ETH poised for pivot reclaim: Confluence base at 3,10x targets 3,216 in 24 hours

Note: This is educational market analysis, not financial advice. Crypto is highly volatile; manage risk and verify levels on your own platform.

Executive take: ETH has completed a 3-day corrective pullback from the Dec 10 swing high and is basing above a dense confluence zone (50%–38.2% retracement cluster, Ichimoku TK equilibrium, 20-day SMA, and daily pivot). Short-term momentum and structure favor a bounce toward 3,200–3,230 in the next 24 hours if 3,100–3,106 holds. Risk pivots below 3,050 and 3,000.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher-timeframe (Daily) context:

  • Primary trend since mid-September remains down (price below falling 50D/100D SMAs), but the November 21 low (≈2,627 intraday; ≈2,766 close) launched a strong counter-trend rally into Dec 10 (H≈3,446), creating a secondary up-leg.
  • The pullback from 3,446 to yesterday’s close 3,084 is corrective in character (declining volume and overlapping candles), not impulsive.
  • Current price 3,113 sits around the 38.2%–50% retracement band of the late-November to Dec 10 leg: • From 2,766→3,446: 50% ≈ 3,106; 61.8% ≈ 3,026. • From 2,627→3,446: 38.2% ≈ 3,133; 50% ≈ 3,036; 61.8% ≈ 2,940. • Spot is between 3,106 (50% of 2,766–3,446) and 3,133 (38.2% of 2,627–3,446) — a classic buy-the-dip confluence.
  • Yesterday (Dec 12) produced a wide-range down day (H 3,265 / L 3,050 / C 3,084) with a lower close but reduced volume vs Dec 10–11, hinting selling pressure is waning at support.

• Intraday (Hourly) structure:

  • Price carved a tight base between ~3,090 and ~3,125 with a brief push to 3,134 and quick re-acceptance above 3,100. Dips to 3,080–3,090 are being bought; highs stall near 3,125–3,135 — a coiling range after a drop, often a bullish continuation when formed atop higher-timeframe support.
  • Micro higher-lows vs yesterday’s 3,050 daily low indicate demand emerging above the key threshold.

2. Key levels and confluences

• Daily pivot set from Dec 12 (H 3,265.37 / L 3,050.27 / C 3,084.17):
  • P ≈ 3,133.27; R1 ≈ 3,216.27; S1 ≈ 3,001.17; R2 ≈ 3,348.38; S2 ≈ 2,918.17; R3 ≈ 3,431.37.
  • Price sits just under P (3,133). Reclaims above P typically target R1 (≈3,216) next.
• Moving averages:
  • 20D SMA (approx) ≈ 3,056: price is above, signaling short-term bullish bias.
  • 50D SMA likely above 3,500 given September prices; medium-term trend still down — rallies meet supply above 3,300–3,450.
• Ichimoku (daily, approximated):
  • Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (recent 9H + 9L)/2 ≈ (3,446 + 2,800)/2 ≈ 3,123.
  • Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ (3,446 + 2,766)/2 ≈ 3,106.
  • Price hovering at TK equilibrium (3,106–3,123) — a classic decision area. Holding above Kijun (≈3,106) favors a bounce; sustained loss below opens 3,026/3,000.
• Fibonacci confluence:
  • 50% (2,766–3,446) at 3,106 aligns with Kijun; 38.2% (2,627–3,446) at 3,133 aligns with pivot P — strong confluence band 3,106–3,133.
• Support:
  • 3,106 (Kijun/50%); 3,080–3,090 intraday shelf; 3,050 (yesterday’s low); 3,000/3,001 (psych S + S1). Below 3,000 opens 2,950–2,940 (61.8%) and 2,900.
• Resistance:
  • 3,133 (daily pivot P), 3,150–3,180 (intraday supply), 3,216 (R1), 3,237 (Dec 11 close), 3,321–3,325 (Dec 9–10 closes), 3,395–3,446 (swing high zone).

