EOS Bear-Market Bounce Into Heavy Supply: High Odds of a 24h Fade Back to Pivot Support

Market Snapshot (EOS/USD)

• Current price: 0.094011
• Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-06 → 2026-02-03) + Hourly candles (last ~24h)
• Regime: Prolonged downtrend; recent intraday rebound inside a still-bearish structure.

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1) Multi-Timeframe Trend Structure

Daily trend (dominant)

• Price has fallen from ~0.26 (Nov) to ~0.094 (now) → a large -60% to -65% drawdown.
• Key bearish acceleration occurred 2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20, with a breakdown from ~0.17 to ~0.107 and continued bleed.
• Latest daily sequence:
  • 2026-01-29 close ~0.1018
  • 2026-01-31 low ~0.08445 / close ~0.09239 (capitulation wick)
  • 2026-02-02 close ~0.09542 (bounce)
  • 2026-02-03 daily low ~0.08854 / close ~0.09401 (lower low vs Feb 2, but recovered)

Conclusion (daily): Structure remains lower highs/lower lows. The bounce is corrective until reclaimed resistance zones are broken.

Hourly trend (tactical)

• Early in the session, EOS sold off to ~0.08868 (18:00), then rebounded sharply to ~0.09517 (20:00 high).
• After the rebound, price stalled near 0.0953 and pulled back to ~0.0940, suggesting supply overhead.

Conclusion (hourly): Short-term bounce is losing momentum under resistance; likely mean-reversion/downward drift unless it reclaims 0.0955+.

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2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action)

Supports

• S1: 0.0930–0.0933 (intraday pivot zone; multiple hourly closes/turns)
• S2: 0.0917–0.0920 (hourly swing area; earlier breakdown point)
• S3: 0.0885–0.0887 (session low; near-term “line in the sand”)
• S4: 0.0844–0.0850 (Jan 31 capitulation low; major downside magnet if S3 fails)

Resistances

• R1: 0.0952–0.0956 (hourly top / supply cap)
• R2: 0.0964 (Feb 2 high area)
• R3: 0.1005–0.1020 (Jan 30–31 breakdown zone; strong overhead)

Key takeaway: Price is currently below the main reclaim level (~0.100–0.102). That keeps the swing bias bearish.

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3) Volatility & Range Behavior (ATR-like read)

• Recent daily candles show wide ranges (e.g., Jan 31: ~0.1006 → 0.0844 range), implying elevated volatility.
• On the hourly, today’s low-to-high impulse was ~0.0887 → 0.0952 (~7%+), then a fade.

Implication: After sharp impulses in a bear trend, EOS often retraces part of the move (profit-taking + weak bid depth). This favors a tactical short near resistance rather than chasing longs.

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4) Volume / Participation (contextual)

• The largest daily volumes clustered around the sharp selloff (mid-Jan), consistent with distribution/capitulation.
• Recent bounce days show moderate participation; no clear evidence (from this dataset alone) of sustained accumulation.

Implication: Bounces are more likely relief rallies than trend reversals until higher levels are regained.

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5) Candlestick / Pattern Read

Daily

• Jan 31 printed a deep lower wick → capitulation-style wick, often followed by a rebound.
• But Feb 3 made another push down to ~0.0885 before recovering → suggests buyers defend, yet not strong enough to reverse trend.

Hourly

• Strong rebound candle sequence from 18:00–20:00 followed by stalling under 0.0953.
• This looks like a bear-market bounce into overhead supply (prior intraday breakdown area).

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6) Mean Reversion vs Trend-Following Synthesis

• Trend-following (daily): still Sell rallies until price reclaims at least 0.100–0.102.
• Mean-reversion (hourly): after a ~7% bounce into resistance, probability favors pullback to pivots (0.093 → 0.092) before any sustainable continuation.

This alignment (bear trend + bounce into resistance) supports a short setup.

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7) Next 24 Hours Price Movement (Forecast)

Base case (higher probability):

• EOS chops/fades lower from 0.094–0.095 area, retesting 0.0930, then 0.0917–0.0920.
• If risk-off accelerates, possible wick to 0.0907.

Bull invalidation scenario:

• A clean hourly reclaim and hold above 0.0956, then push through 0.0964, increases odds of extension toward 0.0985–0.1000. (Not my base case given the larger downtrend.)

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Trade Plan (24h tactical)

Rationale

• Shorting into R1 (0.0952–0.0956) aligns with: (1) dominant downtrend, (2) post-impulse mean reversion, (3) overhead supply.

Risk notes (important)

• EOS is very low-priced and volatile; wicks can be large. Consider smaller size and strict stops.

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Final Bias: Sell (Short)