.
  • Peak/early distribution zone: ~0.10–0.106 (Nov 7–8 highs).
  • Subsequent sequence of lower highs and lower lows into late Jan.
• Major breakdown leg: Jan 13–20: price failed near ~0.0819 (Jan 13 high) then sold off sharply to ~0.0647 (Jan 20 close), confirming bearish market structure.
• Latest impulse down: Jan 29–31:
  • Jan 29 close ~0.05946 (big red)
  • Jan 30 close ~0.05689
  • Jan 31 low ~0.04770 and close ~0.05060 This is a capitulation-style move (long range, new local low), typically followed by a relief bounce—but within a broader bearish regime.

Key daily levels (from recent swings):

• Support: 0.0477 (Jan 31 low), then 0.0493–0.0500 (recent base area).
• Resistance (nearest): 0.0535–0.0540 (Feb 1 high ~0.0540).
• Resistance (next): 0.0569–0.0595 (Jan 30 close / Jan 29 close).
• Resistance (major): 0.0635–0.0676 (late Jan consolidation + breakdown area).

Daily read: price is below prior consolidation (0.063–0.067) and still in “sell-the-rally” conditions. Any bounce is technically a counter-trend rally until it reclaims at least ~0.059–0.063.

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2) Intermediate momentum (last ~10–15 daily bars)

• From Jan 21–28 price churned ~0.063–0.067 then broke down (Jan 29). This often converts that former range into overhead supply.
• The last 2 days (Feb 1–Feb 2) are small-bodied near ~0.050, indicating temporary equilibrium after the dump, not a confirmed reversal.

Implication: the path of least resistance remains down to sideways, unless buyers can push and hold above ~0.054.

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Intraday (Hourly) microstructure & order-flow clues

3) Hourly trend and ranges

Using the provided 1H candles (Feb 1 22:00 → Feb 2 21:57):

• Low: ~0.04847 (Feb 2 03:00)
• High: ~0.05170 (Feb 2 15:00)
• Current: 0.05093 So the session formed a range ~0.0485–0.0517 with price currently in the upper-middle of that range.

4) Intraday pattern recognition

• Early dip to ~0.0485 followed by steady recovery into the 0.0514–0.0517 area suggests a relief bounce.
• But the bounce failed to extend beyond 0.0517 and price reverted to ~0.0507–0.0511, indicating seller presence near 0.0515–0.0520.
• This looks like a range with a weak rally, not a clean trend reversal.

5) Volume/participation (intraday)

• Notable hourly volume spikes around:
  • ~06:00 (large spike) coinciding with rebound attempt.
  • ~21:00 (another spike) into a modest uptick.
• Spiky volume inside a range after a dump often indicates two-sided trade (short covering + opportunistic selling), not sustained accumulation.

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Indicator-based synthesis (what they would imply from this price behavior)

(Exact numeric indicator values aren’t computable perfectly without a full continuous intraday history beyond what’s provided, but the signals can be inferred from structure and closes.)

6) Moving averages / trend filters

• Daily price (~0.0509) is far below the November/early January trading region (~0.07–0.10). Any common daily MA (20/50) is likely above price and sloping down.
• On 1H, price spent much of the day below/around a short MA and only briefly pushed above; current is not in a strong trending alignment.

Implication: trend filters favor short bias on rallies.

7) RSI / momentum

• Daily momentum is likely recovering from oversold after Jan 31 dump.
• Hourly momentum: bounce from 0.0485 to 0.0517 is meaningful, but inability to hold highs hints RSI is cooling and may drift toward midline.

Implication: near-term could be choppy; rallies are prone to fade at resistance.

8) Volatility (ATR-style intuition)

• Recent daily ranges expanded sharply (Jan 31 especially), then compressed (Feb 1–2). This is classic volatility contraction after expansion.
• Post-contraction often resolves with a range break; in a dominant downtrend, breaks skew downward unless strong accumulation appears.

Implication: elevated risk of another push down toward 0.049–0.0485.

9) Support/Resistance & supply/demand

• Demand: 0.0485–0.0490 (intraday low area) + 0.0477 (major).
• Supply: 0.0514–0.0517 (intraday swing high area), then 0.0540 (daily high).

Given current price 0.05093, the nearest asymmetric trade is to short into supply (0.0514–0.0520) aiming back to demand.

10) Fibonacci (range-based)

Using the intraday swing low 0.04847 to high 0.05170:

• 50% retrace ≈ 0.05009
• 61.8% retrace ≈ 0.04970 Price holding above ~0.0501 most of the latter session suggests buyers defending midrange; however, failure near the high keeps the setup range-bound.

In a downtrend, fades near the top of the range are higher probability than buying the top.

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24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): Range-to-slightly-down

• Expect price to probe 0.0513–0.0517 again (liquidity sweep / retest of supply), then fade back toward 0.0500 → 0.0497, potentially 0.0490–0.0485 if risk-off pressure returns.

Bull case (lower probability): Break above supply

• If OM holds above 0.0517 and then clears 0.0540, it can squeeze toward 0.0569 (next daily resistance). This would likely require broader market strength.

Bear case (meaningful risk): Support failure

• Lose 0.0485 on momentum and the market likely revisits 0.0477, with a possibility of extension lower given the dominant daily downtrend.

Net: with current price sitting below resistance and within a broader downtrend, the higher expectancy is shorting rallies, not chasing longs.

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Trade plan (next 24h)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale:

• Dominant daily downtrend and overhead supply from the broken 0.063–0.067 range.
• Intraday bounce appears corrective and capped below 0.0517.
• Better reward/risk shorting into 0.0514–0.0520 supply targeting midrange support.

Optimal open (entry)

• Prefer a limit short at 0.05155 (near intraday supply and close to session high, without needing a full breakout).

Take-profit (close)

• Target 0.04910 (near the lower demand pocket above 0.0485, realistic within 24h range conditions).

(Risk note: if price accepts above ~0.0520 and especially above 0.0540, bearish thesis weakens; a stop would normally be placed above those levels, but you only requested open/close prices.)