JASMY coiled above 50% Fib: positioning for a 24-hour pop toward 0.0173

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for JasmyCoin (JASMY)

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Primary structure since late June: Sharp advance into late July (peak ~0.0205 on 7/23), corrective pullback into early August (~0.01439 on 8/2), then a secondary upswing peaking 8/13 (~0.01873), followed by a pullback and consolidation. Net effect: higher timeframe uptrend attempting to resume after a mid-cycle correction.
• Recent swing map:
  • Swing low: 8/2 at ~0.014388 (also 8/5 close 0.014518 as a second trough) = double-bottom zone 0.0143–0.0146.
  • Swing high: 8/13 at ~0.018728.
  • Pullback lows: 8/15 at ~0.016218, 8/18 at ~0.015732, 8/19 at ~0.014906, 8/21 at ~0.014962 (higher low vs 8/19 by a hair), then a strong up day 8/22 closing 0.016482 on elevated volume.
• Current price 0.0165008 sits right on the 50% retracement of the 8/2→8/13 upswing (50% ≈ 0.016558). Price reclaimed and is holding near this equilibrium level—constructive for basing and a push toward 0.0168–0.0173 next.

2. Key support/resistance and liquidity

• Immediate support: 0.01605–0.01610 (61.8% Fib at ~0.01605, intraday 8/23 low cluster ~0.01604–0.01610), then 0.01560–0.01564 (daily closes and volume node), and 0.01510–0.01532 (78.6% Fib ~0.01532, daily pivot S1 from 8/22 ~0.01513).
• Immediate resistance: 0.01680–0.01705 (recent highs 8/17 ~0.01704, 8/22 high ~0.01681), then 0.01732–0.01735 (daily pivot R1 from 8/22 ≈ 0.017324), 0.01770 (23.6% Fib ≈ 0.01770), 0.01817–0.01827 (pivot R2 ≈ 0.01817; 20D BB upper ≈ 0.01827), and 0.01855–0.01873 (8/12–8/13 highs).
• Stop/liq pockets above: 0.01681, 0.01704, 0.01766; breaks above these can trigger momentum runs toward 0.0177–0.0182.

3. Moving averages (Daily)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.01615 (computed), 20-day EMA likely slightly higher (~0.01625–0.01630) given recent uptick. Price (0.01650) is above both: short-term bullish bias.
• 50-day EMA (approx) near ~0.0155 given June lows and July advance. Price above 50EMA: medium-term bullish alignment (20>50>price? Likely 20EMA > 50EMA and price > both) = trending resumption setup.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2) (Daily)

• Midline (SMA20): ~0.01615; Upper: ~0.01827; Lower: ~0.01404; Width ≈ 0.00423 (~26% of price), indicating moderate realized vol. Price now just above midline, leaving headroom toward upper band. Typical mean-reversion-to-expansion sequence favors a test of 0.0168–0.0173 and potentially 0.0177–0.0182 if momentum accelerates.

5. RSI/Momentum (Daily)

• RSI(14) ≈ 50 (neutral, our calc ~49.8). This is midline, but the RSI has turned up from sub-50 earlier in the week. Neutral momentum with room to the upside before overbought (70) becomes an issue.
• MACD (12,26,9) qualitative read: After the 8/22 surge, the fast line is likely curling above the signal or approaching a bullish cross near the zero line; histogram likely turning positive. That supports a near-term push to resistance.

6. Ichimoku (Daily, approximate)

• Tenkan-sen (9): ≈ (HH9 + LL9)/2 ~ (0.01717 + 0.01488)/2 ≈ 0.01603.
• Kijun-sen (26): Using wider 26-period extremes including late June lows: ≈ (0.02052 + 0.01035)/2 ≈ 0.01543.
• Price > Tenkan and > Kijun; Leading Span A ≈ (Tenkan+Kijun)/2 ≈ 0.01573; Span B ≈ ~0.0154–0.0155. Cloud lies below price and is relatively thin—bullish bias with potential for trend continuation while above ~0.0157.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 8/2 low 0.014388 → 8/13 high 0.018728)

• 61.8%: 0.016047 (tagged intra-8/23 session), 50%: 0.016558 (current area), 38.2%: 0.017069, 23.6%: 0.017702. Price sitting near 50% often acts as a balance point; holding above 61.8% and reclaiming 38.2% (~0.01707) would confirm buyers in control.

