Detailed Technical Analysis of Hedera (HBAR) – July 2, 2025

1. Step-by-Step Analytical Process

1.1. Market Context and Recent Trend Review

• Recent Price Action: HBAR has experienced significant volatility over the past three months. The price peaked above $0.22 in mid-May, then entered a persistent downtrend, hitting local lows near $0.13 at the end of June before rebounding over $0.15.
• Recent Momentum: Over the past two days, the price retraced from sub-$0.14 levels to current $0.156, signifying an aggressive short-term bounce that follows a protracted bleed in June. This rally appears to be losing steam in the most recent hourly candles, as evidenced by smaller real bodies and lower tails.

1.2. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend: Lower highs and lower lows since May, with each significant bounce (e.g., late May, mid-June) leading to failed attempts to reclaim prior support levels.
• Short-Term Trend: V-shaped recovery since June 22, but the price has just retested the 50-day SMA (implied around $0.155-$0.16 zone) and is now stalling.

1.3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Major Support Zones:
  • $0.1335 - $0.1379 (rebound zone from June 21-23)
  • $0.1446 - $0.1460 (recent breakout base, now first support)
  • $0.1500 (psychological handle, minor support)
• Major Resistance Levels:
  • $0.158 - $0.160 (intraday and May/June breakdown area)
  • $0.1645 (early June prior support/new resistance)
  • $0.1700 (50-day mean reversion)

1.4. Volume Analysis

• Volume was heavy during the drop to $0.13, and also during the initial bounce, but is now declining as the rally attempts to clear $0.156–0.158. This drop-off in volume suggests weakening buyer conviction at the new highs of this mini-rally and rising risk of a reversal.

1.5. Candlestick and Price Patterns

• The daily chart shows a possible bullish engulfing bar on June 23, triggering short-term reversal, but the last 24 hours form a spinning top/doji type—indecision at a critical resistance zone.
• Intraday hourly candles: rapid up-thrust in the 15:00–20:00 UTC zone is followed by small-bodied candles and the first reversal attempts just above $0.156.

1.6. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Estimated): Likely rebounded from an oversold reading below 30 as price bottomed, but currently in neutral territory (~50), neither showing clear overbought nor strong bullish acceleration.
• MACD: Fast line is turning up and approaching the slow line, but momentum is flattening as price reaches resistance.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Likely overbought on lower timeframes given the sharp bounce from $0.144 to $0.156 in hours.

1.7. Moving Averages

• 20-day EMA: Turning up but still under longer averages.
• 50-day SMA: Serving as resistance (approx $0.155–0.158). HBAR is struggling to close decisively above it.
• 200-day SMA: Well above, near $0.18, far from reclaiming any major bullish trend.

1.8. Volatility Analysis

• Recent realized volatility is elevated: major swing from $0.13 to $0.16 in barely a week.
• Bollinger Bands (estimated): Price is at or above the upper band on the hourly, indicating short-term overextension and elevated pullback risk.

1.9. Fibonacci Retracements

• From the June high ($0.18) to the June low ($0.13):
  • 23.6% retrace: $0.141
  • 38.2% retrace: $0.151
  • 50% retrace: ~$0.155
  • 61.8% retrace: $0.1595
• The current price ($0.156) is just between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, a common zone for reversal in bear markets.

1.10. Order Flow and Liquidity Zones

• The surge in volume and price acceleration into $0.156–0.158 implies active selling interest from prior bag-holders, trapped longs, and short-term profit takers. Visible liquidity on the order book (if available) likely clustered at $0.158–0.160 as sell orders.
• The lack of follow-through above $0.156 after the rapid move up increases the likelihood of a near-term price rejection.

1.11. Sentiment and Market Psychology

• Absence of new bullish catalysts. The bounce appears technical rather than fundamentally driven.
• Many market participants underwater from May/June highs, producing overhead supply and weak hands looking to exit at the earliest sign of retracement.

1.12. Confluence of Signals

Bearish Short-Term Outlook:

• Overhead resistance at $0.158–0.160 (prior breakdown/support, now resistance).
• Stalling momentum and waning volume on approach.
• Upper boundary of key Fib retracement zone.
• Overextension on the hourly Bollinger Bands and stochastics.

2. Comprehensive Investment Techniques Used

1. Trend analysis (identifying downtrend and failed bounces)
2. Support/resistance mapping
3. Volume profile analysis
4. Candlestick pattern recognition
5. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD)
6. Moving averages (multi-timeframe)
7. Bollinger Bands for overbought/oversold assessment
8. Fibonacci retracement to identify reversal/trap zones
9. Market psychology/order flow (overhead supply, profit taking)
10. Volatility review for trade sizing/risk
11. Mean reversion potential (following aggressive price acceleration)
12. Intraday analysis (hourly candles for recent pivot points)
13. Breakout/reversal pattern detection (spinning top/doji, engulfing bars, V-rebounds)

3. 24-Hour Prediction & Strategy

• Base case: Expect HBAR to face rejection in the $0.156–$0.158 band and reverse to test recent breakout supports at $0.150 and possibly $0.146.
• Additional risk: If $0.150 support fails, downside can quickly accelerate to $0.144 and even to the $0.139 area on a flush. If, instead, $0.158 is broken on high volume, the trade thesis must be reassessed—however, the probability currently favors a short setup.

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Summary

Given multiple confluences—resistance at $0.158, overbought short-term oscillators, declining volume, mean reversion signals, and intraday stalling patterns—a short (Sell) position offers the best risk/reward for the next 24 hours.

Optimal sell entry: Place a limit sell order just below resistance at $0.157 to capture upside wicks but avoid front-running into likely stop runs above $0.156. Take profit: Set cover (buy back) near $0.146, where support and recent breakout levels converge, for a 7%+ move with high risk-adjusted expectation.

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