Bear-Flag Rejection Below $1.00: Short FARTCOIN Pops Into $0.97, Target $0.93 in 24 Hours

Note: This is an educational, data-driven analysis of FARTCOIN’s chart. Markets are risky; manage position size and use stop-losses.

1. Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)
• Current price: $0.9569 (last hour close)
• Timeframe reviewed: Daily since May, plus last ~24 hours of hourly data
• Character: High-beta, momentum-driven alt with pronounced swings and liquidity pockets around round numbers (0.90, 0.95, 1.00, 1.05, etc.)

2. Trend and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily): A pronounced downtrend from the late-July peak. Lower highs since 7/22 ($1.69) → 7/23 ($1.52) → late July/early Aug sub-$1.20 → 8/13 bounce to ~$1.127 failed below the 38.2% fib retrace, then rolled over. Structure remains bearish.
• Medium-term structure: After 8/11 capitulation close (~$0.881), price staged a sharp two-day rebound (8/12–8/13), but failed to reclaim $1.19 (38.2% fib) or even hold $1.10s. Subsequent pullback set a lower high; rallies have been sold.
• Short-term (intraday today): Price rallied to ~$1.008 earlier, rejected the $1.00–1.01 psychological/supply zone, and faded back to ~$0.957. This looks like a bear-flag pop and failure.
• Conclusion: Downtrend intact; current action looks like a countertrend bounce losing steam under $1.00.

3. Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance: $0.968–0.975 (pivot R1 vicinity and intraday supply); $0.98–$1.01 (round-number supply, earlier rejection); $1.045–$1.06 (8/7–8/8 supply); $1.09–$1.10; $1.126 (8/13 swing high).
• Immediate support: $0.95 (micro pivot), $0.94–$0.93 (cluster from 8/15–8/17), then $0.90, and the key capitulation low $0.881 (8/11).
• Volume context: Up-moves since 8/13 have occurred on fading volume; down-days show heavier distribution. This supports selling rallies rather than chasing breakouts.

4. Moving averages and trend indicators

• 20D SMA ≈ $1.00 (approx from last 20 closes). Price at $0.957 is below the 20D SMA → short-term bearish bias.
• 50D SMA (approx) well above current price given June–July prints mostly $1.2–$1.5+ → medium-term downtrend confirmed.
• 10D EMA (approx) just under/near $1.00 and rolling over. Price below the 10D EMA → momentum negative.
• ADX/DMI (qualitative): Trend strength moderate; lower highs since 8/13 suggest negative DI dominant.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): mid-40s to high-40s (sub-50), consistent with bearish-to-neutral momentum. No bullish divergence evident: price made lower highs after 8/13, RSI did not meaningfully improve.
• Stochastic daily: likely mid-range, curling down after failing under $1.00; room to drift lower before oversold.
• MACD daily: below zero; histogram recently contracted on the 8/12–8/13 bounce, now re-widening slightly negative as the rally stalls → bearish continuation risk.

6. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (est.) ≈ $0.10. Expected 24h range around $0.90–$1.05 if typical volatility persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ≈ $1.00; bands likely near ~$0.84–$1.16. Price is under the middle band, not near the lower band → room to drift lower without being statistically stretched.

7. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Price under cloud; Kijun near ~$1.00 acts as resistance; Tenkan ~0.96–0.97 area. Chikou below price/price below cloud → system bias bearish. Rejection at Kijun/Middle BB confluence near $1.00 adds weight to resistance.

8. VWAP/Anchored VWAP

• Anchored VWAP from the 8/11 low would now sit above current price given the strong 8/12–8/13 rally and subsequent distribution; current price below that AVWAP implies most from that rally window are at risk/unprofitable and may sell into pops.
• Intraday VWAP earlier today hovered near mid-$0.97s–$0.98s during the up-move; late-session trading below VWAP is a bearish tell for the next session open.

9. Fibonacci context (swing 7/22 high to 8/11 low)

• Range: 1.691 → 0.881 = 0.810.
• 23.6%: ~1.072; 38.2%: ~1.190; 50%: ~1.286; 61.8%: ~1.382.
• The 8/13 high (~1.127) failed between 23.6% and 38.2% retrace → shallow retracement typical of strong downtrends.
• Current rejection under $1.00 is consistent with the pattern of failing before deeper fib levels are reclaimed.

10. Pivots (derived from 8/16 H/L/C: 0.9728/0.9232/0.9412)

• Pivot P ≈ $0.9458; R1 ≈ $0.9683; R2 ≈ $0.9954; R3 ≈ $1.0179; S1 ≈ $0.9187; S2 ≈ $0.8962; S3 ≈ $0.8691.
• Today’s intraday high tested just beyond R2 early and failed back below R1 into the close → classic pivot rejection setup favoring shorts on bounces toward R1–R2.

11. Candles and patterns

• Recent daily candles: 8/12–8/13 impulsive green followed by a series of lower-high candles with upper wicks near $1.00 → supply overhead.
• Intraday today: rally to ~$1.008 with rejection, then a series of lower highs into the late session → intraday bear flag breakdown look.

12. Volume/flow indicators

• OBV (qualitative) trending lower since 8/13; rallies not reclaiming prior OBV highs.
• MFI suggests distribution: up-days lighter, down-days heavier since 8/13.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (bearish drift, 55–60%): Failures toward $0.968–$0.975 lead to a roll-over toward $0.94–$0.93. If momentum accelerates, probes toward S1 ($0.919) are possible but less likely within one session absent a fresh catalyst.
• Neutral chop (25–30%): Range trade $0.94–$0.98 around the pivot; multiple failed breaks both sides.
• Bullish breakout (15%): Strong bid through $0.98 and a decisive reclaim of $1.00–$1.01 opens a squeeze to $1.045–$1.06 (R2/BB mid confluence). Given repeated rejections and MA posture, this requires a catalyst.

14. Trade plan (tactical, short bias)

• Rationale:
  • Price below 10/20/50-day averages and under Ichimoku Kijun/cloud.
  • Rejection at round-number $1.00 and pivot R2; now back under R1.
  • Shallow fib retrace off the 8/11 low; sellers defending every pop.
• Entry: Prefer to sell a bounce into the supply shelf $0.968–$0.975 to improve risk/reward vs shorting at market.
• Stop (invalidation idea): Above $1.005–$1.015 (clear break over $1.00 and pivot R3), acknowledging round-number squeeze behavior.
• Take-profit: First target $0.930 (pre-break support/cluster). Stretch: $0.918 (S1) if momentum expands.
• Position sizing: Calibrate so that a ~$0.04–$0.05 stop equals 1R; target offers ~0.04–$0.05 for 1–1.2R to initial TP, more if extension to S1.

15. What would change my mind?

• A strong, high-volume reclaim and hold above $1.01 (daily close) that also puts price back above the 20D SMA and Kijun. That would flip the short-term bias to neutral/bullish and target $1.045–$1.06 next.

16. 24-hour price path expectation

• Early: attempt to probe $0.968–$0.975; sellers defend.
• Mid-session: fade into $0.95, then $0.94–$0.93.
• Late: either base above $0.93 or, if liquidity thins, a quick tag toward $0.92 before mean-reverting.

Summary call: Favor selling a bounce near $0.972 with a take-profit around $0.930 over the next 24 hours. Risk guard above $1.01.