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HYPE icon
HYPE
▼
Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$32.55
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T52k
Date
2026-02-06
15:19
Analyzed

Hyperliquid Price Analysis Powered by AI

HYPE Post-Spike Distribution: Sell the Retest as $35–$36 Supply Caps the Next 24h

Market context & data quality checks

  • Instrument: Hyperliquid (HYPE)
  • Current price: $33.247 (as of 2026-02-06 15:19Z)
  • Timeframes provided: Daily candles (Nov 2025 → Feb 2026) + Intraday hourly candles (last ~24h)
  • Data caveat: Daily series has a missing 2026-02-02 candle (null OHLCV). I treat it as a gap in the record, not a true market gap.

1) Higher-timeframe structure (Daily)

A. Trend & market regime

  • Nov → Dec: clear downtrend from ~41–42 to a capitulation low near $22.54 (2025-12-18).
  • Late Dec → mid Jan: basing and choppy recovery (24–26 zone).
  • Jan 20: another washout to $20.97 close (cycle low area).
  • Jan 26 → Jan 28: explosive rally:
    • 01/26 close 24.887
    • 01/27 close 30.893
    • 01/28 close 34.358
    • Volume spiked massively (classic breakout/short squeeze behavior).
  • Jan 29 → Feb 01: pullback/consolidation around 30–31.
  • Feb 03 → Feb 06: renewed volatility with very high volume; price is currently mid-range of a wide recent swing.

Regime conclusion: HYPE is in a post-breakout high-volatility regime with large ranges and heavy participation (high volume), meaning continuation moves are possible but pullbacks are violent.

B. Key support/resistance (Daily)

Using recent swing highs/lows and high-volume pivot zones:

  • Resistance zone R1: 34.35–36.10 (01/28 close 34.36, 02/04 high 36.11; also today’s intraday high ~36.61)
  • Resistance zone R2: 38.30–38.30 (02/03 high 38.30)
  • Support zone S1: 32.40–32.55 (02/03 close 32.51; multiple intraday reactions)
  • Support zone S2: 31.60–31.80 (today intraday low 31.61; also psychological/structure)
  • Major support S3: 30.50–31.10 (late Jan/early Feb consolidation)

Where price is now ($33.25):

  • Above S1/S2 but below R1. This is no-man’s land inside the volatility band → entries should be placed at edges (support on longs / resistance on shorts).

2) Price action & candlestick read (Daily + Intraday)

A. Recent daily candles (context)

  • 02/03: big range day (32.47–38.30) closing 32.51 → strong rejection of highs.
  • 02/04: rebound to close 35.39 → buyers responded, but still volatile.
  • 02/05: strong selloff day close 32.94 with huge volume → distribution / profit-taking.
  • 02/06 (so far): wide range 31.80–36.60, currently 33.25 → again, rejection from higher prices.

Candlestick conclusion: repeated failure to hold above ~35–36 suggests overhead supply. Buyers exist (bounces from ~31.6–32.5), but rallies are being sold.

B. Intraday structure (Hourly)

Key hourly events:

  • 00:00–01:00: sharp breakout to 36.61.
  • 01:00–06:00: drift lower; then a fast drop to 33.78 at 06:00.
  • 06:00–08:00: continuation to 32.56.
  • 10:00–12:00: rebound to 34.31.
  • 13:00–15:17: fade back to 33.25.

This is a classic impulse up → distribution → mean reversion day.

Micro conclusion: short-term trend over the last ~8 hours is lower highs / lower closes, favoring bearish continuation unless support reclaims ~34.3.

3) Volatility & range tools

A. ATR-style reasoning (practical)

Recent daily ranges are huge (often $3–$6+). Today’s intraday range is ~$4.80 (36.60–31.80).

  • In such conditions, directional calls must be paired with edge entries; mid-range entries are low expectancy.

B. Bollinger Band logic (conceptual without exact calc)

Given the expansion in range and repeated reversals, bands are likely widely expanded. Expanded bands + inability to sustain highs typically precedes:

  • either a volatility contraction (chop) or
  • a trend resumption in the direction of the post-impulse drift (currently down from 36.6).

Near-term probability favors retest of lower band/support (32.5 then 31.8).

4) Momentum indicators (inference from swings)

A. RSI (qualitative)

  • The move 31.6 → 36.6 in one hour likely pushed RSI to overbought intraday.
  • Subsequent multi-hour fade implies RSI is now probably neutral-to-bearish, not deeply oversold yet.

B. MACD (qualitative)

  • Daily had a strong bullish burst late Jan; the recent sequence (02/04 up, 02/05 down, 02/06 fading) suggests momentum rollover and possible bearish cross on lower timeframes.

Momentum conclusion: momentum is cooling after blow-off-style volatility; this often leads to support retests.

5) Volume & market participation

  • Daily volumes have been extremely elevated since 01/27 and again 02/03–02/06.
  • High volume on down days (02/05) + failure to hold rebounds implies distribution rather than clean accumulation.

Volume conclusion: sellers are active into strength; rallies are being used to exit/short.

6) Market profile / “value” reasoning (practical zones)

Given repeated trading and closes clustering around ~32.5–33.8, that region is likely current value area.

  • Price above value (35–36) tends to be rejected.
  • Price below value (31.6–32.4) tends to attract bids.

With price at 33.25 (inside value), the better trade is to sell at the upper edge (near 34.3–35.0) or buy at lower edge (31.8–32.5). Since you require a single Buy/Sell decision, I’ll bias to what’s more probable for the next 24h from current conditions.

7) Pattern recognition & scenario planning

Observed pattern: “Spike and fade” / bull trap risk

  • Spike to 36.6 failed to hold.
  • Multiple rejections above 35–36 across several days.

This frequently resolves as:

  1. retest of support (32.5), then
  2. either bounce or breakdown to next support (31.8), occasionally extending to 30.6.

24-hour base case (highest probability)

  • Bearish drift / retest: price revisits 32.55 first; if that breaks, 31.80 is next.

Bull case (lower probability)

  • If price reclaims and holds above 34.30, it can re-challenge 35.40–36.10.

Given current tape (lower highs since noon, rejection from 34.8, sitting near 33.25), base case is more likely.

8) Trade decision (24h outlook)

Directional call: Sell (Short)

Rationale (confluence):

  • Overhead supply at 35–36 repeatedly rejects.
  • Intraday structure shows post-spike distribution and lower-high sequence.
  • High volatility + heavy volume suggests two-sided but seller-dominant at highs.
  • Highest-probability move in next 24h is a support retest rather than immediate breakout.

9) Optimal open/close levels (execution)

Because price is mid-range, the optimal short is not at $33.25 market; it’s on a bounce into resistance.

Suggested Short Entry (Open Price)

  • Open (Sell/Short): $34.30
    • This aligns with the intraday rebound pivot (12:00 close ~34.31) and acts as a sell-the-retest of broken intraday support.

Take Profit (Close Price)

  • Close (Take Profit): $32.55
    • First strong support/value low (02/03 close area; multiple intraday reactions). This is a realistic 24h target within current volatility.

(If you were managing actively, an extended target could be ~$31.80, but for a single defined TP, $32.55 is the higher-probability fill.)

24h prediction summary

  • Expected move: downward/sideways with bearish bias
  • Projected 24h range: roughly $31.8–$35.0
  • Most likely path: bounce toward 34.3 gets sold → drift to 32.6 support