AAVE at the 50% Fib: Pivot Magnet at 297 Sets Up a Weekend Bounce

Executive summary

• Base case (next 24h): AAVE holds the 290–295 support cluster, retests the daily pivot ~297, and advances toward 303–306 (R1/overhead supply). Probability-weighted path favors a rebound after a 3‑day pullback from the 334 peak.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip near 294–295 (limit), target 305–306 within 24h. Invalidation on decisive loss of 290 (closes below S1 and 61.8% major Fib).

1. Multi-timeframe context and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): Uptrend from late July low (261) to Aug 13 high (334.83). Current move is a corrective pullback within that trend. Price sits above the rising 20‑SMA (~285.3) and likely above the 50‑SMA (upper 270s/low 280s), but below the fast 5–10 day averages (5‑SMA ≈ 312.8; 10‑SMA ≈ 304.8). This is a textbook “bullish pullback” profile.
• Intermediate structure: After the Aug 13 top, three down days into a key demand zone around 50% Fib of the 7/31→8/13 leg. The 50% retracement of 261.05→334.83 is ~297.94; current 296.66 is straddling that magnet.
• Intraday (hourly, last 24h): Morning selloff to 292.0–292.5, then a staircase of higher lows (≈291.95 → 293.64 → 295.08) and modest higher highs into 296.8–297.0 — constructive basing under the pivot.

2. Key levels and confluence map

• Daily pivot set (based on 8/16 H/L/C ≈ 303.56/290.90/296.66):
  • Pivot P ≈ 297.04
  • S1 ≈ 290.52; S2 ≈ 284.39
  • R1 ≈ 303.18; R2 ≈ 309.69 These levels aligned perfectly with today’s extremes, increasing their tactical relevance for the next session.
• Fibonacci retracements:
  • Large swing (7/31 low 261.05 → 8/13 high 334.83): 50% ≈ 297.9, 61.8% ≈ 288.6. Price is pinned near 50%; 61.8% sits just below S1. Strong confluence under 290.
  • Smaller swing (8/9 low 290.33 → 8/13 high 334.83): 78.6% ≈ 299.8 was lost on 8/15 and retested today; 100% at 290.33 has not broken. That preserves the “higher‑low” potential.
• Horizontal S/R:
  • Support: 290–295 (prior closes 8/8–8/11; today’s low 290.9; S1 290.5; 61.8% of major leg at 288.6 just beneath).
  • Resistance: 303–306 (R1 303.2; intraday supply from the 303.6 open spike; cluster of 10‑SMA ~304.8). Above that, 309–310 (R2) and 312–314 (daily congestion from mid‑Aug).

3. Indicators and oscillators

• Moving Averages:
  • 20‑SMA ≈ 285.3 (price above: trend bias intact).
  • 10‑SMA ≈ 304.8; 5‑SMA ≈ 312.8 (price below: near-term corrective phase). Mean reversion pull tends upward toward the 10‑SMA once the pullback stabilizes.
• RSI(14) daily ≈ 64 (estimated from last 14 closes). Still bullish, no overbought; the pullback eased momentum but did not flip to bearish.
• Stochastics (daily, qualitative): mid‑range (~55%) given current location between the recent swing low/high; room to the upside without overbought constraints.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Positive spread but rolling over since 8/13; histogram contracted over last 2–3 days, consistent with a corrective pause rather than trend reversal. A shallow bearish phase within a larger bullish regime often resolves upward near MA support.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near 20‑SMA (~285). Upper ~low 320s, lower ~mid 240s (approx.). Price pulled back from an upper-band tag (8/13) toward the mid-band region; mean reversion suggests stabilization with a bias to re-expand upward if support holds.
• ATR(14) daily ≈ 15–17 (est.). Implies a typical 24h range of ±5–6% from the pivot. Using this, an upside travel to R1/R2 is feasible in one session if buyers press.
• Ichimoku (daily, approximated): Price likely below Tenkan (fast baseline reflecting recent highs) but near/above Kijun (~295 area). First supportive check at the Kijun is consistent with mean reversion buys in an uptrend.
• OBV/Volume read: Elevated volume into the 8/13 top (735M) followed by heavy distribution on 8/14–15 (830M/553M). Today’s intraday build shows stabilization with absorption around 292–296. Net: a short-term distribution event now probing demand; if demand is real, an upside response should materialize from this 290–295 shelf.

4. Pattern diagnostics

• Pullback into support: Three-day decline into a dense confluence zone (50% Fib + pivot + Kijun + prior closes). That’s a high-probability “buy-the-dip” region in trending markets.
• Intraday basing: Higher-lows sequence after the morning flush and reclaim attempts just under the pivot (≈297). Microstructure suggests sellers are tiring near S1, with buyers defending every dip above 292.
• Bear flag risk: The 303→292 slide could be seen as a flag; however, the subsequent higher lows and inability to lose S1 argue for a neutralization of that risk unless 292 fails.

5. Quantified scenarios (next 24h)

• Bullish (60%): Early retest of 294–295, reclaim pivot 297, accelerate to R1 303–304, overshoot into 305–306 (10‑SMA pocket). Possible late-session extension to 309 (R2) on momentum.
• Range-bound (30%): Oscillation 292–299 around the pivot without decisive breakout; net close ~298–301.
• Bearish (10%): Clean break of 292 leads to a sweep toward 288.5–289 (61.8% major Fib) and possibly S2 ~284.4 on stop cascade. Less likely unless broader market weakens materially.

6. Auxiliary techniques and cross-checks

• Pivot clusters agree with Fib and MA confluence: 294–298 acts as a ‘magnet’/launchpad; 303–306 is the first logical profit zone.
• Regression/Trendline: Rising trendline off 7/31–8/6 pullback anchors intersects ~291–293 today; price respected it intraday.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): Wave 3 peak at 334.8; current pullback plausibly a wave 4 into the 0.5–0.618 retrace band. A developing wave 5 could begin with a push back over 303–306.
• VWAP (intraday, qualitative): Reclaims into the high‑296/297 area typically unlock momentum into low‑300s when dips are absorbed; today’s action mirrors that pattern.
• Candlestick context (daily): Small red body with a longer lower tail versus body, printed at a major Fib/pivot area — a common reversal motif if confirmed by next candle strength.

7. Risk management and execution plan

• Entry: Prefer a limit buy on a controlled pullback into 294–295 (front‑running the 50% Fib/near Kijun and right below the pivot). Alternative momentum entry on firm reclaim and hold above 297.2, but the optimal RR is on the dip.
• Target: 305–306 (R1 zone + 10‑SMA pocket). Stretch target 309–310 (R2) if momentum/market beta cooperate.
• Invalidation: A decisive break/close below 290 turns the setup from ‘buy-the-dip’ to ‘wait’; that would expose 288.6 (61.8% Fib) and potentially 284.4 (S2).
• Indicative RR: Entry 294.5, TP 305.8 (+3.8%); suggested protective stop (not part of the hard output fields) around 289.9 (−1.6%). RR ~2.4:1.

Conclusion Confluence at 294–298 (Fib 50%, daily pivot, trendline support, Kijun-proxy, intraday higher lows) argues for a tactical long. Expect a 24h pivot reclaim and push into 303–306. Only a loss of 290 would negate and shift bias to a deeper retrace toward 288/284.