BCH poised for a pivot reclaim: buy the 572–574 dip, aim for 601–604 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias for next 24 hours: Moderately bullish within a 560–604 consolidation band; expectancy favors a grind higher toward 593–602 if 585–589 pivot breaks and holds.
• Key levels: Support 560–562 (session S2 and 38.2% Fib), 572–574 (intraday shelf/S1), 580–582 (daily pivot zone). Resistance 593–596 (R1/previous supply), 601–606 (R2/upper range and recent swing highs).
• Plan: Buy-the-dip around 572–574 with target near 601–604; invalidate on decisive break back below 569/566 or especially 560–562.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily structure (Sep → Dec): After an October washout to ~470, BCH built a sequence of higher lows from late Nov (486 → 521 → 548/560) and higher highs into early Dec (to ~604). Price is currently consolidating above the November breakout area (540–555) and above the 20–50 day moving averages: constructive base-in-uptrend behavior.
• Recent regime (last 2–3 weeks): Range development 560–604 following the surge on Dec 3 (close ~591) and retests on Dec 7–8 (highs ~603–605). Rejections at ~604 are getting shallower while lows are defended near ~560: net bullish skew.
• Intraday (hourly, Dec 10): Sharp liquidity sweep to 560.7 at 03:00 UTC, then a staircase of higher lows and a reclaim of 572–576. The session has transitioned from sell-off to recovery, now compressing under 585–589 pivot with buyers defending pullbacks into 572–574.

2. Support/resistance map and confluence

• Major resistance: 601–606 (R2 cluster, range top, recent local highs on Dec 7–8 at 603.7–604.6). A clean break/hold above 606 would open 620–625, then 630s and ultimately 650 (Sept supply), but that’s beyond 24h scope.
• Intermediate resistance: 585–589 (intraday pivot shelf and prior reaction highs), 593–596 (classic R1 band overlapped with prior supply wicks).
• Primary supports: 572–574 (hourly shelf; classic S1 ~573.3), 560–562 (session S2 ~562.3; intraday low 560.7; 38.2% retracement of Nov 19 → Dec 8 impulse). Below 560 = opens 549–552 (50% Fib) quickly.

3. Moving averages (approximations from closes)

• SMA(5) ≈ 581.7: price (~577.6) slightly below — signals a minor pullback inside an uptrend.
• SMA(10) ≈ 568.5: price above — near-term momentum positive.
• SMA/EMA(20–21) ≈ mid-550s: price comfortably above — bullish bias.
• SMA(50) ≈ mid-540s to mid-550s: price above — trend confirmation.
• Slope check: 10/20/50-day slopes are gently rising; MA stack supportive of buy-the-dip tactics.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-50s to low-60s after early-Dec thrust and mild consolidation — room to push to 60–65 on a 593–602 lift.
• Hourly RSI: Recovered from oversold during the 560 sweep; now mid-50s. Not overbought; supports a further bid into resistance.
• Stochastic (hourly): Reset on the 03:00 low; curling up — favors continuation unless price stalls under 585–589 for long.
• CCI (hourly/daily): Back above zero on intraday; daily hovering mildly positive — aligns with constructive bias.
• MACD (daily): Above zero since the late-Nov breakout; histogram contracted during the recent range, now showing signs of re-expansion if 586–590 is reclaimed. Hourly MACD has flipped positive after the 560 reclaim.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily ≈ low-20s to ~30: implies a typical 24h swing of ~$22–$30. From 577, an upper excursion to 599–607 or a lower to 549–555 would be within statistical expectation. Given structure improvements, skew is modestly toward the upper tail.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Basis ≈ 555; upper ≈ 600–605; lower ≈ 505. Price rides upper half without tagging extremes: bullish consolidation.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 2*ATR): Price near mid-to-upper band; no squeeze, room for expansion.
• Donchian (20-day): High ≈ 604.6, low ≈ 521.7, mid ≈ 563.1. Price above the midline: buy-the-dip and breakout regimes favored.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price above cloud; Tenkan ≈ mid-570s, Kijun ≈ 560. Today’s wick to ~561 tagged Kijun area and bounced — classic bullish continuation behavior when price holds above Kijun and reclaims Tenkan.
• Hourly: Price either in/above a thin cloud with Tenkan above Kijun post-reclaim; cloud ahead mildly upward: supportive but still needs the neckline break (≈576.8–577.0, already tested) and then 585–589 for momentum expansion.

