Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Injective (INJ)

1. Long-term Trend Analysis (Daily Candlesticks)

Examining the daily chart data from late March 2025 to current:

• Uptrend Initiation: After a local low near $7.06 on April 6, INJ started to trend upwards, breaking through resistance in early May with an explosive move ($9.56 → $11.14 on May 8).
• Parabolic Move & Volatility: Price exploded up to a peak of ~$15.44 (May 28) before a sharp correction  a textbook blow-off top (B.O.T.).
• Correction & Support Creation: The subsequent correction found support at the $11.00–$11.50 area several times. Notably, the 6/5 and 6/13–6/20 price action established a base.

2. Price Structure & Support/Resistance

• Major Support Regions:
  • $11.00 (current and recent lows 6/17, 6/19, 6/20 – tested and held)
  • $10.65–$10.90 (intraday small bounces on 6/20)
• Major Resistance Regions:
  • $12.20–$12.30 (recent supply zone: 6/12, 6/16, 6/21)
  • $13.20–$13.70 (mid-May bounce zones)
  • $15.00 (May blow-off-top zone)

3. Volume Analysis

• Recent Selling Climax: Extreme volume during late May selloff; this can indicate capitulation.
• Volume Dry-up at Base: Noticeable decline in volume as the price consolidates above $11, a traditional bullish sign. Fewer sellers remain, and a change in direction is probable if volume returns on the upside.

4. Short-term Intraday (Hourly Data, Past 24H)

• Range-bound Action: For most of 6/20, price oscillated $11.10–$11.53 before a late-day dip closer to $11.07 and a modest bounce to $11.14.
• False Breakdowns: Multiple wicks below $11.10 were rapidly bought back, suggesting aggressive accumulation.
• No Trend Continuation Down Yet: Despite tests, price failed to make a convincing new low below $11.00.

5. Volatility Indicators (Recent Weeks)

• ATR (Approximation): After parabolic increases and a dramatic correction, daily ranges are narrowing, signaling decreasing volatility—a common hallmark at the end of corrections/consolidation.
• Potential for Expansion: This volatility compression often precedes expansion, likely triggered by a new uptrend or breakdown.

6. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Recognition

• Hammer and Doji-like Structures (Local Lows): Sessions like 6/19 and 6/20 feature long lower wicks at support, indicating buyers absorbing sell pressure.
• Descending Channel/Flag: Over the last two weeks, the price has moved in a broad descending channel—which, given the prior uptrend, often resolves to the upside.
• Multiple Bottoms (~$11.00): Triple test and hold strongly resemble a triple bottom—a classical bullish reversal formation.

7. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA Application)

• 20/50-Day EMA: Rough approximation places both in the $12.00–$13.00 region (recent resistance) as price consolidates below. Closing above $12.30 (next resistance) would be major confirmation of a new uptrend.
• Short-term (5/10 EMA): Price is hugging or slightly above short-term averages, supportive of a base formation.

8. Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI (Estimated): After being heavily overbought in late May, likely reset to below-40, possibly now moving into 40–50 (neutral-to-bullish turn, typical in reversals at major support).
• MACD: Divergence likely as price finds footing—bullish MACD cross watch signal as buyers step in.

9. Order Flow & Market Psychology

• Capitulation By Weak Hands: After the sharp run-up and equally sharp retrace, the remaining holders are stronger hands; panic sellers have likely exited.
• Accumulation at Support: Consistent defense of the $11 line on modest-to-low volume—smarter money often accumulates quietly here.
• No Large Spike Down: Lack of major breakdown implies sellers’ exhaustion.

10. Probability-Weighted Scenarios (Next 24 Hours)

• Bullish (Primary – 60%): Multiple defenses at $11.00, hammer formations, volume dry-up, and longer-term structural supports suggest price will attempt an upward move.
  • Immediate resistance to target: $11.60–$12.20
• Bearish (Secondary – 30%): If $11.00 cleanly breaks on strong volume, rapid move to $10.65/$10.25 likely.
• Range-Bound (10%): Further sideways action with $11.00 holding, $11.55 capping upside.

11. Confirmation & Invalidations

• BUY Confirmation: Intraday reversals, bullish engulfing candles, or increased volume above $11.45 would confirm the thesis.
• Invalidation: Daily close below $10.90 or rapid breakdown on heavy sell volume.

12. Risk Management: Stop-loss & Target

• Entry: Optimal buy at current levels ($11.14) to $11.00; locally strongest support.
• Target (TP): First profit-take at $12.20, aligning with local resistance and prior support-turned-resistance.
• Stop-loss: Tight risk at $10.88 (below recent swing lows).

13. Market Context

• Macro-crypto Outlook: If Bitcoin/Ethereum are stable-to-bullish, altcoins like INJ often rally from such support zones.

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Synthesis:

• Injective (INJ) has completed a textbook correction after a parabolic move and now sits on extremely strong daily support ($11.00). Multiple technical factors (triple bottom, volume dry-up, hammer candles, oversold oscillators, false breakdowns) point to an imminent bounce. Buying near $11.14 with a tight stop and targeting a move to at least $12.20 is the highest probability play, with macro and micro structure both aligning for a rebound.