3. Momentum, volatility, and mean reversion

• RSI/MACD (qualitative read):
  • Daily momentum cooled from overbought after the run to 3,446; pullback breadth and volume suggest a corrective reset, with RSI likely mid-40s/50s area — room to bounce without immediate overbought risk.
  • Hourly momentum is stabilizing; basing near support after a selloff often preludes a relief push.
• Bollinger Bands (20D):
  • Mid-band ≈ 3,056; price re-anchored above. Upper band likely ~3,30x; lower ~2,81x. Reversion to mid succeeded; next typical step is a probe toward upper band if the base holds.
• ATR(14) daily (est.):
  • Recent ranges 156–215 produce an ATR around ~180–190. A 24h move of 3%–6% is plausible. From 3,113, that implies upside probes toward 3,210–3,230 without extraordinary conditions; downside tests 3,000–2,950 if support fails.
• VWAP (today, intraday):
  • Trading near/just above intraday VWAP indicates balanced-to-slightly-bid tape; acceptance above 3,120–3,133 would skew control to buyers.

4. Pattern diagnostics

• Falling wedge/corrective flag from Dec 10 high appears to have transitioned into a horizontal base 3,090–3,130. Breaks up from such bases are common when aligned with Fibonacci/Ichimoku/Pivot confluence.
• Micro AB=CD projection using the 3,084→3,134 thrust (~+$50) and ~3,104 pullback gives a 1.618 extension ≈ 3,185 and a 2.618 extension ≈ 3,236, bracketing R1 (3,216). This triangulates a 24h upside objective zone 3,185–3,236.

5. Order-flow and behavior cues

• Sequential lower daily volumes from Dec 10→12 during the drop indicate distribution pressure is not accelerating; responsive buyers are active near 3,050–3,100. Weekend liquidity suggests whipsaws, but thin books also enable clean runs to pivots when levels flip.

6. Risk map and invalidation

• Bullish case relies on holding 3,106–3,100. A decisive hourly close below 3,100 increases the probability of a 3,050 retest and, if lost, 3,001–3,000 (daily S1). A daily close back under 3,026 would threaten the rally’s structure and shift 24–48h bias to range/weakness.
• Upside invalidation of the bearish pullback would be acceptance above P=3,133 and a push into R1=3,216, where sellers likely re-appear; a firm hold above 3,216 opens 3,237 then 3,321–3,325.

7. 24-hour directional bias and path

• Base case (55–60%): Gradual bid holds 3,100–3,110, flip 3,133 (P), tag 3,185–3,216, with squeezes to 3,230–3,236 possible.
• Bear case (30–35%): Early fade below 3,100 → probe 3,080–3,050; if 3,050 fails, quick vacuum to 3,000–3,001 (S1) where dip-buyers likely defend.
• Tail (10%): Disorderly break of 3,000 leads to 2,950–2,940 (61.8%) before stabilizing.

8. Trade plan logic (for the next 24h)

• Rationale to Buy: Price sits on a multi-tool confluence (Fib 38.2–50%, daily pivot/TK equilibrium, above 20D SMA) with basing price action and decelerating sell volume. Risk is well-defined against 3,050/3,000. Reward skew favors a push toward R1 if pivot P is reclaimed.
• Optimal entry zone: Staggered bids 3,100–3,108; a single reference entry around 3,106 (Kijun/50% of the 2,766–3,446 leg) balances fill probability and R:R.
• Profit target (24h): 3,216 (daily R1; aligns with measured move extensions and intraday supply). Stretch targets 3,230–3,236 if momentum accelerates.
• (Risk note) A protective stop (not requested but prudent) would typically sit below 3,050 or more conservatively below 3,000 depending on risk tolerance.

Conclusion: Short-term mean-reversion plus structural support favors a Buy-the-dip setup aiming for a reclaim of the daily pivot and a push toward R1 in the next 24 hours, provided 3,100–3,106 continues to hold.