7. Volume/flow and breadth

• Volume surged on the early-Dec advance (Dec 3), then normalized during consolidation — textbook bullish digestion. Pullbacks have occurred on lighter volume; rallies toward the top of range bring healthier prints.
• OBV (qualitative): Higher since late Nov, pausing in the range but not meaningfully rolling over — accumulation more likely than distribution.
• MFI: Mid-50s bias with no divergence detected on the intraday reclaim — supports continuation.

8. Intraday microstructure, VWAP, and pivots (Dec 10 session)

• Liquidity sweep: 03:00 UTC flushed to 560.7 (stop run into S2/38.2% Fib), immediately reclaimed 562–566, stair-stepping to 576–582. Buyers absorbed lows and controlled the session thereafter.
• Session VWAP (qualitatively): Likely near high-560s to low-570s given heavy early volume on the dip; current price ~577 sits near/above VWAP — suggests fair-to-slightly-positive intraday posture.
• Classic pivots (computed from Dec 9 H/L/C: H 590.67, L 570.95, C 585.38):
  • Pivot P ≈ 582.0
  • S1 ≈ 573.3, S2 ≈ 562.3
  • R1 ≈ 593.1, R2 ≈ 601.7 The session tagged S2 and bounced, reclaimed S1, is oscillating just under P, and eyeing R1/R2 — strongly supports a long bias targeting 593 → 602.

9. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Major swing (Nov 19 low 486.0 → Dec 8 high 604.6):
  • 38.2% ≈ 559.2 (bounced intraday at 560–561)
  • 50% ≈ 545.3
  • 61.8% ≈ 531.0 Respecting 38.2% typically indicates strong trend health — bulls still in control.
• Intra-pattern: Inverse H&S visible on hourly (L shoulder ~564, Head ~561, R shoulder ~564) with neckline ~576.8. Break projects ~15–16 points above neckline → ~592 target, aligning with R1. A measured move extension points to ~601–604 if momentum persists.

10. Pattern and market structure synthesis

• Bullish flag/rectangle: 560–604 range after a strong leg higher; repeated defenses at 560–562 and compressions under 600 favor an eventual topside break, but even without the breakout the range provides clean mean-reversion buys near 572–574.
• Higher-low sequence: 560.7 (today) > prior key corrective low 560.5 (Dec 5) by a hair; buyers are front-running the level — subtle sign of strength.
• Failure conditions: A decisive close back below 569 → 566 would warn of a retest of 560; a clean loss of 560 negates the long setup and exposes 549–552 quickly (50% Fib).

11. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Post-dip impulse: 561 → 582 (i), 582 → 572 (ii), 572 → 586–589 (iii building), with (iv) likely shallow and (v) targeting 593–596; then a larger A–B–C or a breakout attempt to 601–604. The wave count supports a push to R1/R2 within 24h if 585–589 gives way.

12. ADX/DI (qualitative)

• Daily ADX in ~20–22 area: trend present but not extended; DI+ > DI− since late Nov; accommodates further trend development without overextension risk.

13. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (~55%): Grind higher. Hold above 572–574, reclaim P ~582, extend to R1 593–596; if momentum improved, tag R2 601–602. Close near 592–600.
• Bull breakout (~25%): Quick reclaim of 586–589, thin liquidity into 601–606. A closing hold above ~604 would shift the multi-day range higher and set up 620+ later, but that may be beyond 24h.
• Bear risk (~20%): Failure to hold 572–574, loss of 569/566 → retest 560–562. A clean break of 560 invalidates the long and opens 549–552 (next buy zone) — lower probability given current evidence.

14. Risk management notes

• Optimal dip entry: 572–574 (S1 shelf and intraday demand). Provides asymmetric risk:reward to R2.
• Protective context (not requested but prudent): A stop just below 559 (beneath S2/Fib 38.2% and today’s sweep) would keep adverse excursion contained; R:R to 601.7 ≈ 2:1.

Conclusion

• The confluence of: (i) higher-timeframe uptrend above 20–50D MAs, (ii) intraday sweep-and-reclaim at 560–562 (38.2% Fib & S2), (iii) pivot structure progression S2 → S1 → P with room to R1/R2, and (iv) emergent inverse H&S on hourly all bias the next 24 hours modestly upward. Best-in-class tactical play is a buy-the-dip into 572–574 targeting 601–604.

Next 24h expectation

• Expected range: 566–604
• Path: 572–574 support → reclaim 582 pivot → test 593–596 → attempt on 601–604.