JASMY Coils at the Keltner Floor: High-Reward 24h Bounce into R1

Executive summary (24h view)

• Bias: Mildly bullish (mean-reversion) within a broader daily downtrend
• Expectation: Range hold above 0.00658 support with an attempted push toward 0.00685–0.00690 (R1 zone)
• Strategy: Buy the dip into the 0.00658–0.00662 demand band; target a pop into pivot resistance 0.00688–0.00693 within 24h

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): After the October 10 shock (intraday low ~0.00488) JASMY entered a persistent sequence of lower highs/lower lows. November 21 set a local low (~0.00723 close), then a deeper swing low printed on Dec 1 (~0.00656). Price bounced to Dec 9 (~0.00734 close; high ~0.00739) and has since retraced back toward the December floor. The structure remains a broad descending channel, but current price sits in the lower-third of that channel where mean-reversion bounces have repeatedly emerged.
• Near-term (daily last 10–15 sessions): Sideways-to-down within 0.00656–0.00740. Notably, lows: Dec 1 (0.00656), Dec 7 (0.00658), Dec 12 (0.00659) form a nearly flat base: a nascent triple-bottom zone around 0.00656–0.00660.
• Intraday (hourly, Dec 12–13): Tight compression between ~0.00662 and ~0.00667 with occasional probes to ~0.00669. Today’s hourly session printed a marginal liquidity sweep to 0.006619 and swiftly reverted, signaling reactive demand at the same base.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.00714. Price (0.00663) sits ~7% below the 20SMA, indicating bearish trend on daily but with distance sufficient for a snapback.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Above 20SMA and current price; confirms broader downtrend.
• Implication: Trend headwind persists, but the distance from 20SMA favors a short-horizon mean reversion toward 0.00685–0.00705 if support holds.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14d, est): ~40–45. Not oversold, but in the lower band where rebound probabilities improve, especially near established support.
• Stochastic (est): Low-20s and curling; supportive of a short-term uptick from base.
• Hourly momentum: Micro bullish divergence hints appear as price revisited 0.00662–0.00663 while intraday momentum stabilized (tight consolidation after a minor sweep). This often precedes a range expansion upward when higher timeframe support is intact.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14d, est): ~0.00035. Recent daily true ranges cluster between 0.00030–0.00040. A 24h swing toward 0.00685–0.00690 sits comfortably within a 1x ATR move, consistent with a routine mean reversion day.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2; est): Mid ~0.00714; lower ~0.00620–0.00625 (using stdev ~0.00045–0.00047). Price at 0.00663 is roughly a −1.1 to −1.3 z-score from the midline—statistically favorable for bounce attempts, not yet stretched to extremes (−2σ), but sufficiently discounted to expect reversion toward the mid/upper-third of the local range.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ±1.5 ATR, est): Mid ~0.00708; lower ~0.00655; upper ~0.00760. Price is sitting just above the lower Keltner boundary, a classic location for countertrend scalps.

5. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud and Kijun/Tenkan: bearish regime. However, Tenkan and Kijun likely flat-to-gently descending near ~0.0069–0.0071, creating a magnet if price catches a bid. Flat lines in Ichimoku often act as pull targets; this aligns with R1/pivot resistance.

6. MACD / Histogram

• Daily MACD remains below zero, with histogram contracting after the early-December bounce. This is not a long-term buy signal, but a flattening histogram near support commonly precedes short-lived mean reversion rallies.

7. Volume, participation, and profile context

• Volume has tapered in December (roughly 20–32M/day vs higher in Nov), indicating a balance area forming. Balance zones commonly mean-revert until a decisive catalyst.
• Recent high-turnover days clustered around 0.0069–0.0073, suggesting a volume node/mini-POC; price often re-tests such “fair value” after tagging lower extremes. That node aligns with our 24h target band (0.00685–0.00693).

8. Classical levels, pivots, and supply/demand

• Key support: 0.00656–0.00662 (Dec 1/7/12 lows and today’s hourly sweep). Multiple touches without decisive breakdown increase the level’s significance.
• Immediate resistances: 0.00670 (micro pivot), 0.00682–0.00685 (intraday supply), 0.00688–0.00693 (R1/pivot and Dec 8 close), then 0.00704–0.00710 (20EMA/Tenkan zone).
• Daily pivot math for Dec 12 (H 0.00694, L 0.006589, C 0.006678):
  • P ≈ 0.006736
  • R1 ≈ 0.006882
  • S1 ≈ 0.006531
  • R2 ≈ 0.007087; S2 ≈ 0.006385 The R1 at ~0.00688 is a natural 24h magnet when price rejects S1 band (~0.00653–0.00658).

9. Fibonacci alignment (recent swing)

• Swing low (Dec 1): 0.006561 to swing high (Dec 9): 0.007391 (range 0.000830)
• Retracements: 23.6% ≈ 0.006757; 38.2% ≈ 0.006878; 50% ≈ 0.006976; 61.8% ≈ 0.007075.
• Current price 0.00663 is below 23.6%, i.e., a deep retrace nearing swing low support. A reflex toward 38.2% (≈0.006878) is consistent with our R1 target.

10. Pattern read and candle behavior

• Daily prints over the past week show small real bodies with lower shadows around 0.00658–0.00660 → demand absorption. That repeated defense typically fuels a pop back to mid-range unless bears force a decisive close below ~0.00656.
• Hourly “Bollinger squeeze” (tight ~0.00005–0.00007 band) suggests a volatility expansion is imminent. Given the multi-touch base, odds tilt upward for the first expansion attempt.

11. Quant-style tilt and scenarios (24h)

• Up-move to R1 band (0.00685–0.00690): ~55% likelihood
• Sideways (0.00660–0.00675 chop): ~20% likelihood
• Breakdown (decisive hourly close <0.00656 leading to 0.00640 test): ~25% likelihood
• Skew rationale: Repeated base holds and proximity to Keltner/Bollinger lower bands favor a bounce, even within a broader downtrend.

12. Risk management and execution plan

• Entry tactic: Staggered limit buys in 0.00660–0.00662; allow a final add near 0.00658 if offered (liquidity sweep behavior common on weekends).
• Invalidation (stop, suggested): Daily close <0.00654 or intraday acceptance below 0.00656 on rising volume. That opens 0.00640 then 0.00620.
• Profit-taking: First scale 0.00682–0.00685; primary take-profit near R1 ≈ 0.00688. If momentum is strong (impulsive candles through 0.00688), a runner can target 0.00693–0.00700, but that’s optional beyond the 24h window.

13. Confluence checklist (why Buy here)

• Multi-touch demand at 0.00656–0.00660 (triple-bottom zone)
• Price near lower Keltner boundary and below 20SMA with a −1.1 to −1.3σ Bollinger z-score → mean-reversion friendly
• Pivot math aligns: S1 rejected; R1 ≈ 0.00688 aligns with Fibonacci 38.2% (≈0.006878) and prior volume node
• Intraday squeeze at support often resolves into an up-impulse before trending resumes

Bottom line

• The higher-timeframe trend is still down, but the 24h setup favors a tactical long from support, aiming for a controlled reversion into 0.00685–0.00690.