FTT at $0.36: Dead-Cat Bounce Into Supply — Favor a 24H Sell-the-Rip Setup

Market snapshot (FTT)

• Current price: $0.3604
• Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-06 → 2026-02-03) + last ~24h hourly tape (2026-02-02 22:00 → 2026-02-03 21:58)
• Regime: Prolonged downtrend with recent micro-bounce; liquidity/volume is inconsistent with occasional event spikes.

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1) Multi-timeframe structure & trend

Daily trend (primary)

• From early Nov ($0.76–$0.82) to now ($0.36): clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
• Key swing points:
  • Major distribution / breakdown: 2025-12-05 to 12-07 spike (highs up to ~0.76) failed and rolled over.
  • Secondary rally failure: 2026-01-02/03 (high ~0.7638 intraday on 01-03) followed by steady deterioration.
  • Hard breakdown leg: 2026-01-23 onward, culminating in 01-25 low ~0.3937 then continuation to recent low 02-03 daily low ~0.3414.
• Interpretation: The market is still in a bearish market structure; bounces are corrective unless a major level is reclaimed.

Hourly trend (tactical / next 24h)

• Hourly shows selloff from ~0.371 → 0.342, then a sharp bounce to ~0.3616 and settle at ~0.3604.
• This looks like a bear flag / dead-cat bounce after a liquidity sweep into the 0.34s.

Conclusion (structure):

• Daily: bearish.
• Hourly: rebound is real but not a confirmed reversal; price is likely to retest supply/resistance and either roll over or chop.

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2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)

Major resistances (overhead supply)

1. $0.372–$0.377: near-term cap (recent hourly highs; also aligns with recent daily opens/closes). The market rejected this zone multiple times over the last ~48h.
2. $0.400–$0.417: prior breakdown area (01-26/01-28 congestion). Strong “memory” resistance.
3. $0.455–$0.465: previous support shelf (01-23 to 01-24) that failed—classic resistance on retest.

Major supports (below)

1. $0.341–$0.349: today’s liquidation base (hourly low area). First meaningful support.
2. $0.333–$0.335 (projected): not printed in this sample, but logical next extension if 0.341 fails (measured-move logic from the intraday range).

Implication: upside is likely capped into 0.372–0.377, while downside has “air” back to 0.349/0.341.

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3) Momentum & oscillator read (inference from tape)

(Exact RSI/MACD not computed numerically here; inference based on swing sequencing and candle behavior.)

RSI-style behavior

• The daily sequence into 02-03 suggests persistent bearish momentum; the bounce from 0.341 to 0.361 is likely a mean-reversion pop from near-oversold conditions.
• Hourly: after the sharp rebound (0.342 → 0.3616), momentum typically fades unless price breaks and holds above 0.372.

MACD-style behavior

• Daily trend implies MACD is likely below zero and not convincingly crossed up; the recent bounce is probably a bearish convergence (less negative) rather than a regime flip.

Implication: momentum supports sell-the-rip until price accepts above 0.377+.

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4) Volatility & range analysis

Daily realized volatility

• Notable high-vol events: 12-05/12-06, 01-03, and 01-30.
• Recent days show renewed expansion: 02-03 daily range 0.3721 high to 0.3414 low (~8.2% intraday), indicating fragile order books.

Hourly microstructure

• Sharp dip into 0.341–0.342 followed by rebound suggests a stop-run / liquidity sweep.
• After such sweeps, price often:
  1. retests midrange (done: ~0.361)
  2. retests supply (0.372–0.377)
  3. resumes dominant trend (down) unless a breakout holds.

Implication: next 24h likely features a two-way chop with bearish bias, with better asymmetry shorting into resistance.

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5) Pattern recognition (classical)

Bear flag setup (hourly)

• Flagpole: ~0.371 → 0.342
• Flag: rebound/consolidation ~0.352–0.361
• Bear flags commonly resolve in direction of the prior move unless resistance is broken.

Failed support = resistance (daily)

• The market repeatedly lost former shelves: 0.46 → 0.41 → 0.38 → 0.36.
• Current price is sitting near a former “decision zone.” In downtrends, these zones are often distribution areas, not accumulation.

Implication: probability favors another push down after any retest of 0.37s.

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6) Volume / participation

• Daily volume spikes coincide with large moves (e.g., 01-03 massive volume). Recent daily volumes are moderate, suggesting no strong accumulation signature.
• Hourly volume prints appear only on some candles; the bounce had participation, but not enough evidence of sustained demand to reverse the daily downtrend.

Implication: Without a decisive high-volume reclaim of 0.377–0.40, rallies are suspect.

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7) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (most likely): bearish drift after retesting supply

• Path: push toward 0.368–0.372 (maybe wick to 0.377) → rejection → move back to 0.352, with risk of revisiting 0.349/0.341.
• Rationale: dominant daily downtrend + hourly bear flag + overhead supply.

Bull case (lower probability): breakout and hold

• Clean hourly closes above 0.377, then grind to 0.395–0.402.
• Would require stronger bid + absorption.

Bear case (tail risk): breakdown continuation

• Lose 0.349, accelerate to 0.341, then potential extension toward 0.333–0.335.

Net bias (next 24h): bearish-to-neutral, favoring sell rallies.

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Trade plan (decision + optimal entry)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Rationale: trend alignment (daily bearish), resistance overhead (0.372–0.377), and mean-reversion bounce likely to fade.

Optimal open (entry)

• Sell limit near: $0.3720
  • This targets the first heavy resistance zone (recent hourly highs / daily supply).
  • If price never retests, the trade is skipped (better than chasing at $0.360 in the middle of noise).

Target (take profit / close)

• Close (take profit): $0.3460
  • Just above the 0.341–0.349 support band to improve fill probability.

(Risk note: if you manage risk, an invalidation would be sustained acceptance above ~0.377–0.382; not requested but essential in practice.)