8. Volume, OBV, and accumulation

• 8/22 volume 60.8M vs prior day 25.5M: an expansion day with strong close—classic accumulation signature. The session pushed price from sub-0.015 to mid-0.016s, signaling demand re-entered the tape.
• OBV (qualitative) should be trending up post-8/22; continuation would favor tests of 0.0168–0.0173.
• Volume-by-price (recent weeks) likely has a notable node around 0.0161–0.0164; the market is accepting value above that, which becomes a springboard if held.

9. Volatility and ATR

• ATR(14) daily estimated ≈ 0.0011. With current price ~0.0165, a ±ATR move maps a 0.0154–0.0176 daily envelope. That puts 0.0173 within typical 1-day reach, and 0.0177 within a strong day’s reach (1.5–2 ATR).

10. Intraday (Hourly, last 24h)

• Price action 8/23: Early dip to ~0.01604–0.01610; steady grind higher; last prints ~0.01649–0.01651 with higher lows from 13:00 onward (0.01608 → 0.01620 → 0.01627 → 0.01639 → 0.01649). Structure: intraday uptrend channel.
• Hourly momentum: Likely RSI(14h) > 50 and MACD(12,26,9h) crossing up around 16:00–20:00, consistent with the sustained recovery.
• Hourly VWAP (session) is likely ~0.01630–0.01640; price trading just above, indicating buyers defending.

11. Patterns and tactical read

• Range-to-breakout setup: Resistance shelf 0.0168–0.0170 (recent highs). Above 0.01707 (38.2% Fib) opens path to 0.01732 (pivot R1) and 0.01770 (23.6% Fib). Liquidity resting above 0.01681/0.01704 may accelerate follow-through.
• Micro ascending structure from 8/19–8/23: higher low vs 8/19, impulsive bar 8/22, constructive consolidation 8/23. This often precedes a continuation push.

12. Confluence summary

• Bullish: Price above 20/50 MAs, above Ichimoku baseline and cloud, sitting on 50% Fib, strong 8/22 accumulation day, intraday higher lows, price above VWAP, and plenty of runway to BB upper/KC upper.
• Neutral: Daily RSI ~50 (not overbought), MACD just turning (needs confirmation), market still below 0.0170–0.0173 resistance cluster.
• Bearish risks: A firm rejection at 0.0168–0.0170 leading to loss of 0.01605 (61.8% Fib) would re-open 0.0156 and 0.0151.

13. Next 24 hours – probabilistic path

• Base case (60%): Shallow pullback toward 0.01630–0.01635, then push to 0.0168–0.0173. If 0.01707 flips to support, extension to ~0.0173 (pivot R1) likely within 24h.
• Bull case (25%): Strong momentum day; break above 0.0173 triggers a run to 0.0177–0.0180, possibly wicking toward 0.0182 (pivot R2/BB upper zone proximity).
• Bear case (15%): Failure at 0.0166–0.0168; drop through 0.01605; test 0.0156. Pattern would invalidate the long bias near term.

14. Trade plan, entry/exit and risk framing

• Bias: Buy-the-dip intra-day into 0.01630–0.01635 where VWAP/structure support sits and 61.8% Fib (~0.01605) is nearby for stop logic.
• Entry: Limit buy ~0.01634 (just under current spot to improve R:R and align with intraday VWAP).
• Take Profit (24h target): 0.01732 (daily pivot R1 and resistance cluster). This is a realistic 1–1.2 ATR up move from entry.
• Suggested stop (not asked for field; for context): ~0.01602 (below 61.8% Fib and hourly swing shelf). Risk ≈ 0.00032 (~1.95%); Reward ≈ 0.00098 (~6.0%); R:R ≈ 3.1:1.

15. What would change the view?

• Bearish invalidation: Hourly close below 0.01605 and daily close back under ~0.0159 would warn of a deeper rotation into 0.0156/0.0153.
• Bullish confirmation: Clean break and hold above 0.01707, then 0.01732; sustained volume > recent average would strengthen a drive toward 0.0177–0.0182.

Conclusion: The weight of evidence (MA/Ichimoku alignment, 50% Fib hold, strong accumulation day, intraday uptrend) supports a tactical long with a near-term target at the 0.0173 resistance band. Pullbacks into 0.0163 are attractive for entry. Expect range 0.0161–0.0173 over the next 24 hours with upward skew.