Chainlink Price Analysis Powered by AI

LINK Relief Bounce Under Pressure: Selling the $9.85 Supply Zone for a Likely Retest of $9.35

Market Snapshot (LINK)

Current price: $9.6805
Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-06 → 2026-02-03) + intraday hourly sequence into the current print.

1) Multi-timeframe Trend & Structure

A) Daily trend (primary)

Price has been in a clear bearish sequence since early January:
- Early Jan peak zone: ~$14.18 (Jan 6 high).
- Followed by consistent lower highs / lower lows.
- Most recent major breakdown: $12 → $10.77 → $9.97 → $9.41, confirming acceleration of the downtrend.
Net move (approx.): $14.0 → $9.68 (-30%+) over ~4 weeks.
Conclusion: Daily structure remains decisively bearish; rebounds are corrective until proven otherwise.

B) Intraday structure (last ~24h from hourly)

Hourly shows a sell-off to $9.085 (capitulation low) followed by a sharp rebound back to $9.76–$9.85, then a pullback to $9.68.
This looks like a classic dead-cat bounce / short-covering impulse, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.
Conclusion: Short-term bounce exists, but it is occurring inside a larger downtrend and is vulnerable to fade.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action)

Key supports

$9.08–$9.10: Intraday panic low (hourly). If this breaks, downside can expand quickly.
$9.26–$9.33: Prior daily low area (Feb 1 low ~$9.26) + intraday support region.
$9.40–$9.42: Feb 1 close area (~$9.41). Often retested in bear markets.

Key resistances

$9.80–$9.85: Intraday supply/near-session high; multiple hourly touches.
$9.95–$10.06: Psychological $10 and recent daily resistance (Feb 2 high ~$9.98; Feb 1 high ~$10.06).
$10.52–$10.80: Breakdown zone from Jan 30–31 (gap-like air pocket created by the heavy liquidation).

Implication: Price is currently below the nearest meaningful resistance band ($9.80–$9.85), which favors sellers defending that level.

3) Momentum & Rate-of-Change (Price-based inference)

(Exact indicator values like RSI/MACD can’t be computed perfectly without full intraday history, but we can infer from swing behavior and candle geometry.)

A) Momentum regime

The daily sequence from Jan 29 → Feb 1 shows large bearish expansion (notably Jan 31 range: low ~$9.33 from ~$10.77 open area). That’s typical of momentum trend behavior.
The last two daily candles:
- Feb 2: recovery close near $9.81 from $9.41.
- Feb 3: drift down to $9.68 despite a strong intraday rebound.
Interpretation: bounce momentum exists but is failing to convert into daily continuation up.

B) “Impulse then correction” read

The move $9.11 → $9.85 is a bullish impulse.
The current price $9.68 is a correction from that impulse and is happening under resistance.
In downtrends, these corrections often resolve with a second leg down (especially if $9.80–$9.85 caps).

4) Volatility & Liquidity Signals (Range/Volume)

A) Daily volatility expansion

Late Jan / early Feb shows very large daily ranges and very high volume:
- Jan 31 volume: ~1.24B
- Feb 2 volume: ~1.20B
- Feb 3 volume: ~1.03B
High volume after a breakdown often indicates distribution + forced liquidation, then mean-reversion bounces that are typically choppy.

B) What high vol implies for next 24h

Expect wide intraday swings. Even if bearish, the path is unlikely to be smooth.
Key is whether price reclaims and holds above $9.85 / $10.00. Without that, volatility tends to favor stop-runs lower.

5) Candle/Pattern Read

A) Daily pattern context

After prolonged selling, the market printed a sharp low (Feb 1) and bounced (Feb 2). This can be the start of basing or a typical bear-market relief bounce.
Feb 3 failing to close above the prior day’s close materially suggests buyers are not in control yet.

B) Intraday pattern

Hourly shows: dump → rebound → pullback.
The rebound peaked near $9.85 and rolled over; that’s consistent with a retest of supply and rejection.

6) Scenario Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

Base case (higher probability): bearish drift / retest lows

If LINK remains below $9.80–$9.85, probability favors:
- A retest of $9.40–$9.33 first.
- Potential wick to $9.10–$9.08 if selling accelerates.

Alternative case: bullish extension

If LINK breaks and holds above $9.85, next magnet levels:
- $9.98–$10.06
- then $10.50+ (less likely within 24h unless broad market risk-on returns strongly)

My weighted view: rebound is corrective; downtrend pressure likely resumes, targeting a retest of $9.40/$9.33 within 24 hours.

7) Trade Plan Logic (Why Short Here)

Trend alignment: Daily trend is down; trading with the trend has edge.
Location: Price is under immediate resistance ($9.80–$9.85) after a sharp bounce.
Market behavior: High-volatility breakdowns frequently produce lower-high retests before continuation down.

Decision

Sell (Short Position)

Optimal open price (entry)

Prefer selling into resistance rather than at market.
Open Price (short): $9.83 (inside the $9.80–$9.85 supply band).

Target close price (take profit)

First meaningful support cluster and common retest zone:
Close Price (take profit): $9.35

(Rationale: $9.35 sits near the $9.26–$9.33/ $9.40 structure area, capturing a realistic retest without needing a full breakdown through $9.08.)